I have been driving electric for 10 years and following battery tech. It’s definitely moving at a rapid pace, in that density has improved by a factor of 5x or so in that 10 years. However the physics for GA aircraft and big airliners are still quite challenging.
My latest EV is a brand-new Fiat 500 that gets about 300km of range but weighs 1360kg—or 400kg more than the ICE version. Basic empty weight of my TB10 is ~750kg. An equivalent electric motor to the O360 will save some weight, but you’re still going to be at gross weight with a decent battery and no pax—and there’s no option to carry less fuel and more people. Realistically a 4-6-seat airplane needs another 4-5x improvement in capacity before it becomes doable for touring—possibly less for training and local flying. I would love to see this happen, but I don’t know that we’ll get the same level of improvement in the next 10 years that we achieved in the last.
Where it may initially make sense is short-haul commuter flights, where you have enough space to carry the battery weight with fewer pax, yet still be profitable because of reduced fuel and maintenance.
Even with 10x on battery capacity, you still have the “refuelling downtime” issue.
Even if a rapid charge (say 10 mins) becomes possible, then you have the capital investment. If an airport wants to get a multi megawatt supply connected up, it will cost them millions if they are in the middle of nowhere which is where most GA ones are.
It would also kill the strip community, which could never afford this (they can barely afford to cut the grass) and which dominates GA in a number of countries.
All true. I was only thinking of the physics of the aircraft itself, but there are all kinds of hurdles. I’m not saying it won’t happen, and I really hope it does, but I’m less optimistic that it will happen quickly as it has for ground vehicles. The situation seems even less promising for long-range transport category aircraft. And this is coming from someone who has bought into EVs and believes they are the future.
I don’t understand why it must be this OR that. There is no reason (other than economy) that truly will make one thing take completely over for something else. Electric propulsion will create new solutions and opportunities that don’t exist today.
Sabine Hossenfelder’s take on electric aircraft propulsion and other types of fuel 
Good video.
Gosh; she is rather non-PC… if she posted some of that here, there would be an uproar
I don’t understand why it must be this OR that. There is no reason (other than economy) that truly will make one thing take completely over for something else. Electric propulsion will create new solutions and opportunities that don’t exist today.
For sure, but, as she illustrates, one struggles to achieve any significant % in most applications. Electric cars achieve a reasonable market share (like Iphones/Ipads – in the rich parts of rich countries) but it will always be limited by owner circumstances (practical charging options) regardless of how battery tech progresses. OTOH, everybody who can drive can use a petrol or diesel car.
Peter wrote:
Gosh; she is rather non-PC
Perhaps. I would call it very refreshingly straight forward and pragmatic though
Peter wrote:
but it will always be limited by owner circumstances
It’s 100% an economic thing. Electric cars will become the cheaper options very soon, and then it is goodbye to diesel and gasoline for all foreseeable future. Things also go other ways. Electric bikes and scooters have reduced the need for cars for many people. A bit weird, but it’s a fact
and then it is goodbye to diesel and gasoline for all foreseeable future
Except for people who cannot keep a car where it can be charged. I don’t have stats but would say it’s true in Europe for most people living in apartments.
Electric bikes and scooters have reduced the need for cars for many people. A bit weird, but it’s a fact
That is true; less so in the winter 
Also it works better in a country which has installed proper bike lanes (which most of Europe has not done).
Hybrid Air Vehicles announces collaboration with HIAL
https://imnews.mydigitalnewspaper.com/viewarticles/HNMIC/BUSINESS/hnm8373287hnmic
LeSving wrote:
Sabine Hossenfelder’s take on electric aircraft propulsion and other types of fuel
Seems like a lot of hassle to avoid a fraction of the 2.5% CO2 contribution from aviation to the world total
Interestingly, she refers to a study that lists having fewer kids as the single biggest thing by far that a person can do to minimize climate change. Seems effective, since a zero-children policy will prob99 result in the problem *err, I mean challenge) being reduced to not mattering any more to anyone in a single generation.
I myself have three of those at home, well above the EU average of 1.6 per couple…well you can either blame me for climate change, or thank me for my kids’ contribution to your future government pension and other services being twice your average…
Seriously, why do we stress so much the 2.5% while so little is done about the elephant in the room?
So the new management 101 is to invest the 80% of resources that will fix 20% of the problem challenge , or was it the other way around? I am getting lost…
