Airborne_Again wrote:
But what if you also have terminal cancer and die of, as MedEwok says, organ dysfunction?
I asked the same questions a month? ago in this thread. I don’t think there are clear answers. In the end, only statistics count. We have to look at the statistics and see the increase in death rate, which already is more than obvious, even when subtracting the number who would ordinary die form traffic accidents, influenza and all other causes which are close to zero today.
As somebody who has filled out several dozen death certificates over their professional career, the last one on monday, actually, I would say if you contract Covid-19 and then die from some other organ dysfunction during your subsequent hospital stay, the cause of death would most certainly be “Covid-19”, at least if following our local laws and regulations of how to fill out a death certificate.
I will give you a non-Covid example for comparison: Say somebody runs you over with their car, breaking both of your legs, and you are then hospitalized, your legs are successfully operated and you are send to rehabilitation. While there, due to being still being somewhat immobilized, you develop a deep vein thrombosis, a subsequent embolism of the lung arteries and die. Your immediate cause of death would be “lung artery embolism”, but your underlying cause of death would be the car accident and the person who ran you over would not only be liable but also potentially guilty of manslaughter.
Of course the example is hard to transfer to SARS2-CoV infection, but demonstrates the difference between “immediate” cause of death and “underlying cause of death”. German statistics have always included the underlying cause of death.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
The only thing I can think of is that people have by now realized that this is a very dangerous illness and will practice social distancing, staying at home and reducing their exposure as much as possible even without strict measures.
In many ways it is not nearly as bad as it seems. Young people don’t infect each other and don’t get sick in remotely equal fashion as old people. From Finland, Iceland and Sweden (none of which have closed schools or kindergarten) shows no danger whatsoever with open schools. Finland and Island have very few deaths, less than Norway and Denmark, Sweden not so much, but it is safe to say that having open schools and kindergarten has nothing to do with the death rate. Denmark and Norway have had the schools and kindergarten closed, but are now opening them again. It is simply not at schools and kindergarten this virus is spread, even though all “intuition” say that would be the case.
It’s us 50+ that both spread it and die from it 
Bad for us, but very positive for human kind in the long run
Thank you all for your response to my question. I now feel much better educated about this virus than I have since the thing began. It is strange that it takes a pilot forum to give more clarity, and yes I have been studiously following briefings on TV, BBC Sky, Al Jazeerah, France 24 (in no particular order) and reading online.
I now need to look at what stage of the lockdown these 1400 deaths would correlate with. If the lockdown was in full force here, that poses other questions.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
It seems odd that the cases are growing exponentially as the maths. would see, to predict. Is there some other limiting factor at work?
My understanding spread of the virus can be slowed down a lot by masks & washing hands & sanitising shared space & 2m distance & avoid close space gatherings, these tend to work on aggregate rather than individual cases, so they are hard to get them taken seriously as basic defence without a total lockdown first or other aggressive measures? or at least some nationwide level consciousness and individual common sense?
I think nation consciousness is a biggest factor, Rt goes to 10. when head of state handshakes and hugs every guy on earth while Rt goes to 1. when he is in a ICU bed, the basic measures need common consciousness 1st & common sense 2nd and they should have got us out of this smoothly than the current painful experience from denial 1st & police prison 2nd, without even the need for aggressive or symbolic lockdown measures
Also, there could be some other factors like hot summer & mutations but they are so complex that one can’t simply count on them but may help for a faster recovery in 6months…
LeSving wrote:
Young people don’t infect each other and don’t get sick in remotely equal fashion as old people.
Read what @MedEwok has written! It is NOT an old people’s illness, even though the heavy symthoms and deaths are mostly experienced by them. In your above sentence the latter part may be correct, but the first part “don’t infect” is wrong. Especcially people who are asymthomatic are the big danger as they do spread the virus unknowingly! That is why several countries who relax their measures now insist on masks being worn in public!
LeSving wrote:
Finland and Island have very few deaths, less than Norway and Denmark, Sweden not so much
Yet.
LeSving wrote:
It is simply not at schools and kindergarten this virus is spread, even though all “intuition” say that would be the case.
Kids may not be in danger from it but teachers and other adults working there are. That was the main reason for closing the schools, along with the fact that kids can take the virus home and infect their parents or grandparents. Right now, those who re-open schools don’t just go back to normal as I could see from Denmark for instance, they also practice social distancing and hygiene as much as possible.
There is a good possibility that opening up in stages now will work primarily because at this stage of the pandemic, people are sufficiently concerned to adhere to the hygiene measures properly and to keep them going (what may well be needed for a very long time, up to two years unless they can find a vaccine). If that works, we can open up further, if it does not and people continue to spread the disease, the openings of today will be reversed before you know it. The big problem with this is the incubation time… Open up now and you know the result in 2 weeks earliest. Each correction will only show with a long delay.
Ibra wrote:
I think nation consciousness is a biggest factor, Rt goes to 10. when head of state handshakes and hugs every guy on earth while Rt goes to 1. when he is in a ICU bed, the basic measures need common consciousness 1st & common sense 2nd and they should have got us out of this smoothly than the current painful experience from denial 1st & police prison 2nd, without even the need for aggressive or symbolic lockdown measures
Correct. If people cooperate and stop negating this, we will be much better off.
The infection of Johnson has done that in the UK to a degree. Also the description of what it actually is and how it feels bloody horrible by some rather well known people whom people will listen to (Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson as one example) has told people they really don’t want to dick around with it, you don’t need to die from it for it to be quite horrible to get through. Also recent research which asks the question of long term effects and the re-infections in South Korea has gotten people to think.
Another data point from the guardian live update:
“where a study of blood donors has discovered that around 3% have developed antibodies against the new coronavirus, giving an indication of what percentage of the Dutch population may have already had the disease.
The head of the National Institute for Health (RIVM), Jaap van Dissel, disclosed the results during a debate with parliament on Thursday.
“This study shows that about 3% of Dutch people have developed antibodies against the coronavirus,” Van Dissel said. “You can calculate from that, it’s several hundred thousand people” in a country of 17 million.
Possibly about 3% of the population in netherlands, and tallies with a about 1% mortality rate.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
It is NOT an old people’s illness, even though the heavy symthoms and deaths are mostly experienced by them
All experience up til now show that it is NOT a “school problem”. It simply is very unproblematic for younger people, lets say 30-. Closing schools and kindergartens is exactly the kind of solution that do a lot of harm (to society and the children), but very little good. You could ask, why did Denmark and Norway do it. The answer is it was a “better safe than sorry” solution, and a solution that people accepted with few questions asked. The point is, the overall experience form many countries shows that closing schools and kindergartens is NOT the right way to deal with this disease. And this is a very good thing.
But I mean, lots of bad things happen at school. You people get drugs at schools, school shooting and whatnot. You have to look at the big picture, not at single events. Sure, a 12 year old can get Covid-19 at school, just as a 12 year old can be addicted to heroin at school. You cannot look at the situation with those kind of glasses.
