However, advertised prices have always been marked up some 20-30%
That was the case. I don’t think that Cherokee will sell for 30% less though… the market has changed considerably.
The inventory is shrinking fast and similarly capable planes cost 3 times more new!
One needs to ask the same Q which electronics designers/buyers are asking: where is this demand coming from?
In electronics, it is totally fake. There is no increase in end user demand. Well there was during lockdown because everybody was buying stuff on amazon etc, but that’s ending now.
In GA planes, I am sure it is fake too. Are we seeing a big increase in GA activity? No. GA flying collapsed during the epidemic, and even now loads of people are barely getting back into it. Quite a few used the event to re-evaluate their priorities and have given up totally. I think that will be a big problem in due course but that’s another story. Are people buying planes as investments? Of course not – that would be really dumb. So what are people doing with these £100k+ PA28s? It doesn’t add up.
The only Q is when it will collapse. It will collapse when supply catches up with the demand. In electronics, I reckon end of 2021 / early 2022; that is when huge new production volumes will start coming through.
And even if PA28 supplies dried up (because the airframes are falling apart and are being parted-out, etc) there are loads of other planes which can be flown instead. Not long ago an old, say 1984, TB20, was worth only about 40k. Also remember that at 100k hull value, it is worth importing from the US, and there are loads there.
Yes, new planes cost a lot more, but almost nobody has been buying new PA28s in the last few decades. The original stock overhang from the 1970s/80s is still mostly there. The supply/demand equation has not changed.
Peter wrote:
So what are people doing with these £100k+ PA28s? It doesn’t add up.
They are buying and owning relatively timeless tangible objects and feeling more secure as a result, in a world where it’s been recently proved that ‘timeless’ rights they took for granted are not so secure. I think the revitalized market will endure for a while, people have long emotional memories after troubling life experiences.
The light aircraft market is a lot more whimsical than you might assume, at least (on topic) in the US it is, and that’s a good thing because it means people (still) have the money to support a whimsical ownership experience, enjoyed for its own sake.
Some of this is because used aircraft have been a fantastic deal compared with new ones, some because people now want to own things that last and make them feel good. The same thing is a factor driving the US housing market. Very little of it has to do with solving a urgent practical problem via a purchase.
Peter wrote:
And even if PA28 supplies dried up (because the airframes are falling apart and are being parted-out, etc) there are loads of other planes which can be flown instead.
I’m not sure there is Peter. Sadly there isn’t much that can replace a C152 in the training market.
I think that is because
and the PA38 was just a little toooo crappy (and smelt a little tooo much like a public lavatory, due to the water leaks)It is perfectly possible to do a PPL in a PA28 (my son has just done it). It just costs more… but you save on conversion time because you are current on a type which is actually useful.
Peter wrote:
It is perfectly possible to do a PPL in a PA28 (my son has just done it)
Mine was on PA28 too…
Bathman wrote:
Sadly there isn’t much that can replace a C152 in the training market.
Indeed, this is what we saw with the C162 Skycatcher. Same deal for the PA28.
Before I started flying myself I looked down upon “spam cans” such as PA28, C172 etc, but as a freshly minted PPL (as of Friday) the Warrior 3 I fly may as well be an F16. No matter how fast or expensive a car is, the lowly PA28 can fly across the country in a third of the time :) That being said, 125k on a Warrior 2 with 8000 hours? No way in hell would I spend that.
IO390 wrote:
Before I started flying myself I looked down upon “spam cans” such as PA28, C172 etc, but as a freshly minted PPL (as of Friday) the Warrior 3 I fly may as well be an F16.
That’s wonderful. I remember being delayed by weather in leaving for a 400 mile flight in my Luscombe. At 1 PM I finally got airborne, but I arrived in time for dinner with friends. It felt like time travel on 65 HP 
I was puzzled would one buy a PA28 or C152/C172 when they can rent it? you have more choice & more availability, some are top upgraded and still way cheaper than flying yours now I should replace that with why people buy Robin DR400 ?
I can answer this one: because you can take it away more than from one evening until the next morning, and in my particular case, better availability (because the club has PA28s and they’re selling them right now for £££ :-) ). In the UK, at least, you can also get something that might be a bit nicer.
On choice and availability, for the price for two hours flying / year I maintain membership of the local flying club so I have access to their aircraft when mine is unavailable.
