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Russian invasion of Ukraine

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LeSving wrote:

He will lose all support if he does such a thing.

He has pretty much lost all support already. China are distancing, so is Turkey. Most former “supporters” are getting really weary about this thing and want it stopped, before the nukes start flying. Because that would be bad news for everybody.

LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland

These pipelines har really upset the Norwegian government. In addition unidentified drones have been observed over the oil fields. The Navy and the Air Force are now on high alert routinely patrolling the installations. Drone hunting I guess From the national news:


The elephant is the circulation
ENVA ENOP ENMO, Norway

He has pretty much lost all support already. China are distancing, so is Turkey. Most former “supporters” are getting really weary about this thing and want it stopped, before the nukes start flying. Because that would be bad news for everybody.

Right, so that’s why he will likely not use them. I suppose (hope) that China is putting quite some pressure on him to don’t start doing crazy things. I don’t think he’s gone mad or suicidal, then all bets are off. Interesting that he starts calling for negotiations. In spite of UKR not wanting any of this, it seems likely that this signal has been picked up by the US, and secret talks are underway? There much be a lot going on that we all know absolutely nothing about. No idea what the West could give him that he could sell at home though. Donetsk and Lugansk, and Krim? One could argue that he would be rewarded for his brutality, but then again he lost in so many other ways: no more gas to the EU, NATO expanded, brain drain, embargoes, army grossly damaged. And political unrest of course. Plus he can count on terrorist attacks from disgruntled Ukrainians and folks from former Soviet states who lost so many men fighting his bloody war.

Ah well, what do I know.

Private field, Mallorca, Spain

Interesting that he starts calling for negotiations.

I thought the same. It’s an opening move.

No idea what the West could give him that he could sell at home though. Donetsk and Lugansk, and Krim? One could argue that he would be rewarded for his brutality

Having just seen yet another video of what the Russian “army” (not an army under any high level control but a bunch of pillaging raping 10th century vandals) has done, shooting up a civilian convoy just for a laugh, I doubt anybody is in a mood to reward them with anything. Putin must know this, yet he has not put a stop to it. And the constant missile attacks on civilian targets. OTOH, these are echoes of WW2 when it was preferred for Germany to bomb London to bombing RAF bases.

Also once peace returns, Russia will be selling gas to its old customers. Politically, sanctions cannot be maintained. Especially if there is a regime change.

That video showing his presentation audience’s totally sceptical faces is a gem Even the butcher Kadyrov looked unhappy.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

aart wrote:

but then again he lost in so many other ways: no more gas to the EU, NATO expanded, brain drain, embargoes, army grossly damaged

He has also:
- pushed Finland and Sweden to NATO (with MUCH of the Russian border now exposed to NATO – if anyone still cares);
- about to lose Armenia from it’s closer allies;
- lost almost all of the hydrocarbons market in the West (there is definitely no turning back now);
- lost $300B in Central Bank reserves…

The list is long, and quite a few things are irreversable.

EGTR

aart wrote:

Interesting that he starts calling for negotiations

But he didn’t ‘just’ call for negotiations. He asked for them with the precondition that he wouldn’t discuss reversting the anexations. So he’s basically saying that “I’m keeping these areas. If you agree to that, then we can discuss how to stop fighting.”

That of course would be a super outcome for him now. It would be enough to keep him in power. He could go home claiming success. But that outcome seems unlikely on the battlefield now, so no reason the Ukrainians would agree to it. So of course Putin would love it if they agreed to negotiations now. There is nothing interesting in it to the Ukrainians, other than the fact that Putin seems to accept that being able to keep what he already has is probably a better outcome than what he can achieve by keeping fighting.

Peter wrote:

Also once peace returns, Russia will be selling gas to its old customers

I doubt that very much. He might be able to sell to some, but certainly not the vast majority. I find it hard to imagine that the Germans will keep buying from him. I can’t see Austria or Poland either. Once bitten twice shy. Politically it would be very difficult. They’d also need to do a lot of work and testing on the pipelines after they’ve been flooded with seawater. Europe is very quickly moving away from Russian energy. It’s almost done. Pretty much no Russian gas nor Russian oil coming in now. Once we figured out how to do that, why go back other than cost? And we’ll pay any price to avoid going back. Even before the war, there are major plans here to reduce energy consumption. No more petrol or diesel car sales from 2030 (just 7 years away). We’re planning to retrofit 30% of our homes in Ireland by 2030 to make them much more energy efficient. To do this the Government has massive grants (about 50% of the cost of a deep retrofit) for home owners. This is being replicated across the EU as each country tries to reduce their CO2 emissions by 50% in the next 7 years.

There is just no way to do that without a massive reduction in gas and oil usage, and if you’re doing a massive reduction in those, then you simply don’t need Putin’s fossil fuels. The plan for 100% reduction by 2040 you might say is impossible. It’s certainly ambitious. But 50% reduction is a much easier target. Ireland is confident that we can meet that target, mainly through wind energy, and more particularly in the future, off shore wind energy.

We simply won’t need Putin’s fossil fuels in the future, at least not in the sort of volumes that we need now. Not being dependent on a small number of countries for our energy supplies (most of are under non-democratic regimes) will be a good thing for all of us.

EIWT Weston, Ireland

but certainly not the vast majority. I find it hard to imagine that the Germans will keep buying from him. I can’t see Austria or Poland either.

I doubt Poland will

mainly through wind energy, and more particularly in the future, off shore wind energy.

We did this in the climate change thread, but the more wind turbines, the more gas you need to buy to run gas turbines when the wind isn’t blowing. This scenario is gradually improving but still…

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

This is being replicated across the EU as each country tries to reduce their CO2 emissions by 50% in the next 7 years.

There is just no way to do that without a massive reduction in gas and oil usage, and if you’re doing a massive reduction in those, then you simply don’t need Putin’s fossil fuels. The plan for 100% reduction by 2040 you might say is impossible. It’s certainly ambitious. But 50% reduction is a much easier target. Ireland is confident that we can meet that target, mainly through wind energy, and more particularly in the future, off shore wind energy.

This won´t happen without a massive de-industrialization and I don´t think the resulting consequences are obvious to everyone. Moving out of coal and nuclear energy like Germany with no cheap gas available anymore is a road towards economic and social disaster. And it won´t help mother Earth anyway. China and India, also the US, will be happy to pick up the slack in production.

Last Edited by Caba at 01 Oct 21:06
EDFE, EDFZ, KMYF, Germany

Peter wrote:

the more gas you need to buy to run gas turbines when the wind isn’t blowing

Caba wrote:

This won´t happen without a massive de-industrialization

Why? Firstly off shore wind is more consistent than onshore. But even that doesn’t always blow. So the answer has to be interconnectors. It’s rarely not blowing all across Europe, and when that is the case, it’s usually sunny.

So a mix between wind and solar spread across Europe, in a grid that is interconnected, is surely a viable solution.

Countries like Ireland should be able to provide massive amounts of wind generated electricity. More southerly countries like Spain, Italy, Greece should be able to provide massive amounts of solar power. France already does massive amounts of nuclear and Scandinavia does a lot of hydro electric. With an interconnected grid with each country playing to its strengths, it should be possible to spread out power production so that we always have enough from the various sources without the need for gas/oil except in the rarest of circumstances.

EIWT Weston, Ireland

dublinpilot wrote:

So a mix between wind and solar spread across Europe, in a grid that is interconnected, is surely a viable solution.

No!

The elephant is the circulation
ENVA ENOP ENMO, Norway
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