I am looking at flying from the Uk to deauville LFRG this coming Saturday for a family event (marginal pressure to find a way to get there)
The long term forecast as of now (Tuesday) is for Saturday to be quite windy at 190@17G28 which exceed my xwind limit for deauville RW12 but not at Le Havre RW22
If it wasn’t for custom PN of 48h I would wait closer to the date, but I need to decide by Thursday:
1) book custom for arriving Le havre Saturday départ Sunday (and take Uber to deauville)
2) book custom for Sunday round trip to deauville on Sunday as wind better that day. Miss the Saturday main event but at least attend Sunday
3) cancel if weather beyond limit which I will decide on the day
I am curious what the community thinks?
A) Can we book the customs on two airports for the same weekend and cancel later the one we don’t need?
B) any local have a view in the forecast around deauville for Saturday?
Just give the 48hr PN anyway. If you don’t go, nobody will care. No need to cancel the PN.
a) Yes, and no need to cancel 
b) From windy.com, nice wx, wind southerly 16-18kt, but too early to be sure
Peter wrote:
a) Yes, and no need to cancel
Thanks! I’ll do that and keep my option opened until last moment
b) From windy.com, nice wx, wind southerly 16-18kt, but too early to be sure
windy indicates now gusts 30 to 35 depending on the model for Saturday morning, got even worse from what I looked earlier. so unless that changes direction and improves, likely will be the Sunday round trip… We’ll see closer to the date
I can‘t see any such high winds in the forecast for Saturday in the Deauville area (but then I don‘t use windy, maybe that‘s why ). 15-20 knots rather, which is rather normal for the area in spring. But yes, pretty much a crosswind it will be. And weather generally worse on Sunday.
In case you go to Le Havre: consider renting a car via getaround. There is a friendly, reliable guy renting out his Toyota directly from the airfield. I did that a few weeks ago (to go to Deauville, top). If interested, set up a getaround account and contact him.
roznet wrote:
windy indicates now gusts 30 to 35 depending on the model for Saturday morning, got even worse from what I looked earlier.
Windy often grossly overestimates gusts and I am not entirely sure why. But I have noticed that if you look at winds at 330 ft that often gives a better indication of what gusts you can expect on the day than looking at their “wind gust” layer. But of course check the METAR/TAF on the day, those give much better surface wind and gust indications.
Windy often grossly overestimates gusts and I am not entirely sure why. But I have noticed that if you look at winds at 330 ft that often gives a better indication of what gusts you can expect on the day than looking at their “wind gust” layer. But of course check the METAR/TAF on the day, those give much better surface wind and gust indications.
Thanks that’s very useful.
Yes the final decision is always on TAF/METAR.
But I am trying to learn how to get better longer term sense of feasibility as always lots of logistics issues to decide early, hotel, cars, customs, etc etc
Looking at the Skew Ts forecast for Friday at Rouen (they are only forecasting until friday 9h00 UTC at present) it is showing surface winds in the area, which would include Le Havre and Deauville, of 30kts to 40kts varying from 190° to approx 250°.
At altitudes this is showing as much stronger of course.
The fronts forecast is showing that this is likelto get worse for Saturday and perhaps Sunday depending on how fast the front progresses.
I don’t know if this is of any use to you but I will not be flying the ULM up there this weekend unless there is a major change.
The fronts forecast is showing that this is likelto get worse for Saturday and perhaps Sunday depending on how fast the front progresses.
I don’t know if this is of any use to you but I will not be flying the ULM up there this weekend unless there is a major change.
This is very useful. I also feel Saturday likely bad from all these, and currently plan and booked custom for day trip on Sunday. Let’s see how it evolves
To close the loop, went to Deauville day trip today.
Custom was there, the officer told me she was here all day today, ultra friendly, and told me no worries if I want to adjust the departure time dynamically during the day.
Wind was worth than expected from the forecast, but manageable, and beautiful Sunday day in Deauville.
Thanks for he advice.
