I think the basic message is that
The narrative about most of the soldiers being substandard is probably right, but there is a sizeable minority who are good enough.
The positive factor is that once you get the Russians on the run, they run so fast that you barely have the resources to occupy the empty territory and mop up the deserters
So the question is how to get them on the run. I think the hope is that with good weapons like modern tanks this can be achieved at enough points.
An F16 is of no special use without all the peripheral “toys” like total suppression (it isn’t stealthy) of air defences. Also it would come with proper air to air missiles, which amazingly Ukraine doesn’t have. Currently, Ukraine can chase the cruise missiles with their jets but they have to shoot at them with guns while trailing them, which puts the jet at great risk from debris, because the 40-50 year old radar cannot see the missile.
I watch the daily summaries e.g. here (that guy does quality stuff, and nice and short) and see nothing contradicting the above.
everybody else can make stuff but at a rate too low for a sustained intensive operation
I don’t think this is correct. The way it normally work (in normal times) is production is done in batches. An order is on the table, often after some R&D to get the newest and shiniest, and that order is produced in a relatively short amount of time, because batches aren’t that large in peace time. The logistics and storage facilities are scaled as appropriate. Then something else arrives, and this is produced and so on.
The rate of production is not the limiting factor. It can easily be ramped up a factor 3-4 in no time, and much more given some time. The limiting factor is storage and logistics. Lots of stuff is needed for production, then a lot of stuff is produced. Storage in particular is wasted money, and is kept to a minimum appropriate for the current production rate.
If asking a manufacturer how much he can produce, he will say not much more than today, due to limited storage facilities. It’s no problem building storage facilities, it’s fast and cheap in comparison, the same for logistics. But no one will do it unless they have to, or someone else pay for it.
Production can easily be ramped up a factor 3-4. War time economy is not needed to do it, but someone has to pay for it, the manufacturers will not. This is exactly what is happening everywhere now. At the same time, it’s only common sense to first use the stuff already made. Send it to Ukraine.
And why should the world go on like before, when there was a clear potential to actually learn and make things better?
It’s odd how different we are. But fun as well The reality in Norway was a net reduction in death rates due to much less other illnesses as influenza in particular. And we didn’t have any of the draconianism elsewhere in Europe. Clearly draconianism doesn’t help one bit. What is there to learn? With Covid the only thing to learn is that life will go on, and that hysteria doesn’t make life better in any way.
Ukraine is different. There we have to do what it takes right now and continue doing so. It’s not something that will pass by itself. If we do what it takes, but only if we do, then life will go back to normal eventually. Hysteria doesn’t help there either though. What will happen to Russia will be interesting. Russia simply cannot continue living in a fantasy. They have to change.
Ukraine is different. There we have to do what it takes right now and continue doing so. It’s not something that will pass by itself. If we do what it takes, but only if we do, then life will go back to normal eventually.
I sure hope this war ends soon – there are still a lot of people still suffering on both sides, and thankfully people trying to help them.
The limiting factor is storage and logistics
Yes, but storage is limited in various ways. Even shells can be stored for only a decade or two, maybe more? Russian ones from the 1950s have been used and many didn’t go off. There is some limit. And for electronics, past experience has shown that old stocks can be problematic too. I think there are many bad design practices (electrolytic capacitors, etc) and that’s assuming the thing is totally moisture sealed.
The stocks get used up incredibly fast in any real conflict, and Ukraine is a huge thing. 100s of km of active fronts. This is big stuff. Russia seems to be manpower and hardware constrained, Ukraine seems to be hardware constrained.
Send it to Ukraine.
Yes; all the old junk is sent there now
Yes; all the old junk is sent there now
That old junk would have been used against Russia no matter where they attacked. Mostly because there are no new junk, or very limited amounts. What could have been done, but isn’t done, is a full scale NATO offensive against Russia. This would have included air forces and navies with serious new junk, but lots of old junk as well. Old junk isn’t necessarily bad, not when we are talking about simpler stuff such as rounds for guns and similar.
Even shells can be stored for only a decade or two, maybe more? Russian ones from the 1950s have been used and many didn’t go off. There is some limit.
I have some experience with testing of aged ammunition. There is a limit, both technically and administratively, but as with Avgas it lasts a long time. In my experience 1960s stuff was functionally OK in the mid-1990s, about 30 years since manufacture and packaging.
All the former Eastern bloc seems to be changing over to Western weapons. Presumably this will reduce Russia’s revenues (no parts or new sales) and cripple its ability to innovate in the longer term.
This missile is IR guided, and the balloon has nothing giving of excess heat.
Light reflections sends tiny infrared? also the missile is locked to the pilot point of view from the helmet
The Navy pilot is now nicknamed “bubble boy”