I don’t think you can compare car and aircraft sales. A car is – especially in the US – a necessity. An airplane is mostly not. I’m sure there is a lot of pent-up demand in the US where people held back on new car purchases for a few years and now that the economy is picking up again, they go out and buy. Also, don’t forget all the financing schemes in place for cars.
As for losing interest in flying – here I think you are correct, although where I fly from in the US at KSMO the number of ab-initio students who do not want to progress to the airlines and just want to fly for fun has gone up significantly over the last year. So there is some good news!
The main reason for the decline in my opinion is that people are losing interest in flying… …. There weren’t Easyjet flights for 19 € either taking to you everywhere you can imagine.
I think so too. There are few things where you get less value for money than buying and flying (small – up to about airliner size) aeroplanes. For the price of a Cirrus (around half a million Euros?) you can buy a beautiful family home and have enough money left for a free family holiday for the next 50 years. For the price of a bizjet you can buy a whole business that will support you and your family for generations…
When the Cirrus sales where booming there were a general optimistic tending naive believe that you could buy something like an airplane or a house and that it would either increase in value or at least retain its value.
Today with a more realistic view, as has been discussed here recently the purchase of a brand new airplane is going to cost you considerable funds that will not come back when selling.
That alone will limit sale considerable.
I would agree that there is not a lot of price flexibility in the “market”. If an SR22 cost 100k, they would not sell thousands, because (apart from the fact that most leisure pilots would feel overwhelmed) the running costs would still be way too high for most private pilots. I would say that even if one didn’t have to account for financing and depreciation, the operating cost would (in Europe) hardly go below 300 Euros an hour (at least if flying less than 150 hours a year).
Want an example? I am just back from a short trip to the shop due to corroded nose wheel bearings on the 22. Turns out that the original bearing seal is poor quality and often allows humidity and dirt to creep in. However, there are “improved” seals available. Know what these improved seals (need two of them for the nosewheel) cost? 90 Euros each, plus tax!
90 Euros each, plus tax!
Peanuts. Last week, the screen of our Honewell FMS broke. Just the LCD screen, all the rest was still working. Today, the exchange unit was installed. 23.000Euros + labour. Expect similar figures when the screen of a Garmin 1000 (or similar) goes blank. One can hire a plane for a lot of hours for 20 kEuros…
My car is 43 years young, my ’plane is a sprightly 63 years old.
What would I look for in a new ’plane? An updated Cessna 170B, with the safety technology of the 172SP, might get me out of hibernation – but the price point would keep me in re furbished early C-180s until I hung up my headsets.
The Legend Cub comes in at $150k+, and is trying to be an L18C.
Joking aside, I estimate the typical flying school is probably turning off a good 50% of its market because they operate shagged out aircraft.
The next question is whether you can charge €300/hour for a new 172SP/DA40 and make a return on investment. Even if legacy schools are still charging €200/hour.
Peanuts
The difference is: you don’t pay these things from your taxed, disposable income!
New Vans RVs are being flown at the rate of approximately 1.5 per day, or let’s say 550 per year. That compares with less than 1000 from all the GAMA manufacturers combined. Meanwhile both my certified aircraft are worth about the same as one RV, which is great for me… but it shows where the market has gone.
PS my latest propeller control problem cost $390 to fix, parts and A&P labor combined. That included a new battery that wasn’t directly associated with the problem. I prefer it that way 
I knew Cirrus were selling less but didn’t realise how much less.
The US are going strong as the biggest economy and several European economies, too.
However not every part of an economy is going strong. The basic utilities and essentials are doing well. But e.g. financial services? I think a lot of new planes (which in the SEP context means mostly Cirrus) are bought by what is called “froth”
and a big part of that always fizzles out when times get a bit tight. I’ve been in business since 1978 and have seen this a number of times. Looking at people I know personally, I don’t think many people who make their money gradually over years buy new planes. Some will (I did in 2002, £200k) but they are rare. Most shiny new stuff is bought by people who have made money more quickly than they are accustomed to spending wisely. Most of these people make money fast when times are good and lose money fast afterwards. To my permanent amazement, most of them don’t put much away when they are making it; they just spend it on lifestyle stuff. When the sh**t hits the fan, all they are left with is a used Ferrari, and a wife with a boob job who will be looking for the next bus
And I am sure this applies at every level including bizjets.
Also, business today (I am in industrial electronics) is very different to say 5-6 years ago. Everybody I deal with is tight. Customers are carefully ordering stuff to be delivered early each month (max time to pay), and there are some pretty unethical supplier-screwing practices being done by some big US firms I deal with.
The main reason for the decline in my opinion is that people are losing interest in flying.
Sure that is a major long term factor, but I don’t think it’s a factor in the rapid Cirrus decline. This has not changed since say 2005. In fact IFR is easier now than in 2005. Much easier in Europe and probably easier in the USA due to the improved preflight and in-flight data services.
I think the Cirrus decline is due mainly to two factors: their major-profile customer isn’t making a big buck anymore, and they have offloaded so many planes into the market that there is no room left for any more, so the used values have plummetted which even more undermines any case for buying a new one.
Interesting figures.
Fact is, the market is tiny. And while there is a very small recovery, it looks as if it will remain tiny.
I wonder why Tecnam is not included? At least their fully certified airplanes should be. And for 2014, it will be interesting to see how newcomers like Pipistrel will do (Panthera) and how some market re-entries will fare.
Generally, not many surprises there: In the SEP Market Cirrus still is the leader with 276 sold airplanes followed by Cessna (206), Piper (143) and Diamond (117).
The basic airplanes still sell:
C172 : 106
DA40: 102
PA28: 50
SR20: 32
For the high performance singles, Cirrus is clearly ahead of everyone.
SR22: 244
PA46: 58 (piston)
C182: 39
BE36: 35
C400: 21
PARO: 1
In comparison, the piston twins are still on a very low level.
Baron: 35
Seminole: 23
DA42: 22
Seneca: 22
Would be interesting to know how many 2006’s Tecnam sold.
Some rather interesting figures can also be found in the full report Databook.
The fleets sold between 1999 and 2013 are quite interesting to see.
SEP:
Bonanza: 878
Cessna 172: 4509
Cessna 182: 3012
Corvalis : 839 (includes all Columbia/Corvalis produced)
SR20 : 1198
SR22 : 4365
DA40 : 1676
Mooney : 634 (M20M-M20TN), whereof 317 Ovations and 126 Acclaims, that is 443 of the current production models.
PA 28 : 1304
Arrow : 131
Malibu : 629
TB 20/1 : 206
Cessnas conventional 4 seaters win the total numbers here with 7521 sold units followed by Cirrus with 5563 sold SR 2x airframes. The DA40 beats the PA28 by about 370 airframes. The Columbia/Corvalis brings up the rear end.
In the retracable section, Mooneys and Malibus are even out followed by the discontinued TB20 and the Arrow.
MEP:
Baron : 511
DA42 : 687
PA34: 394
PA44: 328
A lot of information in these reports.
Looking at the average age of registered GA airplanes, that age in 2012 was a staggering 43.4 years for SEP’s and 40.2 years for MEP’s
Interesting also are the figures of registered GA airplanes over the years. A few examples in the <2ton SEP cathegory:
Germany has kept more or less constant with around 6750 SEP’s registered throughout the 2000’s until 2013
France comparatively has much fewer airframes registered for the size of the country, around 2000. France however has a very high N-Reg fleet.
Switzerland has also kept fairly constant between 1997 and 2012 with around 1500 airframes.
The UK has different figures: Airplanes below 750 kg have increased by 1100 airframes to since 1989. The fleet between 750kg and 5.7 tons has increased by 500 airframes in the same period to 5500. .
