Under condition that current dictator lives enough
Putin, despite his [insert today’s report of which cancer he has] could live for 20 years. The regime is pretty stable. He is the smartest, most pragmatic, least sentimental (apart from his admiration of the Czars) and most paranoid leader of Russia since Stalin, and very good at securing his 6 o’clock.
You can start with the European vs American definition
There is no “Europe” as far as opinion on any topic goes.
I would not waste bandwidth on debating Trump.
I’ve just finished this. It’s a great illumination of how disconnected a national leader (JFK in this case, but it applies to all of them) can be between domestic and foreign policy.
As I’ve noted before, my view of how US presidents in the present and recent past have affected Russian policy is exactly the opposite of @Mooney_Driver s view, as is my view on Afghanistan.
On topic, and notwithstanding the allegations of Ukrainian bribery, when Biden is gone the Russians will have more to worry about from the US, not less. That is almost irrespective of who replaces him.
Silvaire wrote:
I would suggest traveling widely in the US and learning as much as I have learned by traveling in Europe.
I was a resident of Los Angeles for some considerable time. My father lived there for 30 years. Worked out of Van Nuys airfield.
I also have travelled the US extensively. And @peter if you really think the US defends Europe in the year 2023 then sorry, better take another look at the past two decades of US withdrawal from its European bases.
So sorry, the thread is the Russian war in the Ukraine. It now appears it is the NATO and Russian war in Ukraine which may or not have far reaching consequences for us all.
As a UK taxpayer I am not happy about unelected leadership spending more public funds in far away enclaves whilst the UK sinks further into misery and depression. That includes the Eurovision song contest and the idiots that fly Ukraine flags in their back garden.
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The UK isn’t spending much on Ukraine. The stock of Storm Shadow, about 900, is mostly 20+ years old and a lot of them would have been scrapped (rest upgraded) so these are going to Ukraine. Bought at £1M each, hey… And it is much the same with most stuff, UK and other countries’, which Ukraine is getting. It is 20-30 year old stuff, which the country concerned would have replaced with something newer.
The other thing is that Russia is at its least strong right now. Given time, they will rebuild and – if defeated – will have another go, with overhauled armed forces. So whatever is spent defeating it today, it will cost a lot more in the future if the job is left half done.
In Chechnya, Russia essentially lost the first time despite pouring in overwhelming numbers, negotiated a ceasefire, then engineered a second war once ready for another attempt. 18 years from start to finish. The president is an ex rebel turned pro Russian dictator. Moscow funded the reconstruction, and Grozny now looks nice, but it’s not a very stable or safe place, and especially not in the mountains. Before and after:
On Eurovision, we just watched a documentary on arte about the Ukrainian and Georgian entries, which is really about freedom of expression in those countries, and the moves to bring them nearer the West.
One interesting bit: protests in Tbilisi against the introduction on a Russian-style law to investigate ‘foreign controlled’ news agencies, and in the video at 6:25 a 16 year old Georgian demonstrator is avoiding a water cannon and it looks like she’s dancing with it. I would class it on a level with the man in front of the tank in Tiananmen Square and can’t believe it’s not on youtube.
That’s amazing. I too wondered how you could possibly rebuild something like your upper photo – the standard city scene where Russia has been. They will need to clear it all.
But, looking at videos, Ukraine is full of small houses, often not well built, and who is going to rebuild those?
The occupants are probably gone (dead, or left the place).
My father’s parents lived in a place a bit like that, not far from Prague.
From Wikipedia :
Major efforts to rebuild Grozny have been made, […], though there are claims that construction workers are being irregularly paid and that poor people have been displaced.
Chechnya’s unemployment was 67% in 2006 and fell to 21.5% in 2014.
Total revenue of the budget of Chechnya for 2017 was 59.2 billion rubles. Of these, 48.5 billion rubles were grants from the federal budget of the Russian Federation.
At the time, people would probably have been happy to work for food. I can’t find it now, but there was a Guardian article from 2008 with an interview along the lines of, “my house was destroyed by a rocket in 1999 and I’m still waiting for reparation.” I assume these houses either get rebuilt or replaced privately or eventually get bulldozered by the state. Funding from Moscow was mostly for reconstruction, so the Chechen centrally planned economy isn’t doing well since the money slowed down.
There’s a photo summary of the second Chechen war on the US-funded Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.
I’ve only had a quick look at the various Wikipedia articles, but it’s not happy reading. One point of relevance to Ukraine is that Chechen separatist military leadership gradually changed from Soviet army to Islamic fundamentalist. I suspect that after a few years those that believed in independence died, and most of those left just want peace and to rebuild their lives. Russia has time on its side. There’s little in the Western or English-language press about Chechnya so this is one thing Ukraine is doing right: seeking international support. Not using terrorism in Russia also gives a kind of international moral high ground.
Someone just recommended A constellation of Vital Phenomena by Anthony Marra so I’ll try this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_Russia_Legion
Interesting to see what’s happening over the last few days. Let’s see whether this could grow into something more than a fringe organisation. But could be a complete fake totally UKR group of course.
It looks like a bunch of Russian emigres taking the p1ss out of Russia being totally disorganised because it “knows” Ukraine is not supposed to use Western weapons outside Ukraine.
Like a Bay of Pigs but with support and presumably with their retreat route covered.
It’s a completely useless place for a counter-offensive; for that they need to go south.
Ukraine is denying it 
This is from their head of southern command:
Now Russians (in Russia) are really talking the p1ss
There are calls in Ukraine for Russia to recognise the newly occupied territory as a sovereign country
Things are changing in Russia. Not long ago this would not be broadcast, and the guy would disappear
This is hilarious too (whether true or not, but it sounds likely)
A site worth watching
https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/
The EU is still spending loads on Russian oil and gas and it has levelled off for now.
