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Russian invasion of Ukraine

We have some special rules for this thread, in addition to the normal EuroGA Guidelines. The basic one is that EuroGA will not be a platform for pro Russian material. For that, there are many sites on the internet. No anti Western posts. Most of us live in the "West" and enjoy the democratic and material benefits. Non-complying posts will be deleted and, if the poster is a new arrival, he will be banned.

I am not asking for help

The argument that pro Russian stuff should be allowed here because all information carries the same value is exactly in the same category as arguing that a man who is going to prison for rape can get himself into a female prison, by wearing a blonde wig and self identifying as a woman.

Mainstream media here really struggle with this. The BBC can’t handle it. The Guardian can’t handle it. 99.9% of people can handle it and know exactly what is going on. And it brought down the Scottish govt…

Let me end the EuroGA policy statement with an old communist joke; one you may recognise (even though Slovakia was normally a lot closer to the USSR than Czechs, both culturally and via a heavy trade dependence).

Joe Bloggs goes to Heaven. St Fred (or whoever runs Heaven – it was St somebody I think, and google doesn’t know, but apparently Satan runs Hell) shows him around. In one room there are millions of bells. They ring sporadically. Joe asks what they are for. St Fred replies that each time somebody on the Earth tells a lie, one of them rings. Then suddenly all of them ring! St Fred smiles and says “TASS has just issued a press release”.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

esteban wrote:

‘Russia said it had managed to destroy Patriot missile system – a claim that Ukraine has disputed (but USA confirmed).’

Have the US indeed confirmed this? This is what Reuters says: "A U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system being used by Ukraine likely suffered some damage from a Russian strike, two U.S. officials said on Tuesday, adding that it did not appear to have been destroyed.

All google hits seems to say the same. What are your US sources for it being “destroyed”? There’s a lot of psyops going on, indeed!

ESKC (Uppsala/Sundbro), Sweden

esteban can I ask what your connection with aviation is? Obviously you don’t have to have a connection to aviation to follow the forums.

It just seems somewhat ‘unusual’ that someone who doesn’t have an obvious connection with aviation would hang out here and not participate in aviation topics, but as soon as a post comes up on Russia you’re instantly on it.

It might seem that you’re here to simply put out Russian statements rather than an interest in GA. I’m NOT saying that that is why you are here; rather just pointing out there is certainly an element of that impression coming through (at least to me). I don’t think that in itself would be against the forum guidelines. I’m just curious as to what your interest is (GA or Russia). Is it principally Russia rather than GA and you simply come here to counter what you see as an anti-Russian bias?

EIWT Weston, Ireland

suffered some damage

That seems to be the current news.

But this is just a detail. There is a much wider issue:

Ukraine would be fully expected to put out disinformation as appropriate for military purposes. If I was running it I would be doing that 24/7. They are clearly doing that and are pretty good at it; look at how Russians are getting really jumpy and scared and wondering what will happen next.

A lot they can get away with as expected. For example their estimate of Russians killed, over 200k as of yesterday, is probably too high, because every time they blow up an APC, they account that as +8. The real figure will be between 100k and 200k. But they do say this is an estimate and everybody knows that. Their numbers for blown up tanks etc probably are not far off because there are open source efforts which go around adding up blown up vehicles from photos and movies posted, and there was a general agreement, taking into account obvious factors like not every one gets photographed.

But if Ukraine was caught lying just for fun, nearly all the time, that would undermine (destroy, basically) their constant PR work on getting Western weapons. They depend heavily on Western support, and that includes Western public support. Look at e.g. Germany where Scholz did the minimum until, over time, public opinion swung behind supporting Ukraine, and then he got on with the job.

Whereas Russia can and does lie more or less all the time. This gets exposed time and time again some time later. It is just what they do. It’s the nature of the way the country is run and has always been run. They are shameless, because when you have been doing that job for 100 years, nobody cares anymore. There is no need to crawl into a hole.

The really funny thing is that what Prigozhin says seems to be true about 80% of the time

Back to the Patriot issue, I really admire what Ukraine is able to achieve. Look at the situation on the ground. They obviously acquired intelligence on that big Russian attack, maybe with just enough time to move the priceless Patriot systems to Kiev. It would have been hard for Russia to hide it because each of those six hypersonic missiles needs its own MIG-31 to be launched. But wherever Ukraine locates anything, say there are 100 people who see it, you can reckon several of those 100 will be messaging Russia with the coordinates! That is just the history of any ex-USSR country. In Czechoslovakia – well, the Czech part – it would have been maybe 1%, but Ukraine has had a much harder and more recent breakaway. So anything in Ukraine which stays put for some tens of minutes is going to get a cruise missile. Kiev is just down the road from the Russian border, and can be hit with ground launched S300/400. And loads of people – no doubt mostly innocently – were posting the Patriot “xmas light show” on social media as it was happening, nicely showing the vicinity so it could be instantly geo-located. For this reason the Himars vehicles are being driven around 24/7 and are used mostly at night. The country has to fight the invader while being full of traitors and 5th columnists. And we are not even talking about the eastern regions where support for Putin runs at a lot more than a few %. And on top of that they are trying to arrest corrupt officials, who are on every corner.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

dublinpilot wrote:

esteban can I ask what your connection with aviation is? Obviously you don’t have to have a connection to aviation to follow the forums.

You can easily check on all posts that someone has made. He has been around EuroGA since 2015 and posted on a variety of topics but for the last three years he has essentially only posted on the topics of Covid-19 and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

ESKC (Uppsala/Sundbro), Sweden

Peter wrote:

The really funny thing is that what Prigozhin says seems to be true about 80% of the time

How long until he has an accident, I wonder.

ESKC (Uppsala/Sundbro), Sweden

He is already dead, for practical purposes. Mercader went all the way to Mexico to get Trotsky, in 1940. Nowadays it is just an airline flight

In the meantime he delivers a lot of entertainment. Pity about the Ukrainians who have to fight in his meat grinder. Such a waste.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

dublinpilot wrote:

It might seem that you’re here to simply put out Russian statements rather than an interest in GA.

You absolutely nailed it. He participates in this thread, he was involved in Covid-19 thread and that’s 99% of his engagement. Few other posts related to engines but basically 0 contribution. He’s here to provoke closing the thread which can be easily avoided by a) ignoring him b) deleting his posts c) banning the access.

esteban wrote 8 years ago


I would love to try out flying…
LDZA LDVA, Croatia

Does anyone know what happened to the guy here whose plane got stuck in a hangar in Ukraine? I can’t find the posts.

Interesting developments now. The US has stated that they have no objection to other countries sending F16s to Ukraine. This is big. The main issues seem to be

  • an F16 needs ~20 man-hrs maintenance for each airborne hour (not bad; typical fast jets need 40-50); I would expect Ukrainian ground crews to be well capable
  • parts warehouses etc
  • the plane is of little use without the “goodies” to go with its 150km-range radar (missiles)
  • pilots need training (a document recently published by the USAF found Ukrainian pilots to be well above average, with some interesting comments on mil instrument approaches being different) and an estimate is just 4 months

Obviously this can be solved but not quickly.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

One minute closer to midnight on the Doomsday Clock



The proxy war gets real. They need to do this now because Zelensky knows that when Mr Trump gets reelected in 2024 it is over for them.

Hence his current panic.Absolutely no way will they get a squadron of F-16 in the air as an overfly defense. A pipedream.

Unless of course American boots are on the ground and then the Bear will be unleashed. Spooky times, all predicted but I think those that saw what was happening were labelled conspiracy theorists.

Fly safe. I want this thing to land l...
EGPF Glasgow
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