The guy in the photo really looks threatening to the world order doesn’t he? 
Yes, Europe and most of the world has always been a violent and unstable place, and that is the point. Looking inward, the hallmark of the EU, didn’t change the reality of the big, wide world just on the other side of the border. If you review US policy towards Europe and even my own posts in the past, e.g. in relation to European energy security, I think you’ll find that the realization of that in the past was well founded.
When people and nations are dependent on others for their basic security they behave like adolescents, blowing smoke about irrelevant nonsense, vilifying those who support them, pointing the finger at others for not helping them enough, making excuses and so on. It’s unfortunate, but the best path forward doesn’t change.
Saw an interview with a deflected Wagner soldier that deflected to Norway a week ago. Apparently gulagu.net is a hot site for at least some Russians. He said he grew up as an orphan in an orphanage. He then was a conscript in the Donbas region a few years ago. There he was wounded by a grenade. He recovered, and later went into Wagner, 100% patriot. He would be drafted in any case by the Russian army, but as a Wagner soldier he would earn money (which he had none of he said). He was a leader for a squad there fighting the war, but wouldn’t go into specific.
He said after a while he just couldn’t stand it when he figured out how things actually were, both the reality of the war and Wagner. People at Gulagu.net apparently helped him escape, he mentioned one particular guy. Crossing the boarder he got shot at by Russian border patrols, but managed to run away, and eventually ended up at a house and asked the woman living there to call the police. He wants political asylum.
Is he real, a phony or a spy? I don’t know, but apparently he is real. He is in talk with the appropriate authorities atm. It will be interesting to see what will happen to him. As a mercenary he has few (if any) rights as far as I understand. An Ukrainian spokeswoman here was not very found of this guy.
LeSving wrote:
Peace is fragile. Our way of life is fragile. It doesn’t happen by itself. If we like our way of life, we have to do what it takes, on all fronts. Stuff may “pop” anywhere, and at any time if we don’t pay attention.
Yes. There are always people who don’t like our way of life, who are unhappy with something and feel they need to use violence or threats to change it. Peace is fragile indeed.
Just how many wars are going on right now? Of how many are we even aware? And where are focal points which may flare up any time?
In Europe, we may well see further conflicts, threats of which are around all the time. The Balkans are a massive problem still and will be as long as people contest borders and continue to dwell in history about what their “rightful” territory may be. The Kosovo via Serbian conflict is not the only one, only the one which will most likely turn violent yet again, but there are other constant points of conflict like between Bulgaria and Makedonia and others. And it should not be disregarded that in some Balkan states, there is quite a lot of support for Putin and in those places also there is quite a bit of resentment towards NATO and the US.
We are currently focussed on Ukraine because it is the closest one we have and because of the implications of a nuclear power involved. There are many other conflicts, Sudan, Yemen/Saudi Arabia, the Near East conflict where Iran may well reach nuclear capacity in the very near future, there are conflicts in Asia and the long lasting focal points of the 2 Koreas as well as Taiwan vs China. Unless all parties decide that a peace at the cost that there are things you don’t like is preferrable to a shooting war, there is little to keep all of those to blow up eventually.
LeSving wrote:
I don’t know, but apparently he is real. He is in talk with the appropriate authorities atm. It will be interesting to see what will happen to him. As a mercenary he has few (if any) rights as far as I understand.
If he is genuine, he may be of high interest to the intelligence services. If so, then he will probably “disappear” under a new name an be a very busy guy. At the same time, those services may well “leak” the fact that people who desert to offer their intelligence to the west will be treated well, in order to undermine morale and to motivate people to desert.
Silvaire wrote:
When people and nations are dependent on others for their basic security they behave like adolescents, blowing smoke about irrelevant nonsense, vilifying those who support them, pointing the finger at others for not helping them enough, making excuses and so on. It’s unfortunate, but the best path forward doesn’t change.
the current divisiveness is not limited to Europe, it is also very present in the US even though it has died down a bit due to people getting sick of the partisan behaviour following January 6th. Similar divisions are around all over the place, mostly fueled by populists or radical nationalists or ultra left activists, all of whom propose that violence may be a solution to their particular grievances. Maybe the Ukraine situation actually counteracts this in some way, it is “funny” how you see demands by people for increased defense e.t.c. who were formerly all for abolishing whole armies “as they are not necessary anymore”.
The behaviour you quote is not limited towards the US but generally towards the whole system. It is usually a sign of people who are becoming complacent and who don’t appreciate what they have, combined with some sense of religious frevor in certain directions. If belief overrules facts, things get dangerous very quickly.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
If so, then he will probably “disappear” under a new name an be a very busy guy.
The interview was in full person on national TV outside walking in the streets of Oslo. He would have a hard time disappearing I got the impression he would like to work for gulagu.net. So far neither Ukraine nor Russia have asked for him. Going to Russia is death, but so is Ukraine. I think it’s very limited what kind of intelligence he has, but at the same time, it’s his only card. My guess is that he either is what he say he is, or he wants in some way to stop/infiltrate gulagu.net. It would be a really odd way of doing it though. The simplest explanation is often the right one, and he seemed like a nice guy.
because of the implications of a nuclear power involved
That’s been the case since ~ 1960. Nothing new.
The implications of Russia prevailing in Ukraine are simply that they will carry on conquering other countries, and without needing to go nuclear. Russia will not go nuclear because that would finish it off.
That is regardless of whether one wants to swallow the ethics of allowing Ukraine to be conquered; some countries are more willing than others to see that happen. Luckily enough of those who matter are not willing to do so.
I wish this thread was more focused. All the time we have “nuclear war will come; we will all die”. Please make use of this forum wisely. Most forums either prohibit this discussion (on various grounds) or in certain obvious countries it is so divisive (in the general population and presumably among pilots also) that the place would just get smashed up and the admin would tear all his hair out modding it, and then he would get a ~50% exodus as a “punishment” (the actual word people like to use on their way out of the door ) so few dare to try it. One particular site I have in mind Then the people turn up on EuroGA but expecting the same “beat them up is okay” mod rules… and another exodus follows when they discover they can’t do that here.
I think it’s very limited what kind of intelligence he has
Hard to know but I would expect not much. Not many years ago, the only Russian armoured vehicles with a radio antenna were the ones with officers in them. It is highly centralised, which is one reason why a more modern army a fraction of the size manages to oppose quite effectively and occassionally make them run.
Ukraine can already read all GSM calls and it would be surprising if they can’t read the military radio comms. Nowadays basic cipher security is easy to make good but key management is a weak link, and when you have 100k “soldiers” recruited from the poorest bits of Russia, and prisons, key management will be more challenging I’d like to know how this actually works with those Motorola radios.
I think comms security is poor in this area.
Peter wrote:
I wish this thread was more focused. All the time we have “nuclear war will come; we will all die”. Please make use of this forum wisely. Most forums either prohibit this discussion (on various grounds) or in certain obvious countries it is so divisive (in the general population and presumably among pilots also) that the place would just get smashed up and the admin would tear all his hair out modding it
Thank you for letting the discussion take place in the first place. I agree that it is unwise to have circular discussions here. Many arguments and stances a repetitive.
There is a lot if interesting news, analyses and background on the war out there on the net, and it is worth digging the good sources up and discussing them, but that requires more effort than repeating well practiced snippets ad nauseam.
It is my opinion and view that this conflict in many ways follows the time worn trajectory of once acceptable guy, now bad guy.
Saddam, Gaddafi, Bashar, Ayatollah, Putin et al.
As always at the root is the good ole US of A.
The reconstruction and of course privatisation of Ukraine is being organised and established with all the usual suspects being lined up.
Blackrock, JP Morgan, et al. Zelensky has just read out the list. It is a proxy war with the sole intent to destabilise Russia and privatise Ukraine.
Remember late 2022 Zelensky ringing the bell on the floor of the US stock market? That was the intent.
Of course the reconstruction of Ukraine might just be for humanitarian reasons and not Western profit. But I really do wonder…
I will add an edit. This war has been 10 years in the making and the puppets now in place let it all begin..
and Bill Gates organised Covid.
On my bike ride I cycle under some 400kV power lines. They are great at neutralising the nanoparticles. I posted this on the village FB site once; probably half believed it.
What I agree with is that certain countries rather closer than the US are going to tie financial support with reconstruction contracts. EU money will be firmly tied under the table with a lot of strings. Take a look around Greece… The US does that a bit but the US will never get back even a miniscule fraction of what it is spending and has no interest in Ukraine becoming a US State, and nobody does it so openly to countries with their back to the wall, and – in the past – with so much bribery paid out.
