Anyone planning to attend this event? If the weather works, I might fly in for the day on Friday. I have not tried to book a slot yet, so might get blocked at that step.
If the weather is right, I’ll overfly it on Friday ! (but I won’t be stopping there)
I’ve had to cancel my plans to fly there today due to Lyon weather. Lost my 30 Euro booking fee. :(
I feel you (just canceled the 3-day trip because of those TSRA).
Same here…
I had a return trip planned this morning to Annecy LFLP in the 7-10Z window that I cancelled:
METAR LFLP 070500Z AUTO 05002KT CAVOK 16/14 Q1019 TEMPO VRB15G30KT 2000 TSRA BKN050CB=
The TEMPO block remained unchanged until 0800Z METARs. What strikes me is that according to a friend living there, the weather was good for the entire morning with no sign of any phenomenon mentioned in the TEMPO…
The nearby LSGG station looked more benign and very representative of LFLP weather:
METAR LSGG 070520Z AUTO VRB03KT 9999 FEW055 16/15 Q1019 NOSIG=
The TAF I used for the go/no-go decision in LFLP looked bad as well:
TAF LFLP 070200Z 0703/0803 VRB02KT CAVOK
TEMPO 0705/0721 SCT060CB BKN080
PROB40 TEMPO 0706/0711 VRB15G30KT 2000 TSRA BKN050CB
BECMG 0709/0711 16006KT
PROB40 TEMPO 0715/0721 VRB15G30KT 2000 TSRA BKN050CB
BECMG 0721/0723 VRB02KT=
Over the morning, no sign of CB (TEMPO block), but the PROB40 TSRA block put me off.
ECMWF models forecasted TSRA much later in the day in this area and the DWD low-altitude WX charts were not as pessimistic.
All of this made the decision harder to achieve and with hindsight the flight would have been doable.
But as we say in French, “when there is a doubt, there is no doubt”…
BOD wrote:
PROB40 TSRA block put me off
My old IR teacher used to say he disregards PROB40 and less. The TSRA might happen, but if it was an active front or a compact area full of CB’s there’d be no TEMPO. This will most likely be a cell here and a cell there, which you can easily avoid.
In your example, it might happen at some point in the morning, or in the afternoon. Or not at all. The ceilings in all the TEMPO’s also means there is plenty of space below. Remember METARs give cloud base height relative to the airport in question, not altitude.
The only one thing I strongly dislike in the current LFLY TAF is TS*GR*. Only golf balls should look like golf balls, need a hangar.
The storm passed right over Lyon, and there’s still a lot of rain over a big chunk of the Rhône valley.
For my trip at least I have absolutely zero regrets ! (although the train track had a power failure, so I guess everyone is in the same boat)
For this morning and Lyon / Annecy, I think for such a small distance I would have tried in the air, provided the route allows for an escape at all times. If you’re not sure about turning back or diverting, not attempting is a completely valid course.
The danger with piling CB with high bases is of course visibility, and the fact that very similar predictions (30% in fact, not even 40%) led to heavy rain in Lyon this afternoon proves that you have to take them into account. Even more so IFR in IMC (see the recent thread about EMBED ISOL CB in forecasts).
