A pity you didn’t go, looking at tomorrow, an early morning start would have allowed you a quick climb to FL75 above the clouds or, starting by around noon would have given you a few minutes in the mire…. A pity, would have also headed over to say hello, based nearby…..
Today’s weather was very bizarre over these low countries. According to forecast, the day was to start foggy, soon to turn brilliant but would close down shortly after noon. I never saw any morning fog, even had a nice flight – from my homefield EBZH to EBAV then due west, passing south of Brussels then skirting the CTR below the TMA at 1300’ AMSL, from the unmissable transmitter mast at Sint Pieters Leeuw north to Dendermonde then through the “corridor” between the EBBR and EBAW CTR’s, remaining well below 1500, then BRUNO and back home – close on 2 hours, with indicated ground speeds anything between 55 kts and 95. A great flight and would have been even greater if the A6 transmitter section hadn’t given up soon after take-off.
Weather was predicted to close down around 13:00 UTC yet remained clear all afternoon; the last arrival was around 16:00 UTC but with a ceiling of only 1300.
Never trust the weather! Trust forecasts even less! But today we were on the lucky side, for once.
Dortmund would have been easy today. It’s tomorrow that I had to cancel it due, on the balance of probability.
Oddly enough the Univ of Wyoming site is not showing any data for 1200Z today so I can’t do a post-mortem. I wonder if it is down. There used to be a source at the Univ of Cologne but I can no longer fin it at the original URL; not speaking German doesn’t help.
The Jeppesen icing forecast looks almost clear tomorrow for FL050-150 Dortmund to Shoreham by midday.
There is absolutely no way whatsoever under any circumstances I would rely on an “icing forecast”. I’ve seen too much of this stuff. I find that solid IMC between 0C and about -10C is prob90 ice – within say half an hour.
There is absolutely no way whatsoever under any circumstances I would rely on an “icing forecast”. I’ve seen too much of this stuff. I find that solid IMC between 0C and about -10C is prob90 ice – within say half an hour.
Ummm, OK. So why bother asking the forum for their views? You seem to be clear on the decision. Never flying below 0 in IMC will certainly avoid icing but it will also cancel a lot of trips that could have been made safely.
In fact this is also one of the criticisms made against OGIMET etc regarding their prediction of icing. I am by no means an expert however I find a selection of these tools is very helpful in predicting icing and severity. There are of course no certainties in any of this.
So why bother asking the forum for their views?
There is far more to assessing wx than this one thing. The flight EGKA-EDLW is about 2hrs, plus or minus the wind. The airmass for tomorrow looks fairly uniform along the route – well, to the extent that the MSLP charts for 1200 tomorrow change a lot every time they are updated. So, in this case it does translate to my usual TB20 strategy which is not doing freezing IMC enroute which in turn translates to finding out the cloud tops and the thickness of any layer one has to climb through (and in this case the escape route of descent into warm air is missing at the German end). In your turboprop Jason you can do a lot more icing, but also you can outclimb most wx.
In this case I reckon the tops won’t be too high for the enroute section. All the stuff circled is definitely flyable VMC on top
but there looks a fair chance of the freezing layer being too thick for landing with the ice one picks up (not good but usually doable because one is descending anyway, so performance is not an issue) and more to the point for Sunday equally thick for taking off when performance is definitely an issue and with surface temps so low that’s a really crap situation to find oneself in. Didn’t that PA46 crash the other day with reported icing, soon after takeoff?
There are of course no certainties in any of this
That is why one always must have a way out, and often in the winter, for a non deiced SEP, the usual way out is missing, so one needs to maintain (essentially) VMC.
For a flight in freezing IMC, icing forecasts are usable for a non deiced plane only if you maintain the way out – a descent into warm air. If you find yourself above 8000ft thickness of icing conditions and SFC temp is say 0C (i.e. you have cut off your way out), and the forecast says there won’t be ice, you need solid steel balls, or a death wish, or an SR22 with the chute.
I agree but am not talking about a turboprop. We are discussing your TB20. I gather from what you have said that it is very tolerant of airframe ice (unlike say a Cirrus). Even predicting cloud, thickness and tops is almost impossible. So when you are doing your analysis for your aircraft are you trying to climb up over visible moisture, cruise in the clear and descend in the clear as well? Or are you happy to climb/descend through possible icing?
Post edits crossed, I think.
The layer thickness for today’s departure to Shoreham would be interesting, given the 3000ft base
EDLW 081120Z 35011KT 9999 BKN033 03/M03 Q1029 RMK ATIS O
and the tops showing here
With +6C on the ground, it will be 0C and thus potential icing the moment you enter the cloudbase, and you still have ~7000ft to go to escape it.
If the SFC temp was say -6C that would be OK.
