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Does the number of VFR flyable days increase in N. Europe?

I have zero data to back this up, but it seems to me that through climate change, the number of days where you can fly VFR is increasing a lot. In this year at least, I can barely remember any days where you couldn’t fly VFR for at least 100 nm in Northern Germany since about March.

This despite the weather in Northern Germany being infamously rainy, cloudy and windy compared to the south. October was an especially good example, we had hardly any of the typical fog and very few rain or bad visibility. The wind can be a problem on some days, but even that seemed calmer to me than in previous years.

Low-hours pilot
EDVM Hildesheim, Germany

The German weather service DWD recently published some report that the number of days with fog has significantly gone down over recent years.
Their explanation :
Warmer air being able to carry more water
Less pollution creating less nuclei for condensation.

The first i find somewhat counterintuitive, as the warmer air can carry more water, but is equally likely to have taken up more before ? So dew point should be higher.

Anyway it is consistent with the few years that I am watching the weather around Munich (less fog and faster dissolving). May be an observation bias, though.

...
EDM_, Germany

I can barely remember any days where you couldn’t fly VFR for at least 100 nm in Northern Germany since about March

It depends if you are flying or just watching forecast/actual weather

When flying you tend to apply more conservative factors and limit uncertainty on weather forecasts, while when watching you tend to see actual weather , also, I am always disappointed that most of the days looks flyable when I am stuck at home or work

Now taking your argument a bit further, given that all the days since March looks flyable, can you depart on 100nm XC without even checking the weather tomorrow? after all you have very good odds that it’s a brilliant day

In terms of ceiling & visibility in Northern Europe: roughly, 3/5 day would allow Delta VFR and XC on PPL, 9/10 days would allow SVFR in CTR on PPL, 97/100 would allow private PPL+IR flying…you will still have additional effects from local weather, terrain, crosswinds, thunderstorms and icing…but the numbers give you a proxy of how much flying you would get if you have +/-1 day or +/2 days flexibility on your dates

Last Edited by Ibra at 09 Nov 09:27
Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

This website / tool is nice to play around with to get a sense of flyable weather conditions:

https://datastudio.google.com/reporting/bf865e8b-77dc-41bb-b17e-f97009d81c77/page/idUDC

LSZF Birrfeld, LFSB Basel-Mulhouse, Switzerland

Indeed, I have used that while ago for selecting alternates

For EDVM using nearby EDDV as proxy, the numbers of flyable days have not changed much 2021/2022 but even for VFR it looks flyable 9 days out of 10 which is better than most Europe

Again, one does not fly based on raw METAR statistics: they will check weather and also apply more conservative factors and personal minima on TAF forecasts before departing, they also move flight by +/-1day or +/-2h

Last Edited by Ibra at 09 Nov 09:37
Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

Ibra wrote:

It depends if you are flying or just watching forecast/actual weather

When flying you tend to apply more conservative factors and limit uncertainty on weather forecasts, while when watching you tend to see actual weather , also, I am always disappointed that most of the days looks flyable when I am stuck at home or work

Excellent point, @Ibra. My observation was indeed based on actual day-to-day weather as I see it outside the windows, as well as the data I get from my DWD Flugwetter subscription, which I use very often even on days where I neither fly nor drive any significant distance by car.

I wish I could base it on lots of actual VFR XC trips this year, but that’s not the case.

Last Edited by MedEwok at 09 Nov 09:50
Low-hours pilot
EDVM Hildesheim, Germany

This year has not been a good light aircraft VFR year for me, based at EGPE Inverness, but living 50 miles from the airport. I’m waiting for the weather to average out with a stable anticyclone.
Low pressure seems to sit to the west, causing more south and east wind than usual.

Maoraigh
EGPE, United Kingdom

I think wx has become more convective at altitude, over the past 20 years.

It’s a bit like working out whether this is true. One could do an analysis of metars over years but nobody is likely to want to bother

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

I have no data to back it up right now but I will try to get some together and, if it’s ok with @MedEwok point some friends from the DWD in the direction of this thread so they can have a look for the area he lives.

But like @MedEwok I think he may well be right, at least for my area. I will try to compile some data to back it up, but from where I am sitting at the Obs station at ZRH airport and from my work place, I would think yes, in 2022 at least VFR capable days have increased as opposed to before, at least where the area north of the Alps is concerned.

Having said that, a data point I did a few years back did indeed show that since the introduction of GAFOR, around 70% of the days in that area were VFR as opposed to 30% when crossing the Alps is involved. Actually I would have to really get a look at both of those factors, it would be very interesting to see if something significant has changed for the Alpine crossing quote.

In general, Summer here has become much more dry and consequently more VFR capable. Winter has been fairly mild. It is mid November now and fog days (days with persisting ground fog or low overcast) appear to have decreased in comparison to other fall months. Again, I will need to put some data together to back it up, but yes, the “feel” is definitly that VFR has been on the up here in central Europe.

It is one bit that I’ve been missing of the Climate Change discussion: Apart from doom and gloom, may there actually be new chances coming with the challenges? Some folks I have talked to tend to admit, that a slightly warmer climate here in central Europe may actually have beneficial effects both on us humans and on the environment as well:
- with milder winter months, there would be less heating oil or gas or electricity needed, hence less CO2 and other emissions.
- More sunshine will make solar energy more viable. Already now, there is a massive increase of solar energy being used by companies and private people.
- people are outside longer and more often in the colder months, which would decrease infection risks for Covid and Flu and add vitamin D.
I am sure there are more effects which need looking at. Also, as the EU has de facto abolished the summer/wintertime change over, it is my opinion that the “fixed” time should stay on summer rather than winter time as it is, in the true sense of the word, daylight saving. Warmer climate would further make this useful.

Last Edited by Mooney_Driver at 11 Nov 08:19
LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland

Mooney_Driver wrote:

it is my opinion that the “fixed” time should stay on summer rather than winter time as it is, in the true sense of the word, daylight saving. Warmer climate would further make this useful.

I have long argued that in the UK we should either stay permanently on ‘Summer time’ i.e. GMT + 1, or remain on that through the winter and go (back) to ‘Double’ Summer time i.e. GMT + 2 in the summer itself.
This was done during war time, with the argument – and fact – of how much energy was saved.
Isn’t that the topic of the moment – yet no seems to mention our clock settings.

Rochester, UK, United Kingdom
22 Posts
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