Most likely this was an engine out, followed by best glide speed and descent over a couple thousand feet, followed by CFIT in unforgiving terrain.
EuroFlyer wrote:
Most likely this was an engine out
I said already in the first page that the pilot declared total loss of engine but, interestingly, in page 15 we are still discussing about the weather :-)
It’s all guesswork, but without the bad weather they would perhaps have had more free capacity for fuel management, if it was fuel starvation on one tank, they would have been at a higher altitude and had more time to glide in case of some mechanical failure, they would have discovered some flat ground (agricultural fields) around Móra d’Ebre, where they did the 270° turn, that would have offered much better chances for a perhaps successful emergency landing. So one cannot say the tragedy was not weather related.
nobbi wrote:
t’s all guesswork,
Accidents are very rarely the end result of one decision/one factor. The Swiss cheese scenario where the holes line up perfectly.
Had the engine not quit, and had the weather been ok, and had the terrain been flat and had we not actually set out, and should we have delayed, blah blah.
When the luck all runs out..
BeechBaby wrote:
The Swiss cheese scenario where the holes line up perfectly
I don’t like this way of reasoning. It’s more like astrology, the alignments of planets and stuff. It’s not scientific IMO. Safety is all about margins. If you lower one margin, it follows that other margins also lowers. Say you lower the margins of fuel to 1 min extra. Then you automatically have lowered all other margins of flying. You have to fly at the precise speed at the precise alt. Any wind factor increasing more than planned, even by less than a knot, will be disastrous and so on. An extra bug on the wing could kill you due to extra drag. Ga isn’t a fine tuned machinery like some airlines at least like to be. The cheese theory is just an excuse for too small margins and/or a sloppy system that only looks good on paper.
Spanish authorities have published a short report. It’s now confirmed that they reported engine troubles of some kind.
Well. One cause after all… It is rather amazing the level of trust we put into these engines sometimes. The solution exists. Used on microlights and the Cirrus. It would with almost 100% certainty have saved everyone here.
It’s probably not that simple. If it really was an engine stoppage, to end up upside down (as the report states) you would also need
It is interesting to note that if you get a total engine stoppage (e.g. a broken crankshaft) then you will lose the vacuum, and any vacuum instrument(s). In such a case, electric gyro instruments will become essential. A lot of planes, especially old ones, have only a single vacuum AI. Normally this is a great backup for all sorts of scenarios but if the engine actually stops then you will lose that, and most likely gradually so you end up upside down without realising it unless watching the TC as well.