alioth wrote:
Actually there have been many studies that shows the virus doesn’t spread easily outdoors.
Not sure which “many Studies” you are referring to. I’m actually only aware of a few, none of which is already peer reviewed and non of these supports your claim!
If you talk about 18 times, you probably refer to the Nishiura et al preprint. But that doesn’t support your claim! They didn’t look for “spread” at all but for secondary transmissions. Easily put: They looked at people that were infected and with which likelihood they pass it on and in which setting.
Their finding is, that if you are infected it is 18 times more likely that you pass it on indoors than that you do so outdoors.
These results are fully plausible but don’t say anything about the risk or non risk of spreading it outside: It’s obvious, that in closed environments the risk of getting in close physical contact is higher. This risk, however, is also high at outdoor events like concerts, etc.
This is btw. consistent with other findings that identified several confirmed outdoor transmissions at building sites where workers had to work closely together and therefore could not maintain distance.
Everything the current research shows is consistent with the assumption that distancing makes the difference independent from being outdoors or indoors. It’s just easier in many settings to keep distance outdoors.
alioth wrote:
the notorious “packed beach” events haven’t coincided with noticeable spikes of infection
But did you actually look carefully at those shots of “packed beaches”…? A telephoto lens compresses a picture,and from a distance to get a whole beach in shot it will look really bad… and at the end of the day, do groups of people (ie a family) really sit on a beach within a meter of each other? 2m perhaps…and that is socially distanced anyway, remember… No, that was all about media outrage and making a story.
From “Flight Radar news”. How Widerøe became the largest largest airline in Europe 
As I posted above, 0.03% (300ppm) of the UK is estimated to be infected now. Obviously this varies a lot around the country.
What I wanna know is: what are the chances of 1 person in 150 on a plane being infected.
The upper bounds if 0.03% are currently infected and 150 people are on the plane is a 4.4% chance that at least 1 person on the plane is infected (in reality, it will be lower than this upper bound, because some of the 0.03% will be too sick to travel, and those who are not too sick to travel, many of them will know not to travel because they have it).
0.03% (3 in 10,000) is 0.0003.
The probability of a randomly picked individual not having COVID is 1-0.0003 = 0.9997
The probability of all 150 people not having COVID is 0.9997^150 = 95.6%, so the probability of at least one person having COVID is 4.4%.
The same as Alioth’s figure.
Malibuflyer wrote:
Unfortunately it’s basically an entire country that doesn’t get it…
Not really. The US is a much less homogeneous country than most Europeans realize. Here in CA everything was locked down early and by and large people adhered to the various measures. And yet…. in the last couple of weeks cases the caseload is soaring.
Of course you cannot shut a US state down the way you can a European country so that lockdown was always somewhat porous but it worked. Until it didn’t.
Infection looks to me to be travelling in a wave, moving west. First Europe grew the disease continent wide from localized areas in Italy, then it traveled to infect the US east coast, now it is slowly traveling westward 4,000 km across the US, hitting densely populated centers harder as one would expect. However as it travels, the numbers behind the wave drop dramatically. Cases in New York, New Jersey etc have now plummeted to less than 10% what they were, while cases in the west are way up – but the west in general has the advantage of lower population density, so not that many cases per square mile unless you live in a major city.
The daily fatality rate for the US as a whole is currently at 28% of the US peak, based on a 7 day moving average, 35% of peak with no averaging. US ranking in terms of fatalities per 1 M population is holding at number 9 worldwide, where it has been for quite a while. That means somebody like me has never met anybody who has caught Coronavirus.
There is something going on with the numbers of cases now being reported in the US as it has climbed over months in some areas and that is still not being much reflected in fatalities. Could be better treatment in the geographic areas now affected, but I’m guessing its primarily a data collection issue.
Treatment has certainly improved since the outset. The USA also has the advantage of mobile staff, so I gather doctors and nurses are following the outbreak, which is harder in Europe due to linguistic issues.
I believe the genetic studies show that the West coast wave came directly from China and the East coast wave came via Europe.
Ahh, new map on recreational travel (without having to be in quarantine when getting back)
