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Russian invasion of Ukraine

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“Soviet Union was offered nothing to withdraw from Afghanistan – they were simply exhausted and their corrupted army wasn’t able stay there.”
Agree. And why did US/UK/etc withdraw from Afghanistan? Why the withdrawal from Vietnam? Why did Napoleon withdraw from Moscow?
The anniversary of the fall of Dien Bien Phu coincided with the second Iraq war, and Vo Giap Nguyen had interesting comments when interviewed on the occasion. (90+ years old)

Maoraigh
EGPE, United Kingdom

Those were different situations which cannot be directly compared.

Napoleon? Probably the same as Hitler. Actually, according to wiki, same as Hitler. Impossible logistics, and everybody’s balls (they were all men back then) would eventually fall off when the winter came

Vietnam in particular was not the simple story which anti-US people believe it was. It was a communist insurgency which the French tried to deal with and it got out of hand, then the US got stuck in but was unable to “win” because it was unable to stem the flow of arms from the North, was unable/unwilling to commit overwhelming force, and it was judged at the time that the only solution (an invasion of N Vietnam) would trigger a nuclear confrontation with the USSR. Eventually domestic public support vapourised (the US had conscription!) Nixon came along, and often a new face can’t be bothered to continue struggling over issues which were valuable to a previous office holder, especially if it brings them popularity.

Also the weaponry was quite different to modern times.

The same may happen in Russia. Even in their regime, each new office holder has no need to continue an old fight to “save face”. And the internet greatly accelerates a loss of public support. The accelerating numbers of body bags do the same; another ~300 tomorrow; these numbers are unprecedented in the post-WW2 era, in any theatre in which the media is interested (so not counting say the Iran-Iraq war where ~500k died, or the countless African wars). Russia is shipping them back only at night, because the trucks are recognisable.

It seems clear that Russia will grind to a halt fairly soon, due to insufficient manpower (too many dead, desertions, and inability to recruit soldiers who are of any use) and insufficient hardware. Probably in the next few weeks (months at the very most) and without making any territorial gains.

Then what will happen, we don’t know. The EU is gradually getting its act together on proper sanctions. The pressure for a change will mount within Russia.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

Then what will happen, we don’t know. The EU is gradually getting its act together on proper sanctions. The pressure for a change will mount within Russia.

Interestingly, my post #305 may have been partly prophetic. I just read that there is a slew of governors’ resignations in the more far-flung parts of Russia. What that means, nobody seems to know, but Russia is not a place where you give up a governorship (and all the perks and kickbacks that come with it) lightly. Instead of amplifying Russia’s importance, Putin may actually have started it’s demise.

Just read this report from the UK govt:

GPS receivers have been found taped to the dashboards of downed Russian SU-34s so the pilots knew where they were, due to the poor quality of their own systems.

Why would that be?

One answer of course is that their fast jets don’t have GPS. The UK RAF fast jets did not have GPS until around 15 years ago; I found this out when Skyforce (the UK outfit which designed the Skymap 2 and the Skymap 3C, and were doing some integration work on stuff like the KLN94, KMD150, KMD550) did a press release that the RAF bought a load of their Skymap 2 handhelds, for installation in jets.

I am surprised GPS is not jammed all over Ukraine. However, there are military jam-resistant GPS receivers (which the Russians probably don’t have).

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

I am surprised GPS is not jammed all over Ukraine.

Because it would probably hurt the Ukrainians more than the Russians.

Emir wrote:

Soviet Union was offered nothing to withdraw from Afghanistan – they were simply exhausted and their corrupted army wasn’t able stay there.

It was the late eighties, so Soviet Union was about to disintegrate – they had to pull out for obvious reasons.
USSR done that after almost a decade in Afghanistan…

EGTR

I know this is a small sample, and you could find gruesome material anywhere in the world, but anyone who believes that some early peace deal with Russia will be a good one, ought to learn Russian and listen to some of the phone intercepts with “family back home”.

Acceptance of Russia into any form of “civilisation” will take generations.

We are also seeing a repeat what was happening at the end of WW2 – smarter people realising what is coming, and covering their tracks:

Unfortunately, Argentina is a long way

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

If the EU does not want to send appropriate weapons to the Ukranians, then we should send something that will greatly reduce the effectiveness of the Russian troops – vodka and coca-cola. Massive drops of these two products where there are Russian troops would greatly accelerate the end of the conflict. All’s fair in love and war.

Fly more.
LSGY, Switzerland

Peter wrote:

Acceptance of Russia into any form of “civilisation” will take generations.

Haha. Franklin D. Roosevelt had no problem accepting Stalin-led horror state of Soviet Union as a partner.
Its just a question of interest and some propaganda.

LHFM, LHTL, Hungary

Sure; different times and a different situation. Not comparable.

One thing which Ukraine has a serious problem with is heavy 5th Column activity.

It was said, in Czechoslovakia, that if there was an office with 10 people, one would be a State informer. In the DDR, the number would be more like 5 and as you would expect the system was very well organised. Although, to be fair, the more you recruit, the lower the reporting quality is going to be because of the desire for self-ingratiation (read: you get a TV a few years earlier).

Ukraine has a “natural” problem with this simply due to the large numbers of Russians, of whom lots will be pro-Russia. On every corner, there is somebody texting the Russians with details of how accurate their artillery was, etc. Fortunately most of these people are incredibly stupid, so they are getting rolled up all day long.

It makes for difficult law enforcement, once the war ends and emergency powers are rolled back. They probably won’t be rolled back very far…

Vodka… I thought Russia had unlimited quantities

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom
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