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PA28R G-EGVA missing UK to Le Touquet (and AAIB discussion)

So super cooled water possible inside?

Cruising at 6kft with 3kft FZL and 9kft tops in TCU, depending on the timing you could pick sh**t load of icing there, tons of it, the kind that get splashed on windshield right as you enter and disables your radio & propeller !

But there is a quick clear way out:
- Clouse-base was high, 3kft FZL and no terrain if you lose height
- It will be localised and flying upwind laterally is more than enough

Keep in mind if you pick ice from convective clouds in turbulent air, you won’t be able to outclimb them, if you can make 8kft climb in 200hp NA SEP without stalling you should ask for an entry in Guinness Records

I don’t think an IR pilot will be dead over there (it’s not a CB full of lightning and plenty of exit option) but it’s definetly not an easy IMC ride, your pax will never ever fly with you again

Last Edited by Ibra at 16 May 14:29
Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

If I didn’t have TKS, I would not penetrate that sort of cloud unless below the 0C level. But why would you? It is only below 1500ft that the CAA busts chief will be out to get you.
Otherwise, I’ve flown through that loads of times.

Re passengers never flying with you again, that’s a fair bet but it depends on the passengers. I would not do it on the first date
Unkrainian women will prob99 be OK with it

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

@alioth I stand corrected!

EGLM & EGTN



This is the one I remember from before I got my IMC rating.

United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

I’d say it depends on whether your passenger is your other half and whether you would like her to fly with you ever again

The biggest issue with flying with my girlfriend is her constant need for the loo!

EGTF, United Kingdom

Ibra wrote:

Cruising at 6kft with 3kft FZL and 9kft tops in TCU, depending on the timing you could pick sh**t load of icing there, tons of it, the kind that get splashed on windshield right as you enter and disables your radio & propeller !

But there is a quick clear way out:
- Clouse-base was high, 3kft FZL and no terrain if you lose height
- It will be localised and flying upwind laterally is more than enough

Keep in mind if you pick ice from convective clouds in turbulent air, you won’t be able to outclimb them, if you can make 8kft climb in 200hp NA SEP without stalling you should ask for an entry in Guinness Records

I don’t think an IR pilot will be dead over there (it’s not a CB full of lightning and plenty of exit option) but it’s definetly not an easy IMC ride, your pax will never ever fly with you again

I flew across the channel IFR that day and had to avoid (Using the Golze & MK II eyeball) to get to LFAT as the cells were very intense, cloud bases were down to the surface almost and tops FL100-FL110 with sporadic tops above that. Very much pulse cells so incredibly short-lived and powerful. I think they had CB characteristics, but very small in nature.

I wouldn’t have wanted to have flown inside them, especially with the icing risk that day. But avoiding the weather considering the Swiss cheese model with flying into that type of cloud, your chances would probably have been better in a more turbulent summer CB with minimal icing in the lower levels.

I remember during IR training when we went through the edge of › 32 (mm/hour) CB and that was not pretty, other than a very quick climb rate from FL70 to FL90 and lots of disorientating speed deviations resulting in moderate to severe turbulence it was survivable.

Peter wrote:

Re passengers never flying with you again, that’s a fair bet but it depends on the passengers. I would not do it on the first date
Unkrainian women will prob99 be OK with it

Where are you picking up Ukrainian women? ;)

Qualified PPL with IR SP/SE PBN
EGSG, United Kingdom

pilotrobbie wrote:

I flew across the channel IFR that day and had to avoid (Using the Golze & MK II eyeball) to get to LFAT as the cells were very intense, cloud bases were down to the surface almost and tops FL100-FL110 with sporadic tops above that. Very much pulse cells so incredibly short-lived and powerful. I think they had CB characteristics, but very small in nature. I wouldn’t have wanted to have flown inside them, especially with the icing risk that day. But avoiding the weather considering the Swiss cheese model with flying into that type of cloud, your chances would probably have been better in a more turbulent summer CB with minimal icing in the lower levels. I remember during IR training when we went through the edge of › 32 (mm/hour) CB and that was not pretty, other than a very quick climb rate from FL70 to FL90 and lots of disorientating speed deviations resulting in moderate to severe turbulence it was survivable.

The dew point and temps were low that day, I don’t think loss of control in thermal turbulence would have been very challenging for IR rated pilots? this was not 45C dew point CB, it was 6deg OAT flying, however, flying at 5kft with FZL/OVC at 3kft and tops at +FL120 in vertical cloud, you are guaranteed to get splashed with icing, doing it without extensive IMC experience, you will not walk from it…

In summer convective weather (hot dew points and +10C increase every hour), even bellow FZL it’s likely to result in loss of control and discomfort due to severe turbulence, your pax will never ever fly with you again even if the whole flight happens in VMC, assuming they were strapped and their head is not knocking cockpit ceiling !

Last Edited by Ibra at 17 Oct 09:17
Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

No IR.

They were boxed in by the prohibited airspace below 2000ft and above FL075. Posted further back.

Unusual weather – a wall of IMC, not very long to transit through.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Yes no IR but I am not sure how much IMC experience (on PPL or lapsed IMCR or 10h BSRFI) they had in the past?

Surely this was not the first time they went into clouds (they had plenty of options and went for the straight one, maybe due to hourly flying costs? or group fly-in dynamics?), they surely went zillions of time in benign stratus or cumulus before, this time it was a different type of clouds…

Last Edited by Ibra at 17 Oct 09:28
Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

Ibra wrote:

Yes no IR but I am not sure how much IMC experience (on PPL or lapsed IMCR) they had in the past?

According to CAA, they never had an IR or IR(R) or IMCR.

EGTR
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