Our national public health organisation, the Robert Koch Institute, just released updated numbers on the pandemic in Germany.
The R number had now fallen to 0.7, more people are recovering than being newly infected. 350.000 tests per week are carried out, although capacity allows for up to 730.000 /week. 1.7 million of Germans have been tested so far, 9% of them positive. The death rate is rising though, now standing at 2.9% of confirmed cases. Domestic production of PPE is being geared up to 10 million FFP2 masks/week and 40 million standard surgical masks.
Overall, it looks like we are on track to beat this pandemic, although they (rightfully) said that only once a vaccine is available or heard immunity achieved (60 to 70% of the population having antibodies) can all restrictions be fully lifted.
Peter wrote [ Re Apacor not being able to sell test]
This seems to be a “power” issue – PHE wants to keep the tests for their three mega labs. But these aren’t ready yet. Hard to believe but quite possible.
Apacor are talking about tests they would import from Korea and which are manufactured there, all I see is an intermediary who is whining that they don’t get a slice of the cake.
That does not let PHO off the hook, they are clearly not covering themselves in glory. They either fail to act, or are failing to explain why they act a particular way; probably a combination of the two.
MedEwok wrote:
350.000 tests per week are carried out, although capacity allows for up to 730.000 /week. 1.7 million of Germans have been tested so far, 9% of them positive.
That is EXTREMELY good new, much better than anything we have heard so far.
Here is why – if I interpret this correctly.
The above would put the rate of deaths per infection around 0.15%; at the lower bound of the plausible range of 0.1-1%
[of course, it would also mean around 60,000 more deaths before herd immunity is reached.. not sure I calculated that correctly, but with R0 of 2.5 you need around 2/3 of the population immune for Re to reach 1]
MedEwok wrote:
350.000 tests per week are carried out, although capacity allows for up to 730.000 /week
I think it is worth highlighting the different ‘tests’
Do I understand correctly that the mass testing is the antibody test, and the in-hospital testing is the virus RNA test?
Presumably these 750k are antibody tests?
LeSving wrote:
This shows that the differences in counting technique has very little effect, negligible, except media created effects
Obviously it makes a difference if you count all deaths or only deaths in hospitals!
MedEwok wrote:
Rwy20 wrote:
Ironic how we’re promoting this as the best strategy to combat this respiratory disease though, completely ignoring the long-term health effects.
Are we? Our local government has explicitly allowed and promoted walking/jogging outside, as long as you maintain adequate distance to others doing so. Many people are outdoors in this weather, with uninterrupted CAVOK for weeks now…
It is much the same here in the UK. We are very definitely allowed out to exercise, but much of the ‘do gooder’ stuff doing the rounds on social media talks about it in terms of sitting on the sofa, e.g. “Your grandparents were sent to war, you’re just being sent to the sofa to watch Netflix, you can do this!”
However, lots of people (and organisations) are making up new rules as they go along and spreading them. It has been widely promulgated that one cannot drive to a place to exercise, but of course this is allowed because it is not specifically banned. It is also widely said that you are only allowed one hour of exercise per day, and again that is simply not true. Some landowners are attempting to close footpaths and other public rights of way, something that they generally have no authority to do. A number of rural areas are adopting incredibly selfish ’don’t stay at your house here if you also have a house in London’ -type attitudes, which is basically saying that we’re ok with our nice low population density and you should go back to the city to get infected.
The most common misconception, spreading like wildfire in the UK, is that you cannot go to work unless you are a ‘key’ or ‘essential’ worker. That is an outright lie. The rules simply state that you must work at home if you can.
What matters is what the emergency legislation says. Not what some cabinet minister says on TV after getting a bad briefing, not what some do-gooder would like you to do, nor what a police officer thinks.
MedEwok wrote:
Are we? Our local government has explicitly allowed and promoted walking/jogging outside, as long as you maintain adequate distance to others doing so. Many people are outdoors in this weather, with uninterrupted CAVOK for weeks now…
I think lot of people are confusing the virus risk with tornados risk either because they are too conservative or too selfish (the “stay at home save lives” gang VS the “I am not afraid of death” gang), unlike tropical tornados 1/ there is zero risk going out if you respect social distancing or go out alone and 2/ we don’t care about your own risk aversion if you will be infecting others
Airborne_Again wrote:
Obviously it makes a difference if you count all deaths or only deaths in hospitals!
Yes, but this is all media nonsense. Of course people are counted everywhere, but when people die outside hospitals, it will take some time before media get the numbers, and I would guess also the authorities.
Another thing. Hokkaido was one of the first places getting this virus. February 28 they started with measures, closing schools, people at home etc. The spread was reduced to 1-2 new cases per day. On Mars 19, they opened up again, only to see a new wave of infection 26 days later. They now are in “full lockdown again”. It shows, when we get control of the situation, it is far from over.
When control is achieved, it is important with tracing and testing, if we are to have a somewhat normal life before a cure (whatever that cure will be).
Cobalt wrote:
Do I understand correctly that the mass testing is the antibody test, and the in-hospital testing is the virus RNA test?Presumably these 750k are antibody tests?
I’m sorry, I should have formulated more clearly
MedEwok wrote:
The test capacity refers to the PCR (Virus RNA test). So 1.7 million people had this test at some point, of which 9% tested positive
1.7 million people tested, or 1.7 million tests carried out? Because I presume many of those who are being tested, will get tested more than once.
And those were probably tests of people who were symptomatic.
