“Stalin was reported as saying, shortly after WW2, paraphrasing, give us 10 years and we will rebuild and then we will have another go”
When was the first go? UK gave aid to the anti-communist forces in the Russian revolution war. USSR made a treaty with Nazi Germany and invaded Poland but only after it was unable to make a specific antii-Germany treaty with the UK.
The effective communist extension at the WW2 victory is the only west/south Russian expansion I know of.
Peter wrote:
And neither can Putin today – except to go into some country perceived as weak.
Realistically he can not go against countries which have nukes. Will the US/UK/France really fully retaliate nuclear if he were to e.g. take out one capital of a non-nuclear NATO state he disagrees with (Berlin comes to mind)? I doubt it. Everyone knows that once this happens it is the end of everything, so they will shout murder and do nothing.
Cobalt wrote:
The plan was to prevent war with Russia by increasing trade between (western) Europe and Russia. It didn’t work.
Well, I think we are not there yet to say it did not. So far, it has prevented Russia from attacking Europe as a whole but particularly Germany and environs, also because they STILL take his gas and pay for it. We should not forget: War with Ukraine in their mind is a civil war of sorts, getting a wayward province back into the flock (former USSR).
One interesting byline from Putin today saying that he does not really care if Ukraine enters the EU, as it is the decision of any independent country to do what they want , a pretty remarkable statement for someone whose government has repeatedly stated Ukraine was not an independent state. He apparently said that he did not care about the EU as it is no military union, as opposed to NATO. So what’s it gonna be?
When was the first go?
1945; we would have liked to go much further west.
Everyone knows that once this happens it is the end of everything
Very unlikely. Only a large launch would result in one from the other side. Nobody today thinks that a single nuke would result in an all out nuclear war. That was the 1960s+ doctrine; the US Minuteman system would launch all the missiles, and was later modded to be able to do one at a time. But nobody will want to find out, because things will be quite unpredictable.
Latest news is heavy losses to Ukraine, due to the offensives they have been doing (offensives are always expensive relative to defence):
My Uncle has lived in Munich for 62 years after emigrating from Lancashire, he has drunk enough beer since to consider himself a German and is more than sympathetic with all things German. When Merkel invited 1m migrants to come and stay i asked him what democratic vote justified this, he replied that we Germans like strong leaders who take decisions, now that rang a bell.
He also told me on Feb 13 that Russia would never invade the Ukraine.
Peter wrote:
Nobody today thinks that a single nuke would result in an all out nuclear war. That was the 1960s+ doctrine; the US Minuteman system would launch all the missiles, and was later modded to be able to do one at a time. But nobody will want to find out, because things will be quite unpredictable.
And exactly this is dangerous. In the 1960ties it was MAD. You fire a nuke, you get one back. Right now, as you rightly say, it is very unlikely that a single nuke strike the size of e.g. Hiroshima or Nagasaki would trigger the total armageddon, but exactly that probability makes it more likely that someone actually will use one, if only to see what happens and if nothing happens, might well use another.
Imagine if Russia would not have put their troops in motion at all, only beefed up the rethoric pre Feb24 and on that day simply flattened Kiews governent area without any warning. Bum, gone is the government he hates, message clear, mess with me, get a nuke, did everyone get the message? Fine, so let’s get back to status quo ante and keep trading oil and gas e.t.c.
What would the West have done apart from getting a collective heart attack? Strike back? What else?
But the big thing then would have been, it’s been done, who did it got away with it, now it can happen again. Regime change by nuke could become not quite daily business but at least a concept no longer beyond rational thought? Now that is a really scary scenario.
Putin has got to believe that of he nukes anyone, all bets are off and he can expect total annihilation of Moscow and all nuclear weapons sites within minutes.
He will also know that if he uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine nature will make sure that Russian forces and Russian allies are going to be receiving a major dose of the radiation fall out. And that’s just a start
Ukraine may not have nuclear weapons anymore but they still have lots of.material to make dirty bombs alongside the guile to deliver them to the Kremlin or any other place they feel would have the desired effect. They would have nothing to lose.
In the 1980s, the US and the UK were following around what they believed were all or nearly all Russian SSBNs, mostly full-time. They probably can’t do it anymore but who knows?
I don’t think Putin will use nukes. He would lose control of the situation.
If Putin used just one nuke, I suspect a lot of the countries who are giving him the “benefit of the doubt” would turn against him, and he’d be left totally isolated. China is already no more than a lukewarm ally. I don’t think even the Chinese would stomach Putin launching a nuke (particularly against a non-nuclear armed country), let alone a country like India.
In the potential use of nuclear weapons, Russia is at a disadvantage because its command and control, important industries and even the population are so heavily concentrated. A decapitating strike on Russia requires much fewer nuclear hits than one on the USA. Also, Putin’s paranoid attitude implies a very small circle of trust and, accordingly, very few trusted escape locations.
@Peter, last week I got a tour on a US nuclear attack submarine, just back from 6 month deployment. They’re still out there in quantity, I assume following boomers as their mission. The older Los Angeles class boats are being replaced by Virginia class as time goes on.
The conditions on board are BTW not something I’d be the slightest bit interested in enduring, even for a short ride 
You’d need to be small and not mind being within a meter of other people at virtually all times. A young man’s game. Like living inside the crankcase of an engine.
