From here
I have no idea about your TB20 but I firmly believe that what we are seeing today i.e.
are all the result of the CV19 epidemic, and it will pass by.
On this specific TB20, one could get the engine overhauled for well below €50k if done intelligently, but there is a risk, and it can’t be inspected. The airframe is a risk, but can be inspected. Any parts needed are a risk, but could be pre-verified especially if you park yourself in Portugal, open the thing up, make a list, and check it out with e.g. Troyes Aviation (Tarbes won’t deal with you directly, and Troyes need actual part numbers from the IPC).
But… if the engine starts, and the plane doesn’t come apart, and the bits listed on the TC are present, then it is airworthy and you can fly it home! It won’t be if half the camshaft is in the oil filter, or it is burning > 1 quart per hour, but you won’t know any of that, and “not knowing is good” 
And you know what that means. Somebody will turn up with 99k and fly off with it, and be happy. A friend bought a Renault for £25, ran it for 20 years with no servicing; he just put in petrol and oil. Good old days, fake MOT bought for £25. Eventually it sort of broke in half, like Renaults do after some years. And you will have wasted your time. There is always somebody who cares less than you do, and the one who cares less has more power
BTW there is some GA in Portugal (come to our fly-ins and you will see ) but very little. And due to the language issue you won’t see it on forums (same for other countries of course).
Peter wrote:
people paying any silly money for everything like there was no tomorrow
Yea, well, depends on the definition of tomorrow. If the expectation of tomorrow would be somewhat pre-Covid, there may well not be a tomorrow in many regards, even less so if a certain button is pressed.
I hear from friends who do stuff they always wanted to do now in a big hurry as they literally fear for the future. And in a time where peoples properties get taken away just because they have a specific passport, the notion of ownership and property has been rocked massively. I guess if it starts hitting those who are baying with the pack right now that in different circumstances it could be THEIR property which gets confiscated due to someone not liking what their government does we will see a massive movement of capital out of the EU and the US.
But right now yes, people are buying because they often enough fear hyperinflation or total meltdown and put their money in things they can either enjoy or which will for most time stand the test of time.
Used airplanes have become a commodity right now, as there is an acute shortage of offers. Some makes have all but gone from the marketplace so any one which pops up will be immediately taken. Friend of mine was looking for a Turbo Twin Commanche, no joy for the last 6 months in a viable offer so he grabbed a Seneca which had the right price. That one was on the market for 3 days….
If someone has the right talents and means, I think the portugese TB20´s could make a cunning investor quite a bit of money. The same goes for the Seneca V´s there.
Yeah… we will all die soon.
Could do with a little less doom / nuclear war tomorrow / etc.
Anybody who has so totally capitulated ought to build a bunker and fill it up with cans of beans.
Could do with a little less doom / nuclear war tomorrow / etc.
Instead of a new panel get one of these :)
That is not an April fool’s joke!?
RobertL18C wrote:
Instead of a new panel get one of these :)
LOL, interesting. I hear RV’ing is huge in the US and some of those things are really impressive. I think in the US I’d quite possibly do this for a while, cute way to travel the country with your own hotel room attached.
@Peter, you are wondering why the prices are like this in GA, well imho the incertainty and the current state of affairs is a huge reason why. People have realized that nothing is safe and sure anymore, so they want to do things NOW and not in 2 years or “after the retirement” which loads of people never get to do. So they buy airplanes, take trips, do whatever they can, because they have learnt in the last 2 years that it is not granted that they can. Everyone with a bit or realism in their heads know that next Winter some restrictions will return, so people want to travel now. Loads off folks who have the means are sick of airline travel and go GA if they can, the boom in the schools over the last 2 years show this. And on the other issue, I see people scrambling to go places they have on their bucket list for insane ticket prices just “to get it done”.
If I’ve learnt one thing in my not so stellar past is that apart from seeing my daughter grow up what I value most are my memories no-one can take away from me. I can loose my house, I can loose my job or my life, but nobody can take away what I have done.
IMHO that is why we see price hikes everywhere as demand for things like GA soar despite airport managers everywhere trying hard to stifle it. It’s demand vs availability.
And looking at this market situation, people will accept prices even for “dogs” if that is the type they are looking for, because they don’t want to spend 2-3 years looking for a viable airframe. Hence, while the price is steep for this TB20GT, it reflects the acute shortage in such airframes and those which are available practically all have other issues. So 99k to achieve 80 or so, plus as you say 40k for the engine and another 20 for a new navigator plus maybe another 20k to rectify whatever went wrong in 2 years, that makes it a 160k GT version with zero hour engine. And that is not over the top given today’s market, I would even expect up to 200k potential for this kind of airplane with this AP and the GT model vs the standard TB20. That does not even include the possibility that if the engine is running and airworthy, under part NCO or N-Reg it does not need an overhaul as long as it is within tolerance. That would make it a 100-120k airframe with a new GPS and a thorough annual.
Heck, a “lowly” F Mooney here with a Stec 30 and an Aspen went for well of 100k a few months past with mid time engine and nothing special on it other than it was ready to fly. An airframe like that would have yielded maybe half that 3 years ago.
And yea, it is pretty much the same as the property market, where houses go for insane prices, often unseen. If every single house offered, even the worst shack, goes within 2-3 days for 300-500% over estimate, that means simply that there is not enough to satisfy demand. And demand is huge due to the fact that properties are the one thing which hardly ever use value in the long term.
So it’s not doom and gloom for quite a few industries, which have profited largely from the current state of affairs. Anxiety in people will however change the behaviour pattern of many people and with it their will to spend money on stuff they would not have before. If I had the means and the way to do exploit it (i.e. a maintenance organisation who could make things happen fast) I’d be in Portugal right now, not for this particular GT but for the others which are for sale in that big hangar, ex flight school, TB20 and Seneca V’s.
On people pouring money in useless gadgets this is Mike aircraft, something tells me this is an irrational pricing bubble or spending exuberance
From the NYT, EU is preparing an embargo on russian oil.
The earliest the proposed E.U. embargo will be put up for negotiation will be after the final round of the French elections, on April 24, to ensure that the impact on prices at the pump doesn’t fuel the populist candidate Marine Le Pen and hurt president Emmanuel Macron’s chances of re-election, officials said.
[…]What once seemed an impossible step for Europe was now likely
Oil price will soar even more, we can forget about the easy life we had with cheap energy. Imagine the social disorders and the state reaction to come.
And they choose to do it.
But they first wait a few days to let Macron be reelected. Talk about democracy.
I suppose we could elect Le Pen, who would do a deal with Russia for discounted oil, in return for election expenses. Then we could have a Frexit which will push the price of everything else back up. Meanwhile she would hire a couple of ships which in the middle of the night will take all the migrants camped out on Calais beaches and dump them on a UK beach.
Does that sound good to you?🙃
This is broken on the main page:
