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Russian invasion of Ukraine

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I have a great suggestion. Russia conquers Ukraine, Europe gets cheap gas again, everybody (outside Ukraine) is happy, and this thread can be locked before it reaches 10k posts

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

everybody (outside Ukraine) is happy

I wouldn’t expect the Belarusians, Poles, Estonians, Latvians, or Lithuanians (or the Finns for that matter) to really cheer that outcome.

Derek
Stapleford (EGSG), Denham (EGLD)

I was being ironic – always a dangerous thing

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Another video from the drone suggests the Russians were trying to bring it down with wake turbulence. They nearly did…

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

I find this to be rather relevant and realistic interview:

Slovakia

Peter wrote:

Russia conquers Ukraine, Europe gets cheap gas again, everybody (outside Ukraine) is happy,

Remember the first days of the war, when the US actually offered Selenski to evacuate him. I wonder what the line of thought was on that, as with Selenski gone, the resistance would have most probably toppled within days. Maybe that was the “convenient” outcome expected behind that?

I guess neither Putin nor anyone else would ever have expected Selenski to stand his ground the way he did. Which changed the whole situation massively.

LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland

rather relevant and realistic interview:

Just watched the whole video.

Most of his points are arguing positions which nobody is arguing against.

Some of it is nonsense e.g. the bit about getting UN support for sanctions, which is impossible given that Russia has a veto on the UNSC And China is playing both sides. China is a military enemy of the West, but there is a symbiotic trade relationship for which there is currently no solution, and probably never will be.

He’s right that Russia may end up keeping some eastern regions (because Russia will have de facto “ethnically cleansed” them, so any remaining population will be the brainwashed Putin lovers anyway, which would continue to create great security problems for Ukraine, for ever), but Ukraine won’t accept that unless they get a really great package in compensation. Starting with NATO, EU, and about a trillion € (much of that money will of course come straight back to EU companies so the actual cost will be a lot lower).

Nobody knows how this will end. Personally I think only a military defeat of Russia will achieve a settlement, including the one in the above para. But there is a widespread fear that if Russia is allowed to keep any territorial gains, they will have another go, in Ukraine or elsewhere. And NATO membership won’t help because – article 5 or not – nobody will actually go nuclear in defence of another NATO member, and the whole world has always known that, quite correctly IMHO. That is why the UK and France have their own nukes.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

China is a military enemy of the West, but there is a symbiotic trade relationship for which there is currently no solution, and probably never will be.

What does that ‘military enemy’ even mean? Military (war) is a continuation of politics by other means. What China is is an ideological enemy to the West, showing (so far) that you can have progress and prosperity without buying to West’s ideals of how should society work. It became hot-topic enemy only when it became strong enough to threaten West’s economic hegemony. I would not oversubscribe to ‘there is a symbiotic trade relationship for which there is currently no solution’. Germany though so about the Russian gas, and despite that, here we are. Usually, right when you think ‘things are so bad there is no way they could become worse’ you get a life lesson.

Peter wrote:

He’s right that Russia may end up keeping some eastern regions (because Russia will have de facto “ethnically cleansed” them, so any remaining population will be the brainwashed Putin lovers anyway

Don’t let your emotions cloud your thinking. The population in the eastern regions consistently voted for pro-russian Ukrainian presidents since Ukraine’s independence, and were deeply unhappy with 2014 Maidan. Being shelled by Ukrainian forces in 2014-2022 did not endear them to Ukraine either. There is no need for ‘ethnic cleansing’ argument, they were always pro-russian and would be surprising if they changed their opinion (anyway, they have seen what Ukrainian forces did to the population of Izyum when Ukraine retook it and would not be looking forward to experience that themselves).

Peter wrote:

Personally I think only a military defeat of Russia will achieve a settlement

Well, we will see. I would point out that while the West is saying ‘Ukrainians are fighting for much more than the Russians, therefore they will win’, the Russians are saying ‘We want it much more than the West, we will just wait them out, once Western support dies out, Ukraine will fold’. Russia has stepped-up war production, west did not, really. As the Russia wanted to ‘solve Ukraine’ on the cheap with their botched ‘Special Military Operation’, so does the West.

Frankly, even the new Czech president (military man, quite anti-russian) recently said that the Ukraine’s spring/summer offensive is their last chance to achieve military success. USA has already achieved its main goals:
(1) weaken Russia economically and militarily, plant a sworn enemy at their doorstep that will drain them for decades to come
(2) weaken Europe economically and geopolitically, so they don’t even think about being independent from USA economically/geopolitically
so there is no real motivation to prolong this furthermore. They will find convenient excuse (China, elections, economy) to leave the mess for Europe to deal with (its their backyard after all). And Ukrainians will learn first-hand (as Iraqis, Afghanis and Kurds who worked with Americans did) what Kissinger meant by “To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal”. Just give it a year or two. I would be glad to eat crow … but feel quite safe in that regard.

Slovakia

What China is is an ideological enemy to the West, showing (so far) that you can have progress and prosperity without buying to West’s ideals of how should society work.

China only proved that greediness of capitalism goes beyond its ability to predict future. They can thank for their progress and prosperity only to West corporations wish to maximize profit by minimizing labor cost, missing to predict how it would backfire in the future.

LDZA LDVA, Croatia

Emir wrote:

China only proved that greediness of capitalism goes beyond its ability to predict future.

Yes and now they are in the quagmire that once capitalism has entered their socialist little oasis it’s like when termites enter a wooden hut. There is no real way stopping it which won’t hurt their leadership, who btw is also profiting massively from the prosperity capitalism has generated.

The question is what will happen if either the West gets another bout of Trumpism which was all about getting production “back home” rather than in cheap countries and actually pulls it trough (which is unlikely as folks will always fall for cheap bargains) or if political developments gets them cut off from their main sources of income, which so far is America and Europe. Yes, Russia also buys a lot of electronics from them, even more so now, but it’s not enough to replace the US market in particular.

esteban wrote:

And Ukrainians will learn first-hand (as Iraqis, Afghanis and Kurds who worked with Americans did) what Kissinger meant by “To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal”.

And Vietnam. And others. With the difference that for now, the US has no boots on the ground there, as it had in all the other cases. So pulling the rug from under Ukraine would primarily mean cutting them off from financial aid. That would likely happen if there is a change of personell at the WH, some of whom have claimed before to be the “master of deals”. Yea, well, Afghanistan found out about that, didn’t they just.

LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland
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