The US does not revolve around Federal politics, it is a side show. I think you’re projecting a European view where its not really applicable. Regardless of the outcome of a US election afterward people’s attention quickly shifts to their business and their money, what is now the way to protect it or get more, direct political interest rapidly becomes second priority on the radar.
I don’t know why all of you are so pessimistic. Obviously the US elections will be contentious but I am quite optimistic that Biden will win and restore the rule of law in the US. Except for a few extremists, the majority of Trump’s remaining supporters will grudgingly accept the result. The US is certainly past its peak as a superpower, but I doubt it will fall apart this quickly.
In Europe, Brexit and Covid will accelerate the “ever closer union” of the EU, which will remain the largest democratic, peaceful, advanced economy of the planet. The German elections next year will with 99% likelihood produce an even more pro-EU government than the last, which will (grudgingly) support more intra-EU transfers of money, which is just what we need to stabilise the EU and the Eurozone in particular.
With the EU’s focus on sustainability, through green technologies, we have a good chance of becoming a world market leader in this key economic sector. Fossil fuels are on their way out, and whoever can offer the best green technologies will invariably win the economy of the 21st century.
Medewok, you are more senior than I am, but your post looks like an article from the Guardian/Le Monde.
I doubt Biden will be elected, and I doubt even more Europeans will accept more money and sovereignty transfers to Brussels or wherever.
I think EU will end, because they wanted to do in 40 years what will take 1000 if ever : blending all european cultures into one.
I know nothing about today’s poland. Could you develop tmo ?
@Medewok how I envy your ability to see the EU with such rose coloured glasses. I have to say I honestly believe your views are very much in the minority with the general populations of the EU. Of course those who have seen the largess distributed by the EU will take a while to come to their senses. The EU will tax business out of existence.
I think one needs to see the present with a historical perspective.
I just about remember the JFK shooting, and remember Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush Sr, Clinton, Bush J, Obama, and now we have Trump. And no I didn’t have to google for the names.
In 1st World politics, issues on which there is consensus were mostly implemented decades or centuries ago, so domestic policy is intractable i.e. almost nobody can change anything of substance. The current leader is not very relevant, and is anyway constrained by the rest of the governing machine.
Foreign policy is the only area where anything can be achieved, and this is largely because the leader’s hands are less tied; most actions are “executive authority”. So leaders love this stuff.
Each country’s citizens judge their leader on their domestic policy (i.e. he/she almost always gets a poisoned chalice) and are mostly clueless on the foreign policy.
The rest of the world judges that leader on his/her foreign policy, and are mostly clueless on that country’s domestic policy.
The most famous one in the above list achieved very little on either front (Bay of Pigs was very badly done whichever side you are on) and is an icon because he died young, so was never judged by history, and his personal scandals came out much later.
And even a donkey can make money in a bull market (Truman and Eisenhower benefited from this, in the post-WW2 US industrial boom, and I am not saying they were bad; actually Truman was a really upright guy and perhaps the only one without skeletons in his cupboard emerging later).
We will have to see what happens in the US election but it is unlikely to change anything of substance domestically. It never does. Even the most useless president (Carter perhaps?) merely puts the whole show into a holding pattern for 4 years or so.
CV19 – the biggest “job” since WW2 – will continue to drive a general anti China movement and I think that’s a good thing because the millions of uneducated people in the US and Europe need some work. It won’t go very far because China is still 1/4 to 1/2 the cost of the 1st World on primitive labour-intensive operations… but ditching the bug-ridden Huawei junk from key areas is a good thing; they should use the slightly less bug-ridden stuff from Ericsson and Nokia and Cisco because those makers will never become a military enemy.
What will happen in Europe, nobody can tell. There is certainly no overall appetite for further integration. And if post-brexit UK does “ok, or better” the appetite for further integration will be absolutely zero.
Peter wrote:
In 1st World politics, issues on which there is consensus were mostly implemented decades or centuries ago, so domestic policy is intractable i.e. almost nobody can change anything of substance. The current leader is not very relevant, and is anyway constrained by the rest of the governing machine.
Well put, and why US state level politics is more important to me in the upcoming US elections. Assuming the existing House and Senate situation is maintained, the Federal Government is castrated by design and can do little domestically regardless of who happens to get the executive spot. That’s all I hope for and will be fine with me – the only thing I’d like the Feds to do in my life is less, sticking to basics, and spending less money they don’t have and won’t get.
Conversely, US state governors and ballot initiatives do have significant power and/or impact on our lives inside a given US state and the states have vastly varying degrees of financial health and responsibility, with no sharing of budgets. Among other things this has the effect of pushing people to move between states and thereby has a significant impact on their lives.
Outside of the US borders, regardless of the Feds having a ‘freer hand’ in international theatre, whatever any Federal Government does is almost irrelevant to my life – outside of declarations of war its international business, not international government, that matters to my life and the two have almost no interaction.
Jujupilote wrote:
Do you make the same observation ?
Somewhat, but not nearly so gloomy.
I remember seeing a German TV series called “Heimat” in the 80s. It took place during WWII. One character there was a pilot in the Luftwaffe, flying Me-109? don’t remember. All he ever dreamed about was flying. When the war ended, his brief flying career was over obviously. But in the last scenes from the 50s he came flying in a helicopter while shouting: Ich fliege, Ich fliege 
Never give up your dream, even if the changing reality puts stuff upside down for a while.
I mean things are changing. There are ups and downs. Old opportunities dies, but don’t forget that new opportunities also are created. You only have to open your eyes. I think that is one key difference in Norway vs “Europe”. We are deep down nothing but a little family of opportunists, always have been, ever since the first men and women sat their feet on this rock when the ice melted. In pre-industrial ages it was a matter of necessity, the only thing that “grows” here in abundance is fish, and fishing is the archetypal form of opportunism in these cold and dangerous waters. Today it is also a matter of necessity, but mostly due to the fact we are only 5 million, living at the edge of civilization.
I think MedEwok has a point. We have to look at the opportunities. We have to look at what we can do instead of crying over the things we cannot longer do. I mean, electric cars are fun to drive. Sailing boats built on 1000 year old technology is as fun today as it was 1000 years ago. Lots of cool (GA type) planes to fly, and RVs also Even if they have electric engines, flying only 1 hour, it’s still fun.
The US? What irritates me is how much the media is in love with the US election and US politics. Why?
Circumstances in family and life has caused me to built 2 shops where I can build my planes. The last one costed me about € 70k since it involved extending my house. Within the next year my wife and I will move to another house, mostly caused by the health of my wife. This causes me to build myself yet another shop, the third It will be larger and cheaper this time, and hopefully the next owner sees the value in my old shop somehow, and is willing to pay for it. Building RV-12s and similar, selling them (as 600kg microlights), or maybe some electric homebuilts? A nice self paying hobby when gradually retiring, and it gives me the opportunity to fly a little as well.
There was always one thing I admired about Americans in the past is that no matter who they voted for they were always, in the main, passionately supportive of the sitting president.
I’m not quite sure when that changed but IMO it has changed.
That isn’t my recollection of the numbers. Like in Europe, it is rare for anybody to get a big majority – say 75% – as a personal approval vote.
Trump got in largely because of poor opposition; people hated Hilary even more. He is a comic but one also has to remember that it is a requirement in European media (which is PC and largely left-leaning) to portray him in a specific way, so if say he did a 60min speech in which he spent 5 mins offending all the minorities and 55 mins saying things which Americans wanted to hear, European media carried the 5 mins.
The huge difference between US and Europe is that if you asked 100 random people which country they belong to, in the US 99 would say “US”, while in Europe maybe a 1% would say “Europe”. The US is openly patriotic, while Europe equates patriotism with nationalism, and… let’s not go there since that stuff is just 1mm below the surface over here
