Mooney_Driver wrote:
Had we cut off travel to China the moment the first indications of a severe problem had appeared, quite possibly we could have contained it there.
Possibly as everything but actually extremely unlikely!
By now we know that there have been cases in Italy as early as 4 months before they have been first reports from the Chinese outbreak. So as long as we do not buy in the big conspiracy theory that the Chinese government knew of it already in Spring/Summer 2019,In ca. 30 Minuten many months before it made the news in late 2019, the virus definitely already has been in Europe before the first indications from China.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
The UK variant had a classic distribution scheme: It came to Europe via Ski tourism and common trade routes. Had the border been shut for non essential travel, this would not have happened to the extent it did.
That is actually quite a bold statement – German scientist on balance do more believe that the virus doesn’t know why people are traveling (and therefore doesn’t care). It doesn’t even care if travel is national or international. It’s just that if people meet and do not apply due care it can jump from human to human…
LeSving wrote:
The problem is that the risk is much larger than 1% after a certain age, and then just continue to increase with age. IMO the vaccines will make the risk negligible after a while, and for a while. But, when looking at how easy entire populations are lead by fear, and how gladly entire populations fall back to symbols (thinking about masks), I cannot see this is over anytime soon.
That’s true that the risk grows with the age. But so does the risk of dying from other reasons as well. And now let’s imagine a person of 70+ age who still lives quite an active life and have a high chance to die within the next 5-10 years. His chances to die from COVID in case he’s reasonably cautious are probably not higher than 10% (I believe they are much less). Is it worth for him to be restricted from living his active life (travelling, hobbies, meeting friends etc) for 2-3 years for reducing this risk? I’m not sure. And I’m for the right of everybody to decide for themself instead of the governments to decide for us.
Cobalt wrote:
Exactly when should they have owned up to the virus, compared to when they actually did? And how does that delay compare to the delay in taking action after they “owned up”?
They should have reported the virus immediately they were aware there was the possibility of transmission person to person. The Chinese, as much as any nation, knew full well the risks posed by this type of virus. Lest we dont forget it occurred in the City responsible for research into this type of virus – possibly almost no one knew as well as them the risks it posed.
The reasons for their failed will need to be examined. I am sure they were politically and economically motivated. Sadly, I cant think of a good scientific reason for their failure.
I am not sure the question you are asking in the second part. Do you mean in terms of the world’s resposne or the response of the Chinese?
I suspect you mean the world’s response, to which I would say this is irrelevant. The view is the world would not have responded any differently, and I concurr with this view. However, there is an old sayings two wrongs dont make a right. How the world respnded does not excuse the Chinese taking the action they should at the first opportunity, and in this repsect they are culpable and failed miserably.
Malibuflyer wrote:
By now we know that there have been cases in Italy as early as 4 months before they have been first reports from the Chinese outbreak. So as long as we do not buy in the big conspiracy theory that the Chinese government knew of it already in Spring/Summer 2019,In ca. 30 Minuten many months before it made the news in late 2019, the virus definitely already has been in Europe before the first indications from China.
i am afriad this is simply wrong and all part of the general misinformation.
We dont know this. There is some evidence it might, and equally sceintists who dispute the findings. There is no concensus and I am not aware any of the research has been peer reviewed.
It is equally possibly the Chinese knew Covid was circulating a lot earlier in Wuhan.
The only right answer at the moment, is we dont know. We dont know when anyone became aware of the first case, and we dont know where and how the virus first jumped from an animal to a human. Hopefully we will gradually build a better picture. However, the fact that the WHO are concentrating on Wuhan would suggest they feel it started there, or at least in China. it is equally possible the Chinese knew they had a problem much much earlier than December and could have broguht the world’s attention to the problem much much earlier as well – but note I have carefully chosen to use the world “possible”.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
They should have reported the virus immediately they were aware there was the possibility of transmission person to person.
The Italian’s “owned up to it” in March. The rest of the west did nothing.
The UK variant was first detected in September. The UK “owned up to it” in December. Apart from a dramatic blockade of truck drivers that lasted a few days, there has been little effort to contain it.
Why do you think our reaction to the Chinese “owning up to it” earlier would have been any better?
But so does the risk of dying from other reasons as well. And now let’s imagine a person of 70+ age who still lives quite an active life and have a high chance to die within the next 5-10 years.
The numbers support a different slant on this argument.
The actuarial life expectancy in N Europe (lots of tables online; already posted here) is about 8 years at age 80. At 70 it is about 14 years.
But these are averages, so somebody who is 70 and has looked after their health will not only have a longer life ahead but their immediate life will be of a much higher quality. Most of those people value their immediate life highly and are keen to enjoy it, see the world, go skiing, etc.
Put that against the risk of dying from CV19 at age 70, and it doesn’t look so good.
Admittedly if you are not obese (etc) then your chances of dying of CV19 are far below average, but this thing is random to a degree, and do you feel lucky? There is a genetic test you could have which tells you if you are likely to get a severe disease but it is not cheap and not viable for public policy (also it would create a class of partly-uninsurable people, if done openly).
I am 60+ and have decided to do all possible to avoid catching it, and we both can’t wait to get vaccinated.
I think travel is a problem partly because it can spread new strains (the SA version clearly came from SA, and even now people are coming in through Heathrow without any checks) and partly because many people go totally crazy with partying when on holiday. The plane and airport related stuff also spread it.
dublinpilot wrote:
Fuji_Abound wrote: They should have reported the virus immediately they were aware there was the possibility of transmission person to person.The Italian’s “owned up to it” in March. The rest of the west did nothing.
The UK variant was first detected in September. The UK “owned up to it” in December. Apart from a dramatic blockade of truck drivers that lasted a few days, there has been little effort to contain it.
Why do you think our reaction to the Chinese “owning up to it” earlier would have been any better?
I dont think it would have been any better, and I specifically said it probably would not. To be fair to me you need to quote my whole post.
I doubt we would have responded any better or any differently. This isnt the point. As I said in my post two wrongs dont make a right. Moreover there is unfortunately the political dimension and the scientific dimension. Personally, I think if the scientific community has been alerted earlier, whatever the politicians did or didnt do, some of the scientists would have been all over this a lot earlier. PD for example takes these threats very seriously and regardless of the politicians are working on these things as soon as they become known. I know this as a fact. It is one of the things we do very well. That head start is vital, in terms of the subsequent political response.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
The reasons for their failed will need to be examined
Why? Does it help in any way to fight the pandemic know? This is exactly the “we need to blame the Chinese” mindset that absolutely doesn’t help right now.
Despite blaming the Chinese for something we do not know about it, let’s rather work on things we can influence in our countries.
Let’s make our governments, e.g. issue an unconditional “full disclosure” policy for every incident that happens in a biologic research institute (even military ones in those countries where these exist). Every incidence needs to be publicly reported with full information within 24h even if the (military) authorities do not have a full assessment wether it is actually posing a risk to public yet. Same btw. should hold true for nuclear and chemical incidents.
As far as I know none of our great nations has that and to the contrary many of such incidents are still classified (basically making it a crime to publish even if an outsider by chance get a knowledge of them).
Malibuflyer wrote:
Fuji_Abound wrote: The reasons for their failed will need to be examinedWhy? Does it help in any way to fight the pandemic know? This is exactly the “we need to blame the Chinese” mindset that absolutely doesn’t help right now.
Despite blaming the Chinese for something we do not know about it, let’s rather work on things we can influence in our countries.
Let’s make our governments, e.g. issue an unconditional “full disclosure” policy for every incident that happens in a biologic research institute (even military ones in those countries where these exist). Every incidence needs to be publicly reported with full information within 24h even if the (military) authorities do not have a full assessment wether it is actually posing a risk to public yet. Same btw. should hold true for nuclear and chemical incidents.As far as I know none of our great nations has that and to the contrary many of such incidents are still classified (basically making it a crime to publish even if an outsider by chance get a knowledge of them).
Why? For the reasons I outlined above. We mustnt firstly confuse the political response with the scientific response. I have no doubt we would have been further forward scientifically if the disclosure had come earlier. Furthermore the why is to prejudge how others react. The analogy – dont tell the pilot there is the first signs of an oil leak because he will still fly the aircraft. Many probably will, but this isnt your call!
It isnt a question of blaming the Chinese – this is all part of the story line they, the press and others like to present. It is a question of examining how matters could have been handled differently and recognising why it is vital the world has the earliest opportunity to recognise and react to these events when they occur.
Its tough the press like to use the term “blame”. We are all adults and this isnt the play ground. We rise above this nonesense. I dont blame the Chinese but I damn well want to ensure when this happens the next time the first inkling of a virus with this potential is brought to the world’s attention at the first suspicion.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
I am not aware any of the research has been peer reviewed.
Happy to make you aware: Tumori journal is fully peer reviewed.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0300891620974755
