Ibra I agree with you. What I was pointing out is that the idea that the virus was present in the Italian population in October doesn’t make sense.
Hi guys,
Funny how my first post on this forum has nothing to do with aviation.
But I’ve been keeping track of the exponential growth rate of reported fatalities for a few countries and regions.
The way to read this is as follows:
You can see my calculations here: https://github.com/aleon1138/covid-19/blob/master/covid19.ipynb
Cheers!
-aml
Arnaldo wrote:
In South America and the USA, the daily rate is still increasing.
In the USA specifically, the number of new cases since yesterday is 8,877. For the previous day it was 9,393. New York City has emerged as the US problem area, although the rate of infection is now dropping in New York State too (5085 versus 5418). Only four people have died of Corona Virus in California (population 40 million) within the last day. Data
512 people in total have died of Corona Virus in the USA so far, and this number will doubtless increase. The eventual US fatality total for H1N1 was around 12,000 (of roughly 300,000 worldwide) and I’ll remain interested to see if Corona Virus after a year is smaller or larger in scale. More Data The economic impact will be much greater today due to increased action by governments to shut down the world economy and this will have a huge impact on people’s well being, I think for several years.
PS I corrected some of the numbers above based on new data.
Big restrictions in the UK from tonight – here.
They are not closing businesses generally.
These measures are the obvious direct result of people behaving like complete plonkers over the weekend – big crowds and parties all over the place.
Interesting post Arnaldo and welcome 
It appears that this data shows that only drastic curbs on movement are effective in bending the trend downwards, and these have to be introduced at some point.
If H1N1 killed 12k in the US, I find it amazing that so little was heard of it. What was the difference? Did it happen over a long time?
Peter wrote:
They are not closing businesses generally.
Are you sure?
I think it is key workers in key industries that are excluded, isnt it, everyone else is included?
I agree there are quite a few key workers – , teachers (to look after the children of key workers), as you would expect, medics across the board, those involved in the distribution of food etc., in those sectors, bankers, solicitors, accountants, payroll clerks etc., would all seem included from the financial sector.
I am surprised air traffic is still being allowed. I fail to see how people can come from almost any part of the world, and, within a few hours, be in any part of the country, but perhaps, with the current lock down, the argument is once they reach their home, they will not be in contact with other people? I still worry about the large numbers moving through our airports and the unavoidable close proximity in their movements never mind time spent on the aircraft.
I don’t see “key workers” listed.
Peter wrote:
If H1N1 killed 12k in the US, I find it amazing that so little was heard of it. What was the difference? Did it happen over a long time?
Copying from the link above:
“The CDC estimated that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million H1N1 cases, with 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S. alone. They also estimate that worldwide, 151,700 to 575,400 people died from (H1N1)pdm09 during the first year. Unusually, about 80% of the deaths were in people younger than 65 years of age”
OK; that’s over a year. This one is multiplying much faster; that’s the problem.
Stuff doesn’t really make the news if it remains below the “event horizon”…
Peter
Not a bad summary as a place to start;
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/23/key-workers-list-uk-coronavirus/
and drill down from there for the detail.
Not surprisingly there is some degree of interpretation, and, I think in theory you would also have to justify not being able to carry out the tasks from home. However, in this age of quite sophisticated computer systems and security many will find themselves unable to access these services remotely so you wouldnt be able to carry out the work from home to all practical consequence.
I dont think to be fair the statement was absolutely clear as it says you can go to work but only where this is absolutely necessary – and it is being said it is only necessary if you are one of the defined “key workers”.
In other words I think if you are an estate agent, or manufacture a non essential product, or distribute consumer electrical goods, you should close your business.
No mention of how far away the food shop is. My usual one is 2 miles, mainly clifftop and beach.
