RobertL18C wrote:
Unless you naturally maintaining a high degree of currency am not a believer in the theory that better equipment improves safety. Professional pilots typically fly 600 to 800 hours a year. Unless you are flying a complex type more than 100-150 hours a year, and use SOPs, I would suggest a simple fixed gear SEP is a major risk enhancer.
I think the fact that we fly for fun with some flexibility is what improves GA safety, being just risk averse will kill all of your confidence and currency !
One can have “100% flying dispatch rate” in GA (I did almost that last year) but not necessarily to the planned destinations (say in winter when freezing level and frontal moisture are around at 1500ft, you can still go for local circuits or to nearby airfields at 1200ft in a SEP safely, doing 200nm leg that day will be just stupid, better left for orange/blue tubes with somebody paid to do it 
)
denopa wrote:
MMOPA has released a self-assessment tool for free on the Apple App Store (search MMOPA FRAT).
Looks like I can’t go flying tomorrow:
My destination has no approach procedure: 11 points.
Inop or no autopilot for IFR flight: 7 points (it’s a 35 minutes flight in VMC – IFR).
I have non-pilot passengers: 5 points.
Almost 12 months since recurrent training: 4 points
40 hours last 90 days: 3 points (above 50 hours adds 0 points, below 30 is 5 points)
Hours on type: 300: 3 points.
Rwy length less than accelerate/stop: 3 points.
CFI rated: ÷3 points.
Score 33 points. Below 15 is ok, 15 to 24 is “caution”, and 25 and above is **** NO GO ****
And this is without the quite frequent 15KT+ crosswind (+4 points) and even more common less than 2000 ft cloudbase (+2 points).
I have been there myself, tried to make guidelines for my flying club, but I think it is difficult to make a mechanical approach to risk assessment that makes sense in a wide variety of conditions.
One striking difference between the flying club I was a member of in the US (https://sancarlosflight.com/, biiig shoutout to them they are fantastic) and the flying club I was briefly a member of in Toulouse is the emulation. Back in the US I was inspired by others’ member trips and everyone would put a lot of energy in helping fellow pilots going to places they’ve already been to. Thankfully here we have EuroGA but most of the local flying club members are really missing out on the travelling aspects of GA.
This is a really good thread.
My view is that one should fly the same way regardless of who (if anyone) one is carrying. If you fly alone, and die, you will leave behind a huge mess for everyone else to deal with, and they will be dealing with it for years. And if you have no family (but enjoy life) then you still don’t want to die, do you?
I am very aware that flying is a risky hobby, and try to discuss it with lots of people, and read and understand loads of crash reports and see what can be taken away from each one. Not sure if this is a good or a bad thing, but I haven’t yet seen one where I thought “I could have done that”.
The one thing which could have got me was the Swiss charts with mixed feet/metres elevations, in 2004, and I remember this to this day. Justine was with me then, too. Like most VFR pilots (had no IR then) I did some IMC on the way but was using the Jepp charts where I was doing that, and by Switzerland we were VMC so are still here to write about it. I am sure many others are not.
Another close one was fuel servo icing, in 2014 and again in 2015. That was really subtle, and could have got somebody, and there would have been no evidence. Just another unexplained crash, especially if you made no radio calls. Lots of people still don’t believe it happens (read the thread) but you can do the same on a DA42 and I know somebody who did (both engines stopped) but AFAIK he never posted it.
VFR flying on long trips is more hazardous than IFR, though most of this is because of Europe’s screwed-up ATC and airspace, forcing VFR pilots to take lots of extra risks, often flying in IMC. The sooner you get an IR (and you will need oxygen too, and a reasonably good plane) the better, if you want to go places. Europe is just too hard in terms of airspace, and ATC so often working against you than for you, when VFR. Mountains are very doable VFR if you have a decent performance plane and can go straight over the top. Of course most would regard that as boring
If you can train somebody to sort of fly the plane and do the radio, that greatly reduces the risk of pilot incapacitation. Most pilot partners (pilots’ wives for the non PC ) are actually more worried about this than about anything else even if they don’t say it. They know things about you which you haven’t told your AME, and with the majority of “forum disappearances” being due to not flying anymore, and the majority of those being due to loss of medical, your partner knows a lot more about you than your AME 
Actually most lost medicals can be recovered but the usual cost is well into 4 digits, and most don’t bother.
It’s very true about not discussing accidents with one’s partner. Unless they are pilots too, it just scares them and they stop flying with you. No purpose whatever has been served. Your currency goes downhill which is exactly the wrong thing. But then a large chunk of interesting conversation potential, with the person you trust most and confide in, is lost, so few pilots actually practice this… and pay the price. Justine stopped long flights about 6 years ago; she will go up to about 2hrs and only in perfect wx. Luckily I have enough people (just enough) to fly with or meet up with.
Many pilots I have known were forced to stop flying when children arrived; I don’t know a solution for that. Usually the man says his wife forced him to stop but I think the pressure can even be subtle and eventually one doesn’t want to fight it. A few pilots have a flying partner and they fly with their kids, which is extremely lucky to have found such a partner.
A big factor is maintenance. If you own outright, you can control it, and tolerate no defects. Not many planes crash due to a mechanical breakdown but problems have a big corrosive effect on confidence (via downtime, too, which is huge in GA) which directly translates into flying / not flying, and thus currency, and thus safety.
The 2-yearly revalidations are a sore point. The FI/CRI has to sign you off provided he survives the flight
MMOPA FRAT
This idea is quite old and has come up here before. As some say on that Mooney URL, I don’t think it works well at the individual level. It probably works at the population level e.g. you can get a good idea of somebody’s life expectancy if you know their age, postcode, and education. Most people find that scary!
Snoopy wrote:
Do you fly with your family? With your young kids? Do you observe any special rules or treat it like any other flight? For example: would you fly in certain weather alone without issues but not if your kids/wife/relatives were aboard?
Yes to all.
I part-owned an airplane when I got married and we used it as our honeymoon transport. We have been flying as a family since.
My wife does not emotionally like flying, although rationally she appreciates the effort, thought and achievement that goes with it.
She does enjoy the flexibility in ability to go places, specially living on an island and the fewer different hassles compared to orange/blue tubes.
She dislikes IMC and turbulence, so I try to plan around that when flying with her. Funnily, she hates headwinds more than I do, and a slight tailwind will make her forget about turbulence…weird!
Of our three kids, the teenage one goes along with mummy’s mood, the little ones enjoy flying.
When the family outgrew our trusted 177RG, we had to give it up. It never occurred to me that we could go for a two-seater or a non-family airplane. It took us ages to find a reasonable alternative that would work for the family in our current steed: a P210.
For us it is important to avoid nasty experiences when flying as we want to preserve it as a useful family tool for travelling and creating good memories. I fear the one day we have a very bad experience, trust will be lost. This, almost as much as safety, is part of our risk model for decision making on GA trips.
The above dictated airplane type as it had to be a six-seater able to fly mostly VMC in a wide range of wx scenarios, and reasonably heavy wing loading for turbulence. It did not have to be an all-wx flyer but it also had to be wx-capable, fast and reasonably economical to allow 300-400 kg of us to actually fly places without breaking the bank. This did not leave many options.
For risk management, I keep on implementing tools to counter all of the main risks we can identify, knowing and accepting we cannot eliminate all of them. There are a lot of online resources, including EuroGA, to help you identify those tools (piloting , decision-making , onboard wx, maintenance tools…).
I always try to give the family the feeling that there is a plan B and C so there is no need to stress out. Most of the time they know in advance about those plans and the couple of times we had to implement them it was a no-brainer and nobody onboard stressed about it.
I worry mostly about mum and if she’s fine, automatically it will make the 13, 10 & 8yo kids be fine.
Of course it does not always go smoothly, but then we have some more family stuff to talk about!
I believe there are three types of accidents – as harsh as it may sound, those that are just stupid, those that could be avoided but nevertheless would challenge most, and those that you are just incredibly lucky to survive.
Fortunately, the last are also incredibly rare. I guess they include such like as structural failure, serious in flight fire, and pilot incapacity. There may be very little you can do to mitigate the outcome. This category should perhaps also include those things we do deliberately because we believe the risk very small, whilst realising should the worst happen, the outcome will involve far more luck, than skill. I would include many of those things we might do in a single, where, if the engine were to fail, the outcome is unpredictable, whatever your level of skill, as well as getting involved with weather in any aircraft which is at the edge of is ability to cope with the weather, although I think this category crosses over with the next.
In the first category, I would of course include almost all the accidents that occur. That may seem very superior, but that isnt the intention. Never the less the reality is that most pilots at some point get themselves into situations which are at the outer edge of their ability, all that changes, is that hopefully their envelope grows with experience. By definition, the more you fly, the more you stretch your experience (by flying with more experienced pilots), the more you reduce the risk. Inevitably the problem is to organise your flying so that you fly with other more experienced pilots, in circumstances where you expand your envelope. I think few of us are able to do this. Part of the reason commercial ops are so safe, is surely for this reason. In a year or two, a commercial pilot will have seen and experienced such a wide variety of events that we might hope to experience in many years of flying, as part and parcel of their daily grind. The accidents are stupid, in the sense that with adequate experience they would never have occurred in the first place, or even, if they do occur, are recoverable events. Until your bucket has sufficient experience I think the only solution is to be incredibly strict with yourself. Set boundaries, consider the worst possible outcome and assess whether this will palce you on the edge of that boundary. If it does, be very clear on your escape and execute your escape plan without hesitation. I think diversions are a very good example. If you meet the circumstances in your rigorous plan to divert, execute the diversion without hesitation, and definetely sooner than later. I think it is inevitably easier on so many counts to retrace your steps than continue, to get on the ground sooner than later, or head off in a different direction. I also think, dont be worried about asking for help. We have the adage that communication should be last on our list and I believe that is correct, but, as soon as you are on top of the aircraft, working out a plan with AT can be very reassuring, especially when you lack experience.
In the middle category, I would include all the very unusual events which you will hopefully be lucky enough never see in your flying career, that are surviveable, but which many would not survive. I think these include the like of serious systems failures, or weather events that are at the extreme of the aircraft or the pilot. As to the first, of these, there is no substitute for knowing your aircraft inside out. i wonder how many pilots really know every possible systems failure on the aircraft(s) they fly, the correct actions to take and the recognised drills? The classic example is inevitably in twins. We have all read the horror stories of engine failure, they are fortunately well rehearsed during a MEP pilot’s annual renewal, but even so, how many twin pilots are really so comfortable with what they should do in every circumstance that the failure doesnt result in distraction and consequence? For example, does your twin have dual hydraulic pumps, and if it does not and you need to lower the gear and flaps are you comfortable with how to operate the backup systems while flying the aircraft with passengers that are in a state of panic?
Finally, I think there is one other factor which may save you one day – and that is simply command authority. Each of us is very much in command, it is a huge responsibility, which I think can never be underestimated. It is a difficult concept I think, but you see in some the abiltiy and the discipline to stop, take that moment to reflect on events, make a clear command decision and execute that decision without letting events overtake them. Rarely I think, do events happen so quickly that there arent those moments to assess and reflect before reacting, and how often, having made a decision, do we perhpaps not carry it through even though we know it was the “right” thing to do?
I take solice in the thought that in everything we do we dance on the head of a pin, there is much we can do to avoid falling off the edge, but there we all go for the grace of who ever you may believe is your God or your guiding light, and for that we must be forever grateful.
Snoopy wrote:
Do you fly with your family? With your young kids? Do you observe any special rules or treat it like any other flight? For example: would you fly in certain weather alone without issues but not if your kids/wife/relatives were aboard?
Yes and yes. My wife has flown with me all my flying career (25+ years). Fortunately I was able to build experience and ratings and confidence before we had our children.
We fly together frequently, but only to go places conveniently, not for the flying. I do not think that I fly any different when I have family, other passengers or when I fly alone. But my weather decisions are a little different. I am more careful to avoid violent weather when I have passengers, both because I have to handle their reactions and because I want them to enjoy the flight in order to hopefully continue to fly together in the future. Even the prospect of having to divert is different when I have passengers to think about, especially from a practical point of view. I can sleep in a club house (or could, years ago) when alone, or hitch-hike into town, but that is complicated with family. And, even after 3000+ hrs, I am often more tense before a flight if I am going to have passengers. Once I line up on the runway, there is no difference though.
I have become more conservative and less adventure-seeking in my flying, but I think it is because of age, not family. Maybe both. The paradox is that the “adventures” in my flying as a young pilot may have been riskier, but I learned important things from that, and today I am grateful for the things I learned when “adventuring”.
My wife and kids are completely happy to fly with me (kids think its as normal as going in the car) and I think she appreciates my attitude to risk management. I won’t take them off the island until I can do so IFR at FL100+ (2.5 hours training to go!). I bought a raft, jackets, will have O2, have a very thorough mechanic, and am very conservative with wx. In fact because our kids are young and her job isn’t as flexible as mine and some of my friends, she gets mad that I take other people out more than her!
Peter wrote:
VFR flying on long trips is more hazardous than IFR, though most of this is because of Europe’s screwed-up ATC and airspace, forcing VFR pilots to take lots of extra risks, often flying in IMC. The sooner you get an IR (and you will need oxygen too, and a reasonably good plane) the better, if you want to go places. Europe is just too hard in terms of airspace, and ATC so often working against you than for you, when VFR.Well, even as a young/new pilot, I can’t confirm that on my VFR trips through Europe so far (haven’t visited the UK yet
). Yes, sometimes there is a lot of radio work to do, but it’s doable. Especially if you know the local habbits in advance. Thanks to @boscomantico and it’s German websites for flying in Italy, France and UK, it was very easy for me to prepare myself for my first French and Italian adventures. I also watch other European pilots on YouTube, to get a feeling for new countries and I’m sharing my experiences as well (as you already know ).Yes and yes. My wife and son are up for it and quite relaxed about it (more so than I am when when one or both (rare) are aboard), but I don’t let on. My son has gotten his medical and wants to learn to fly. My wife used to be frightened of flying in any plane, including Boeings, but is fine with under 2 hour flights in SEPs now.
The real issue for me in regards to family is the added weight. Consequently, I stay out of high terrain with them.
I waited until I had 200 TT before taking any non-pilot passengers. The reason I did this is because I wanted to get through as many newbie botches as I could without witnesses. It’s a bad idea to take family on long x-country flights when you lack experience. It will just be painfully obvious you’re a beginner and this will likely damage family confidence in you. Going on flights alone for 200 hours and always coming back is confidence enhancing.
My policy is never to talk about botches, accidents, etc with my wife. But she has figured out a lot about this on her own. Delays, cancelations, reroutings are never an issue with them.
My real fear is some sort of mechanical failure. Over my 2-plane ownership I’ve seen too much evidence of maintenance neglect (much invisible unless you really know what you’re looking for) to trust fully older planes. I have an open checkbook policy on maintenance, but even that doesn’t always solve the problem. The engineer servicing the plane is almost as important as the pilot.
