Since Peter seems to like strange TAFs, here’s one that caught my eye.
TAF EGSS 081659Z 0818/0924 35010KT 9999 FEW048
PROB30 0818/0820 09008KT
BECMG 0820/0823 VRB03KT
BECMG 0906/0909 34010KT
BECMG 0915/0918 06010KT
PROB30 TEMPO 0918/0924 BKN014=
I’m used to seeing something like VRB03KT PROB30 TEMPO 0818/0820 09015G25KT, but I don’t remember seeing a lonely PROB30 associated with a 90 degree wind shift. Here’s what happened:
METAR EGSS 082250Z AUTO 12004KT 9999 NCD 20/12 Q1027=
METAR EGSS 082220Z AUTO 11005KT 9999 NCD 20/12 Q1027=
METAR EGSS 082150Z AUTO 12005KT 060V140 9999 NCD 20/12 Q1027=
METAR EGSS 082120Z AUTO 11007KT 9999 NCD 20/12 Q1027=
METAR EGSS 082050Z AUTO 11007KT 060V140 9999 NCD 21/11 Q1027=
METAR EGSS 082020Z AUTO 12007KT 9999 NCD 22/11 Q1026=
METAR EGSS 081950Z AUTO 07006KT 350V120 9999 NCD 23/13 Q1026=
METAR EGSS 081920Z AUTO 07008KT 030V110 9999 NCD 25/13 Q1026=
METAR EGSS 081850Z AUTO 05010KT 9999 NCD 25/14 Q1026=
METAR EGSS 081820Z AUTO 05011KT 9999 NCD 27/14 Q1026=
METAR EGSS 081750Z AUTO 01010KT 9999 NCD 28/14 Q1025=
The forecast for this evening is more like what I would have expected yesterday.
TAF EGSS 091053Z 0912/1018 34006KT 9999 FEW045
BECMG 0916/0919 06010KT
PROB40 TEMPO 0917/1002 BKN014
BECMG 0923/1002 36008KT=
I guess that they were trying to give a steer on the likelihood of the sea-breeze reaching as far inland at Stansted, as it sometimes does, sometimes it doesn’t.
For a few days recently Lydd and Southend have been on an South-easterly/ Easterly wind (using the easterly runways), whilst all the other London airports have been on westerly operations with wind from that direction.
I had an interesting one a couple of weekends ago on a trip to Oban. Winds were quite strong on the ground everywhere (19kt crosswind at Oban, similar wind speeds all over the Isle of Man when we got back), but the winds aloft were absolutely zero above about 2000 feet. It seemed more than merely an onshore breeze. Unfortunately I forgot to see if the wind speeds and direction was consistent over a wide area at the surface.
Hawkwind wrote:
I guess that they were trying to give a steer on the likelihood of the sea-breeze reaching as far inland at Stansted, as it sometimes does, sometimes it doesn’t.
Interesting idea, but I would have thought a bit late in the day fro a sea breeze to develop. The land, at least at EGSS, was rapidly cooling as the sun fell.
