Russian invasion of Ukraine

which was all about getting production “back home”

Firstly, that was never going to happen, because most people in the West don’t want to get their hands dirty doing those jobs. Lots of hot air…

Secondly, and I know this from business over past 30 years, China is not what it was way back. The huge price advantage is long gone. They are maybe 1/3 of the cost but from that you have to subtract various things like shipping, commercial risk (business failure) etc. I’ve posted about this extensively already. So the potential for “re-shoring” is increasing every year and you don’t need a Trump to drive it. China is awfully busy screwing itself by greed, incompetence and a spreading make money fast gangster culture. But the really low value stuff will remain there. The most that might happen is it may go to S Korea or some such, but (I’ve looked at this) SK doesn’t have the setup.

And Vietnam

That was a different situation, and 50-60 years ago.

Afghanistan was a cockup. Lots of lessons learnt.

Russia has stepped-up war production, west did not, really

Hmmm, no. Lots going on.

esteban wrote:

they have seen what Ukrainian forces did to the population of Izyum when Ukraine retook it and would not be looking forward to experience that themselves

So what did they do at Izyum?

Peter wrote:

I was being ironic – always a dangerous thing

I was a bit slow off the mark, but did realise that after it was too late to edit my post!

Russia has stepped-up war production, west did not, really

Just today’s news:

The population in the eastern regions consistently voted for pro-russian Ukrainian presidents since Ukraine’s independence

Why did they stay and not move to Russia c. 1990? Let me guess. No washing machines They are now no doubt hoping that Ukraine will join the EU and these people will get nice apartments, nice kitchens, etc. Equally I have no sympathy for the few % of Czech (and probably more Slovak) 5th columnists; they should put their money where their mouth is, and relocate to Russia where they can enjoy the daily predictability of “socialism”

It is for good reasons that much of the current Russian infantry comes from regions with no running water, no electricity, no gas… If you come from a place like that, going to war is a good option. The survival rate of currently active Russian infantry is below 10%. This is worse than anything in WW1.

This is quite interesting

Peter wrote:

Why did they stay and not move to Russia c. 1990?

Because pre-1990 they WERE in Russia and where they lived was their home.

Whenever countries split up, you get this kind of stuff where people used to live all over the place first and after the split found themselves in a new country who does not look kindly onto it’s former oppressors, yet people who live there still look at where they are as their home. There are plenty of examples like that, most of them ended in either mass deportations or evictions or, mostly later, with ethnic uprisings. And if the split happens as something one of the countries looks at as the “largest geopolitical disaster in memory” it is not astonishing that this will turn into civil war eventually and into a war of nations as it has done now.

It won’t solve anything, just the opposite, hatred on both sides is now well past of a point of no return.

Peter wrote:

The population in the eastern regions consistently voted for pro-russian Ukrainian presidents since Ukraine’s independence

Why did they stay and not move to Russia c. 1990? Let me guess. No washing machines They are now no doubt hoping that Ukraine will join the EU and these people will get nice apartments, nice kitchens, etc. Equally I have no sympathy for the few % of Czech (and probably more Slovak) 5th columnists; they should put their money where their mouth is, and relocate to Russia where they can enjoy the daily predictability of “socialism”

C’mon Peter, you can do better.

Those people (and their forefathers) lived their whole life in Doneck/Luhansk, that’s their home. Why would they move to Russia? They just wanted their home to be more hospitable for them. Their requirement has not been separation from Ukraine and joining Russia, they wanted autonomy.

And regarding ‘no washing machines’. The life in the Ukraine has been worse than in Russia – the corruption on par, if not worse, less natural resources and less political stability. Look up the statistics, throughout its whole independence, Ukraine has been poorer than Russia.

And finally ‘re 5th columnists’ (I presume me?): Totally missing the point. My whole point here is not that Russia is a great country where I want to live (it is not, and I truly feel sorry for the Russians there; btw USA has also its problems and I don’t want to live there either – although I freely admit there is less reason to feel sorry for Americans), but that the West (with overwhelming contribution of USA, honorable mention to UK as well) has its fair share in creating and propagating this mess, and unless it changes its ways, thing will only get worse (just wait for the China episode…).

Overly simplified analogy:
1) you see your buddy is going to be beaten up by BigBadUglyGuy (let’s ignore for now why, that is another long story)
so you give him a knife to defend himself (and hoping he draws blood of the BBUG)
2) of course, BBUG has a machette, so now both of them are bleeding (guess who’s wound is more grave…)
What’s next?
3) do you give your friend a pistol? (and hoping BBUG won’t draw a Kalasnikov a finish him off, as well as all the bystanders…)

There is a good reason why the general consensus has always been ‘no arms deliveries to active conflicts’. It tends to aggravate the situation, not solve it. You can believe Ukraine’s propaganda all you want, but its the Ukraine from where there are plenty of videos of forceful conscription, not Russia. Its almost funny how both sides claim 8:1 casualty ratios in their favor … while most independent military experts agree that its closer to 1:1.
The best solution is really to stop fightings a.s.a.p.. The most likely outcome is anyway the +- the current separation line. The question is only how much more people will have to die before both sides accept that.

Airborne_Again wrote:

So what did they do at Izyum?

Basically treated them as collaborators.

Also, this essentially means that if you support Ukraine getting back to its borders pre-2014, you support ethnically cleansing the people currently living in the Russia-occupied territories. The things have evolved into such a state, that there are no good solutions, only bad and worse.

At some point, one has to step back from ideological solutions and start thinking pragmatically.

Ukraine claims are vastly more credible than Russia claims, in just about every area.

Ukraine needs to manage Western opinion to maintain support. If they are caught lying, they have a really big problem because a lot of people in the West are looking for reasons to drop support.

Russia is way past caring what anybody thinks of them, has nothing to lose, never had anything to lose (because the population was so brainwashed that anything TASS said would be swallowed by >95%, and ~99% in the poor regions which is most of Russia) and as a result almost everything Russia says is laughable junk.

As I said, a compromise is likely along the lines I posted, but it won’t happen for a while.

Referenda are difficult because let’s say Crimea votes > 50% for Russia. The only possible solution is a civil war, at some level. And the message to Russia will be: if you want it, come and take it. Anywhere. And intimidation always works.

Opinion polls changed a lot since Feb 2022.