gallois wrote:
I think that Covid has been the catalyst or even the excuse for some who were already considering giving up, eg due to age.
However, the other way round seems to be also true. The flight schools I know are packed to the gunwales.
I think both above must be true.
It is hugely obvious that while some sectors of the economy have suffered (some very badly), others have done well, especially anything related to leisure. And in particular every wide boy has done wonderfully, especially if on the approved supplier list of [insert your national health service] buying department 
The problem is that PPL training doesn’t generate many pilots, because most drop out almost immediately. If they didn’t drop out, the European PPL population would double every 10 years or so… numbers to support that are here. And it especially doesn’t generate many pilots who fly a fair amount; only a very small % achieve that, and they form the bulk of the “travelling” community.
Actually there is very little “aeroplane talk” on our fly-ins All the people who turn up know how to not crash a plane, etc, so no need to discuss flying much.
I find that hard to believe! In my experience whenever two (or more) pilots get together, they talk about little else. Case in point – we discovered at a get-together that one of our neighbours here is a pilot (PPL). While everyone else talked about – I don’t know what actually – he and I talked flying for a couple of hours.
Back to original topic, for several years Palo Alto was getting thinner. Still lots of flying on a fine weekend morning, but many, many more empty tie-downs – maybe a third of them were vacant, versus none when I bought my plane in 2002.
No change in flying activity here. During the ‘full hysteria’ period in 2020 there was a lull, older people staying home and not flying etc, but I can’t think of anybody who actually gave up flying in that period. Hangars at our airport of circa 600 based planes remain unavailable unless you know somebody – I’m happy to have had mine since 2006 but if I ever gave it up, it’d be rented in half a day.
Meanwhile the airport has built an additional tie-down area for roughly 50 planes, adding to the 200 or so pre-existing outside spots. I don’t know much about it except to see that it is filling up.
UdoR wrote:
The flight schools I know are packed to the gunwales
Just before Corona, it was almost impossible to get FIs to flying clubs. This prevented lots of people from finishing their PPL. They just couldn’t bother always waiting for that new FI to replace the “old” one who was there for a month only before getting hired at some airline. With Corona came a surplus of FIs and it’s has been really easy for PPL students to finish. Still, few of them are actually flying after they have got their PPL, but the schools are filled up.
It’s bound to go back to normal now, at least within 6 months or so. There is no way to make a living flying as a FI in a club. They will either get a real pilot job, or quit flying altogether, same as it always has been.
Around here – nobody. In our club a couple of old pilots have medicaled out, but at the normal rate, nothing to do with Covid. The flight schools paused for a few weeks last year, but that was about it. GA has always been expressly exempt from any and all Covid restrictions, so nothing really stopped anyone from flying.
I think more than Covid a real reason why a lot of people now take their money and run is the exeptionally seller oriented market at the moment. Airplanes have real value at the moment, so a lot of people simply sell up and get the hell out. 2 years ago, their airplanes were worth less than half or even 1/3rd of what they are currently able to fetch, so the temptation to get out while they can without financial losses (even with todays prices not many will actually make a profit) is huge.
Covid related, it looks hugely dependent on how countries restricted their people from flying. Switzerland actually had a boom in GA. And looking at the prices of 2nd hand airplanes, this does not appear to be a regional phenomenon. It should not be forgotten that a lot of people were forcibly stopped from spending their money on all sorts of leisure money pits such as restaurants, vaccations and more, so many may have found the eventual chance to actually spend money on flying or learning to fly while everything else was prohibited.
In general however, I tend to agree with those who see a dim future for GA due to ever growing restrictions and hassle going places. PPR, Handling robberies, massive labour cost on maintenance all do a lot of harm to GA. And this again combined with the currently great market may well put off several who grew up in the sunny days of aviation enough to pack up.
Frankly I don´t know what I will do once my plane gets repaired fully, but the temptation to put it on the market while it has a brand new prop and an egine worth 12 years to TBO and sufficient hours to get the average person twice that time, is massive.
Airplanes have real value at the moment, so a lot of people simply sell up and get the hell out
Surprisingly, I don’t that many selling but locally load are sitting around not flying, it’s a wired market? and the values of those on the market today are super inflated !
I already find buying 2nd hand aeroplane needs some nerves: people are too emotionally attached and will just “stock them” even with zero utility??!!
Mooney_Driver wrote:
2 years ago, their airplanes were worth less than half or even 1/3rd of what they are currently able to fetch, so the temptation to get out while they can without financial losses (even with todays prices not many will actually make a profit) is huge.
THAT is very true indeed. OTOH while I can only speak about what I observe here in the US, Covid has woken up many people to the utility value of GA, so there is a bit of a tug of war going on the mind of people who don’t fly that much but own an airplane.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Frankly I don´t know what I will do once my plane gets repaired fully, but the temptation to put it on the market while it has a brand new prop and an egine worth 12 years to TBO and sufficient hours to get the average person twice that time, is massive.
I don’t know much about the club scene in Switzerland, but why not take the money, run and fly in a club? You don’t seem to be doing that much flying anyway, if you permit the comment.
Peter wrote:
And in particular every wide boy has done wonderfully, especially if on the approved supplier list of [insert your national health service] buying department
I think that GA is taking a bit of a tanking. Owner operators who can still afford it all will remain but the others, not sure. I also know that UL is really on the up, (Scotland) but that kinda precludes fly outs and meet ups in Croatia…doable but I suppose not for the feint of heart.
On the wideboy thing guy tells me today. Daughter a hairdresser, small shop premises, t/o less that 50k per annum, she does NOT pay business rates due to R/V, gets a full 12.5 k grant from the government, takes a 30k soft loan, government backed, plans to ditch that shortly, the old IVA debt management scheme, buys her Dad a new car and pays off some debt that she owed her Dad. His follow up she has never had so much money. I politely informed him that I received the square root of 0, and importantly sought from our Government the square root of 0.
