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Lilium electric VTOL jet

Yes, you are right, I think my Merc does that too. It takes the average consumption since the last reset and that is what is uses to calculate the range when you top it off.

Peter wrote:

Indeed; since Noam Chomsky perfected AI c. 1965, I will invest my pension in this project.

Given that you are at retirement age already, that would be a risky bet. However, I don’t see the need for AI in this endeavour.

The challenges are massive. Many of them are not even known.

It’s hard to argue about challenges that are not known. The autonomous air-taxis don’t have to be capable to fly from any point to any other point under all circumstances ab initio. If they only do fixed route trips in protected airspace between designated air-taxi pads, there would already be value in a congested city like Dubai.

I am convinced that with the technology available today, it is perfectly feasible to develop air-taxis for certain well defined use cases. From then on, it’s just about gradual and continuous improvements.

The Volocopter project (which was present at this year’s and last year’s AERO) is very close to commercial availability and it is well thought out. Their vehicles are supposed to be the first ones to be used in Dubai.

Well let me throw in one simple thing: GPS jamming.

Currently few people bother because it mostly just causes hassle to people using satnav, and unless it is done cleverly it will be so localised it won’t matter.

With air taxis relying on it, you could do some really funky stuff, especially if you know (and perhaps don’t like) one of the passengers

So the thing would need high spec inertial nav and sensing technology which doesn’t even exist yet.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

achimha wrote:

The Lillium investors are serious outfits

And they won’t be the first such outfit to loose serious money in aviation.

EGTF, LFTF

It doesn’t have to be perfect and safe from any type of attack or circumstances. It doesn’t take too much effort to make you fly into a mountain on an ILS approach in IMC by manipulating the indicators you use. It’s also technically possible to disorient ships driving in the Channel during fog. Doesn’t stop traffic in the Channel even though much more is at stake than 2 people in a hipster-air-taxi.

The GPS scenario can be mitigated by having good system integrity checks and another means of orientation such as following a directed encrypted beam.

We see 3 things coming together:

  • Innovative solutions by skilled engineers
  • Backing by serious investors that are known to be realistic in their thinking
  • Demand by the public sector (Dubai and others)

Before the Brazilian economy crashed, commuting by helicopter inside the city was very much en vogue and helipads appeared on every respectable building. I have sat for hours in a car next to multi-millionaires in Mumbai who wouldn’t move faster than the cow in front despite all their money. There’s definitely a market.

achimha wrote:

Dubai is already experimenting with autonomous air-taxis.

Nothing like a CGI rendering to make you feel safe…
I followed that Chinese marketing gimmick as soon as it emerged.
Never seen so much as a 20kg dumbbell fly in the real thing.
Have fun being the odd statistic in the experiment where someone died.

Having spent too much time in Software, I’m not more confident of the programmer’s ability to eliminate issues than I am my own body’s ability to detect forces in play, which is a primary indicator in stalls.

I’ll be glad to read the paper about the sad first statistics in it.
Of course there will be transport that way someday, I’m in high-tech, I know that.
But UAV’s aren’t there. We’re at the height of the hype curve. Dangerous place to be if you want reliability in tech.

If DJI came out with an air taxi, I’d consider crawling into one. Their years of experience with millions of systems make them far more liable to have covered all the bases.

Much as I love German engineering, experience is the key.

Dubai is a marketing experiment as well. The whole city. Nothing sustainable there, except for a tax haven for oil princes to hide their money in…

achimha wrote:

The air-taxi only needs cameras and Flarm (for Peter: Avidyne TAS without ADS-B support) and a decent level of redundancy.

Right right. Self-driving cars are having billions dumped into them, but self-flying vehicles are easier…

The real point is public fear. Elon Musk has it right. Having a car drive by you is not scary. Having a car fly over you, is.
They will crash, and when one does, it will be tough to recover from the PR disaster it will cause in the city…
“Air Taxi smashes into skyscraper in Dubai, killing 5”
Sound somehow familiar?

Liability is the killer of aviation. nothing else.

Lilium is real innovation, and I like them and their work. But going straight to Air Taxis, because that’s what Silicon Valley is doing is not the European way. They don’t have the early-adopter market to make it work. They can’t justify killing a Sheik either, which is who will be riding those Taxis….

Best of luck to them, but they’re not properly taking the technology steps of adoption…
That looks something like:
Inventors
Wealthy Experimental AC pilots / Remote Air Taxis/Ambulances
Wealthy Commuters
Upper Class Commuters / Delivery Services / Security & Law Enforcement
Personal Transport|

They will try to make it work, but I don’t see a solid game plan in place for what they’re doing (straight to Dubai Air Taxis).

The Volocopter is miles ahead in terms of the actual applications. Thus the switch in contracts in Dubai from the Chinese garbage to the Volo…

Last Edited by AF at 05 Sep 18:05

achimha wrote:

The GPS scenario can be mitigated by having good system integrity checks and another means of orientation such as following a directed encrypted beam.

Nice in theory, but unless they have access to DDR technologies, that isn’t happening for the price they can charge to be profitable.

Much as I hate to say this, the Silicon Valley companies will win this competition… (again).
Not because they have better technology, but because they have better scalability expertise.

I’m calling for a Google buyout of Lilium in 3 years. :) (any betters?)

AF wrote:

Right right. Self-driving cars are having billions dumped into them, but self-flying vehicles are easier…

Exactly. Fairly easy to create a controlled environment for them. Similar to having fenced and dedicated highways for self driving cars which — if they existed — would have allowed for self-driving cars decades ago.

There are ways to make them rather safe and that isn’t necessarily very difficult. Only let them fly at chute-safe altitude and develop good system monitoring. Accidents can happen but even the immature Tesla pseudo-autopilot that can and has caused fatal accidents is still around.

The Chinese air-taxi Ehang looks pretty clueless, I agree. Doesn’t change the fact that there is a market for this.

AF wrote:

Having spent too much time in Software, I’m not more confident of the programmer’s ability to eliminate issues than I am my own body’s ability to detect forces in play, which is a primary indicator in stalls.

Who flies the aircraft when British Airways perform a zero visibility approach into Heathrow with you and 500 others in the back? Isn’t that software?

AF wrote:

Dubai is a marketing experiment as well. The whole city. Nothing sustainable there, except for a tax haven for oil princes to hide their money in…

I’m not a fan of Dubai either despite having business interests there but what you say sounds awfully similar to what they used to say about Singapore. And yet…

AF wrote:

If DJI came out with an air taxi, I’d consider crawling into one. Their years of experience with millions of systems make them far more liable to have covered all the bases.

Having watched a grown man cry big tears when his new DJI Phantom 3 suddenly said system malfunction and fell into the sea, I’ll gladly let you board the DJI air-taxi

AF wrote:

Much as I hate to say this, the Silicon Valley companies will win this competition… (again).
Not because they have better technology, but because they have better scalability expertise.

I’m calling for a Google buyout of Lilium in 3 years. :) (any betters?)

I don’t think it matters which company succeeds. I think there is a market and there are multiple efforts. I don’t see a major economy of scale at play here either. If this takes off, there will be space for a lot of companies, just like in the car industry. This is not a winner-takes-it-all market.

Maybe the 5000 fatal traffic accidents a year we have in Germany now will be 2000 killed by Amazon drones dropping parcels on their head and 2000 squashed by Ehang Chinese air-taxis? That still would be an improvement of 1000 lives a year.

Last Edited by achimha at 05 Sep 18:23

achimha wrote:

Maybe the 5000 fatal traffic accidents a year we have in Germany now will be 2000 killed by Amazon drones dropping parcels on their head and 2000 squashed by Ehang Chinese air-taxis? That still would be an improvement of 1000 lives a year.

Great line. :)
Absolutely enjoyed that! (still chuckling)

achimha wrote:

Who flies the aircraft when British Airways perform a zero visibility approach into Heathrow with you and 500 others in the back? Isn’t that software?

Yes, good point.
But the programmers are coming from Boeing, who I would also trust (as we all do) as they have nearly a century of experience in aviation. The legacy they’ve left in this department is stunning.

For a startup to produce the level of IP that Boeing has is not really tenable.
But nonetheless, the innovation of Lilium is fantastic, I’m glad to see it, and I hope they are successful in any case, as I appreciate the creativity and desire to deliver innovation to people.

Forgive me for throwing a tantrum for not being able to get one….

Point taken about Singapore BTW. Unfortunately, I’m not old enough to know about it, but would be keen to know about the process that everyone said that about.
I have the highest regard for Singapore, having traveled for work, and seen the place. They are very hard working people, living in the tiniest of quarters, and yet still are a law-abiding populace that deals with a great deal of pressure from a lot of sources.

Appreciate the banter @achimha thanks

I really doubt the quality of Boeing code is to be trusted only on account that its programmers “have 100 years experience in aviation”.

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