Alpha_Floor wrote:
Same thing when one compares owning a car vs. taking taxis or renting for a trip. Even though people may work out it turns out to be cheaper to rent a car or take taxis everywhere, this is only true if one lays ZERO value on the immense freedom one has when owning the equipment.
Fully agree with this, and the reason I got into flying in the first place. The freedom to go places, when you want, how you want, how often you want. Money is a limiting factor unless you are a billionaire in aviation – there are always bigger, faster toys out there, but the freedom remains the same…
Peter wrote:
Also you never recover money spent on avionics when you sell.
Absolutely not the case in the US. The price differential between upgraded (mostly glass or more often semi-glass) to standard steam gauge panels is enormous, mostly more than when the upgrade would cost. Buyers just know how much pain any panel upgrade is and the unpredictable costs associated with it.
Peter wrote:
fly more, and spend less on avionics
I’m in that gang. That is why:
I identified the minimum investment I could do to get max functionality. I also considered a couple of G5’s but the functionality was way less for more money unless I switched autopilots. Had I done the latter there would have gone my flying budget for transatlantic crossing and a lot of flying …needless to say which one I picked
@Peter and @Antonio agree. I would certainly invest in making sure the airframe and power plant were in excellent condition, before spending 30-100AMU on avionics.
@172driver if that was the case in the USA Vref would not have such a heavy depreciation rate on avionics, basically after ten years value reduces close to zero.
The Prime Condition Aircraft, as they are known, have updated panels, but also excellent airframe/power plant/history.
Quite a few owners have spent a small fortune on a panel update just to find there is a very expensive AD which has not been complied with, or spar/crankshaft corrosion etc rendering the investment somewhat depreciated. A big chunk of the upgrade is going to the avionics shop.
For a single crew simple SEP a basic set up for light IFR always seems to me proportionate.
RobertL18C wrote:
@172driver if that was the case in the USA Vref would not have such a heavy depreciation rate on avionics, basically after ten years value reduces close to zero.
Sure, but 10 years equate to about 1000 to 1500 hours in private ownership, many more in a club or training situation, which means a largely run-out airplane anyway. All the ads I see have a vast delta between overhauled and not overhauled panel. That said, I’m only really looking at IFR tourers, bush / backcountry planes are obviously a different kettle of fish.
RobertL18C wrote:
For a single crew simple SEP a basic set up for light IFR always seems to me proportionate.
Totally agree. And there are deals to be had in that space.
Snoopy wrote:
The hike in plane prices could be due to the amount of older planes which is steadily decreasing and the acquisition cost of new planes is, well, almost ten fold. So the price delta between used and new paired with diminishing supply of affordable planes warrants higher prices.
Not sure really.
There is a shortage at the moment on various popular types, but I doubt it is because they get taken out of circulation, but owners keep them. Twin Comanches in recent years were always between 5 and 10 for sale on PC, now 1 and a project. Mooneys usually in the 2 page range, now half a page. Cessna 210’s around 3-4. The choice has massively reduced and prices are very much up. There were K and J Mooneys well below 100k with KFC150 and plenty potential, now these go well above up to double. There was even an F which got sold at around 100k here in Switzerland.
some years ago you could find a workable Seneca II (FIKI, mid term engines, GNS430 and AP, some with radar even) in the 50-70k range. Now 100-150 range.
Also the insanely low prices for Cessna twins has reverted to something much more reasonable. No more 70 k Golden Eagles, they are back in the 250k range. Looking for a Crusader? None available.
Quite possibly Covid has done this, as airlines all of a sudden became less available and people don’t like to be together with others. Public transport has taken a hit and also there are more people reverting back to cars. In any case, the price hike is noticable.
If I sold my M20J now, I might almost break even!
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Quite possibly Covid has done this, as airlines all of a sudden became less available and people don’t like to be together with others. Public transport has taken a hit and also there are more people reverting back to cars. In any case, the price hike is noticable.
I believe there is zero correlation between covid/people avoiding airliners/private seps going up in price.
People don’t deviate to SEPs instead of airliners.
Now, for turbines and jets, yes, there is a noticeable increase in demand from the affluent to fly privately (aka privatejet boom).
Snoopy wrote:
I believe there is zero correlation between covid/people avoiding airliners/private seps going up in price.
From what I see and hear in the US, that’s not entirely correct. Covid has shone a very harsh light on mass transport and people are trying to avoid that. While I agree that most of the Covid-induced ‘boom’ is at the mid to top end of the market (prob90 actually more in the middle), there definitely are people buying into the SEP / MEP space. It’s almost as if the kitchen table conversations had reversed: from ‘why do you spend all that money on an airplane, we could extend the house’ to ‘why don’t you get your medical back so we can fly to lake Tahoe without going through LAX’.
Snoopy wrote:
I believe there is zero correlation between covid/people avoiding airliners/private seps going up in price.People don’t deviate to SEPs instead of airliners.
A great many I know do no longer fly on airliners(due to the test regimes and the unspeakable conditions on board with no food, no drink and masks) but drive themselfs to where they want to go. This is particularly visible in the ethnic travel segment, where people travel to their homelands, mostly the Balkans, Italy or Spain, 4-5 times a year. Also, travelling by car mostly got them around testing and quarantine requirements, if not legally than illegaly.
What Covid has done for a great many people however is that it has saved them massive amounts of expenses, hence there is more money available for fun stuff. Nonwithstanding all the complaints by people who have been hit hard, many people who have had their jobs going on normally in terms of salary have found that having all entertainment closed, most vaccation spots unavailable and generally a lot less to do end up with a lot less expenses. Personally, I have had several people I coached in the last year getting serious about buying a plane than before. Partly because there was more money but for many also more time to browse planecheck e.t.c. and more time to think what they want to do with themselfs.
Covid has caused several booms. One was in RV’s, another very visible one was into installing swimming pools in their gardens last summer and also online shopping exploded.
So honestly, if I look at the plane market today, the impact of 2020 has been beyond any belief I would have had in 2019. Just look at the listings. For some types where there used to be a massive overhang in offers vs people who were looking, today there are quite a few popular makes which have next to no planes offered. And no, I don’t believe, at least in Europe, that is because they get scrapped, but because prices have gone up significantly so those who have a plane hang on to it or offer on much higher price.
While you are probably correct that not many will go for an SEP instead of airlines, still some will but more will fly SEP’s instead of other activities they can’t do any longer. It will be seen how that changes once restrictions are lifted, but as that will take some years until travelling will be remotely what it was, for now the plane market is much more attractive for sellers than it was.
