I would think China is rather annoyed over the abysmal performance of the other members. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine certainly does not help.
LeSving wrote:
What Russia is doing is to try hard to split NATO and the general opinion in Europe by creating FUD. It’s foolish to believe Russia actually would use nukes to rob a few acres of land. If they would nonetheless, then we are doomed either way.
Well, it goes further than that. Being nuclear capable is pretty much a card blanche also for others to do the same, unless their prey is nuclear capable too. There is ample precedence, such as India-Pakistan who are on a MAD regime.
The problem may well be that once other players such as Iran reaches this capability, there is no telling what they will do with it. Currently there are several “small” nuclear forces who appear to be using their nukes to keep perceived aggressors out (Israel, North Korea, France, UK amongst them) vs the big ones such as China, Russia and the US. If Putin prevails with his threats or actual use, it will encourage others.
No, Putin won’t use nukes to “rob land” but he might well do so if he feels threatened to the point of loosing face or life. I don’t think he cares what remains after him at this point.
Think 1945. If Hitler had had nuclear capability during the siege of Berlin, do you really think he would have gone out as he did without taking lots of people with him?
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Think 1945. If Hitler had had nuclear capability during the siege of Berlin, do you really think he would have gone out as he did without taking lots of people with him?
Speculating about what-ifs inside the broken minds of defeated despots is a dead end discussion. We will never know what is going on. So far history has shown they all end up hiding under ground somewhere feeling sorry for themselves and blaming others for their misfortune. Eventually self destructing in silent poof or getting captured. Going out with a bang has only happened in Hollywood movies, or has it? Can’t think of a move that has ended that way ATM. 
esteban wrote:
We went over this many times. Thinking that Russia will meekly accept NATO bases with nuke missiles pointing at Moscow with flight time giving them no time for reaction is supremely naiive.
There are no NATO land bases in Europe with nukes, and haven’t been for decades at this point. European nuclear weapons (French and British) are on submarines which could be anywhere at sea already, and if Ukraine were in NATO, it doesn’t change how close French and British subs can get. US nuclear weapons, when they are in Europe, are also on submarines. The US doesn’t keep nuclear weapons in Europe and hasn’t for some time.
In any case, just like with Cuba, an agreement can be made to never keep nuclear weapons in certain places.
I suspect what the Russians fear most militarily is the installation of ABM systems in bordering states.
Exactly. Also Russia has nukes all over the place. They have nuclear torpedoes and all kinds of stuff. That whole argument is totally hypocritical but the European lefties buy readily into it.
Ukraine used to have USSR ICBM bases but gave them up in that bogus treaty. However, they never had a launch capability; the “codes” had to come from Moscow. OTOH, they built the stuff and they could have for sure “done something”; Russia would not have invaded them had they still had them.
Ukraine is getting the Patriot system and AIUI some versions of that have ABM (anti ICBM) capability.
LeSving wrote:
We will never know what is going on. So far history has shown they all end up hiding under ground somewhere feeling sorry for themselves and blaming others for their misfortune. Eventually self destructing in silent poof or getting captured.
That is true, but then none of them ever had that big red button.
Graham wrote:
That is true, but then none of them ever had that big red button.
Are you sure it is big? And is it in fact red? Is it even a button ?
I’m positive Putin don’t have a private big red button at his private disposal just like that, and in particular not if all of Russia is otherwise in ruin. It would make a nice movie perhaps? Has Putin himself said anything about using nukes? A serious question. Maybe he has, but from what I have seen it’s always one of his henchmen who has played indirectly with the thought, or used big words, but never really spelled it out.
There is a possibility for anyone with nukes to also go completely crazy. Not a likely scenario, but certainly not an impossible scenario. But even if those person should go insane, what is the possibility they even remember they have a big red button in the first place? And what is the possibility it happens in Russia and not France, USA, UK or elsewhere. The possibility the button is pushed somewhere else must be much larger than the possibility it happens in Russia. It becomes a stupid case to even think about.
This leaves us with the scenario that Russia as a state deliberately and in cold blood pushes the button. A deliberate act done by sane persons. Sane persons would think that if they push the button, there will be consequences. Can they just go on as before with those consequences? No. Still not impossible of course, but I’m sure that 99.999999999 % of the fun is telling others we have a big red button. It’s like a 5 year old kid threatening that his big, strong, scary and ugly father will come beating you if you are not nice. The father may very well be big, strong, scary and ugly, but will he actually beat you? not very likely.
Germany is afraid of sending Leopards. What happens next? In comes the big red button. Then people think Leopard = big red button. I mean, even on this board. Proves my point But still, it’s not impossible, it could happen … 
It is rumoured that President Trump pressed the big red button 27 times on his first morning in the job ;-)
More seriously, on the question of tanks – say Ukraine gets the ~300 western tanks it is asking for. What change does this make on the ground, what do they actually do with them?
Do they just start rolling across country and re-taking territory with speed? I’m interested in how they would use them and how Russia might attempt to defend. Presumably one can assume that Russian conscripts would simply flee or surrender when faced with armour in any quantity and a lack of heavy weaponry to counter it. I’m guessing they’re not up to hiding in buildings and hedgerows with shoulder-launched weaponry, if they even have any that would pose a threat to western tanks.
LeSving wrote:
Has Putin himself said anything about using nukes? A serious question.
Several times.
LeSving wrote:
This leaves us with the scenario that Russia as a state deliberately and in cold blood pushes the button. A deliberate act done by sane persons.
Looking at the situation there, a regime which feels threatened to the point of being killed or ousted may well try to take as many with them as they can.
LeSving wrote:
The father may very well be big, strong, scary and ugly, but will he actually beat you? not very likely.
Not fathers, but big brothers can be very agressive. I’ve had to experience this many times in my school days. No difference today. Kids end up beaten to pulp on a quite regular basis just about everywhere. Every threat has to be taken seriously because it is more than likely to come true than not.
While I write this I do remember a father who killed a teacher he did not agree with. In my town in his classroom. That “message” has never been forgotten.
