Denmark will issue vaccination “passports” for covid (in particular). This should enable people to travel. Don’t really see the point though, as I already have a vaccination card used only for travel (to places where certain vaccines are demanded).
There is a need for a secure CV19 certificate, because there will be a huge market for fake ones.
It will be vastly bigger than the current market for fake passports and fake IELTS certificates, which are of interest only to a subset of the “immigration” business. The market for fake CV19 vacc certs will be basically all the anti vaxxers (perhaps 20% of the population?) multiplied by what % of them want to travel on cheap airlines (probably close to 90%).
It will be a billion euro market just in Europe.
There was never a market for fake vacc certificates for the normal stuff because most people travel only to the “obvious” places which don’t need it.
How they will do it without a coordinated database, I have no idea. Fake passports were basically undetectable before online checking arrived.
The UK is delaying the 2nd dose (because the 1st dose gives you most of the immunity, for a while at least) and that also gives them time to work out what to do about the certs. I know that currently those who get vaccinated just get a card which shows the name and date of the first dose, and it has a place for the date of the second dose. There is no security on it and anybody could make one up. But the NHS is keeping track of who got it, on their computer, so in theory they could generate certificates from that data.
Around 10:25 in this video
average ICU age in London hospitals is 60.
References this
90% of the covid patients were working before being admitted, so not old people. No BMI data however; still a big factor.
Peter wrote:
But the NHS is keeping track of who got it, on their computer, so in theory they could generate certificates from that data.
That’s another thing. I got all may vaccines (along with my medical record) available at all times on a secure server, as do everyone else in Norway. Such a “certificate” will in any circumstance simply be a fancy “analog/digital” print out from that, which I already have access to, and which I already have (an analogue version) 
It will be interesting to see how this evolves. Some sort of standardized international digital solution will for sure be needed for international travel.
I dont see secure vaccine cards being issued, at any rate in the UK.
Yes, there will be some sort of card – but secure – no.
My guess is that if we really get round to vaccinating the numbers spoken of by the Autumn, those who havent had the vaccine or chose not to, will be left to their own devices. By this I mean the expectation will be the NHS will be able to cope with the number infected once the majority have been vaccinated and who end up with severe symptoms, and the airlines will accept a percentage of fake cards.
Given the levels of corruption that exists in most of the world and parts of Europe any certification will rapidly be worthless !
I honestly don’t think that vaccination certificates (or proof required to do travel or do some activity) are going to become a thing. It might for a short while, before everyone gets their head around the endgame.
The point of a population-wide vaccination campaign against an infectious disease is to largely eliminate it from circulation. It’s not to arrive at a situation where it circulates freely and constantly but doesn’t make people ill because they’ve been vaccinated. And if that were the case – that it circulated constantly among the vaccinated but without significant illness – then the unvaccinated would only be taking risks with their own health and governments could quite easily wash their hands of that.
In any case I don’t believe a world in which you have to prove your bullet-proof vest at every turn is either sustainable or desireable.
LeSving wrote:
Some sort of standardized international digital solution will for sure be needed for international travel.
As much as I would love this as much I doubt that this will come anytime soon!
Let’s face it: It’s 2021 and we are still carrying around these nifty booklets called “passports” (many of us multiple from the same country) and these booklets have empty pages of paper so that immigration officers can rubber stamp them! How medival! Even w/o Covid there would be huge need for digitizing international travel documents.
With respect to timing I would expect that most “civilized” countries would avoid discriminating between vaccinated and non vaccinated people until at least everybody who wants to got the opportunity to get the shot – there’s already rumors on Covid shots you can buy in Italy for 1k and no politician can afford the social questions or even riots in front of pharmacies in case the vaccination gets real monetary implications for individuals (i.e. the license to do their business…)
Passport checking does appear to be digital (online) around Europe, but you still need something “attached to the person”.
It could be a retina scan, an implanted smartcard chip, etc.
In the mean time resistance globally against the continued lockdown measures is rising. In the US a Request for Expedited Federal Investigation Into Scientific Fraud in Public Health Policies has been filed with the FBI (with copies to all relevant European (incl UK for clarity) state police services) on January 10th. I’ve read the full document (40 pages) and it is pretty well written, I’m not sure what to think, it’s pretty anti-China so probably a little biased though it does clearly outlined where all the failed lockdown policies originated. In some EU countries (BE and FR I know of for sure) resistance is starting to get organised by business owners against the prolonged measures. In France, where restaurants remain closed indefinitely, there is a growing number of business owners now stating they will open again on Feb 1st with our without the government’s approval with rising support on various social platforms.
Malibuflyer wrote:
With respect to timing I would expect that most “civilized” countries would avoid discriminating between vaccinated and non vaccinated people until at least everybody who wants to got the opportunity to get the shot
At least in Germany, most legal experts agree that this is not possible. If restrictions on personal life are placed upon people on the grounds of risk of infection, then these restrictions become impossible to legally uphold once the person is no longer infectious. In theory, that should also apply to those who are naturally immune after an infection.
