Peter wrote:
what was that ferry worker doing? Was he a bartender in the cafe?
A chef, I think – they said he was not a customer facing worker. They are supposed to not have contact with any non-IOM crew, and therefore don’t have to self-isolate when on shore this side. There is an investigation ongoing (which presumably will look into how well this is being observed).
That index case as of yesterday has now been directly contact traced to 25 total infections (that’s not to say the one guy directly infected 25 people, he probably infected those near him who went on to infect more). No new cases in the last day, though, and no cases have yet been found that are not directly linked with this index case.
How many would agree:
LeSving wrote:
That’s your opinion. A lot of people have another opinion.
Sorry, but what you do is again pretty close to consicously spreading fake news! If you do an inline link in a statement that “other people have a different opinion”, the vast majority of readers would just assume that the link you quote is a support to your point and therefore stating that someone else has another opinion.
What you quoted, however, does say nothing about the question if current vaccines are or are not effective against all currently know mutation. The only thing the article you quoted says (which is completely in line with my opinion and therefore the opposite to “another opinion”) is, that if at some point in the future it is necessary to create another vaccine against mutations and if that new vaccine would be derived from existing ones, then there is a short track approval process – btw. like with any vaccine that is derived from another already approved one.
The article you quoted does not say a single word about if and when such a modified vaccine might or might not be necessary at all – and therefore it is exactly not a “different opinion” to my statement that the current vaccines by our current best knowledge are as effective against all known mutations as against the “original strain” (if something like this would exist.
LeSving wrote:
(both Corona and influenza virus) … so mutations are evolving and carried along fast and efficient.
Actually not true as well: Flu is a quite stable family of viruses. There are actually only very few mutations of flu evolving. It is a very different situation from Covid.
Once again: The challenge with Flu is not that it is mutating but that it is really a family of virae that has four major genera (A to D; A and B have the most relevance for human infections)
The species within the Genus A are typically designated by the variant of their surface proteins H and N (leading to names like “H5N1”).
By now we know about 20 H and 10 N proteins leading to about 200 possible combinations. Not all of these possible combinations have yet been found “in the wild” and not all of the known ones doe infect humans, but there are still more than 30 viruses in the A genus that do infect humans. These are different viruses and not “mutations” as we discuss in Covid. H5N1 does not mutate. The reason for the need for yearly flu mutations is thus not that H5N1 mutates and therefore you need a new vaccine but that last year you might have been vaccinated against H5N1 and this year against H1N1.
Again: Flu and Covid are very different – they do not have more in common than similar mode of transmission and partly overlapping symptoms of the actual disease. And yes: Both are transmitted by viruses…
i dont think this is quite correct.
Seasonal flu is an RNA virus, whereas Covid is an mRNA virus. A very fundamental difference in terms of how the virus behaves and could behave.
Effectively this means that Covid doesnt do a bad job of proof reading its RNA, whereas seasonal flu does a much less good job.
I have read from the results of a number of studies that Covid is thought to mutate at least four times more slowly that flu.
Also flu is suscpetible to antigen shift as opposed to antigen drift. Shift is a major problem both for our immune system and for the development of vaccines, because the resultant virus looks very different. So far Covid has not shown this ability probably because of its proof reading function. It is the shift as opposed to the drift that in many ways makes flu and other RNA viruses far more dangerous than Covid (potentially).
There has now been one recorded case (in California) of Covid recombination which is a major concern. It seems it isnt known whether this occurred in the “wild” or in vitro, but probably it was not in the wild. It does suggest recombination is possible. The consequences of this occurring in the wild and the resultant virus being viable (which is another matter), whether or not it was more lethal, or more infectious is a worry because it would probably result in current vaccines being totally ineffective. In a way it is far closer in terms of the consequence to shift. Obviously if it was either or both more lethal and more infectious we would have the start of a even more serious pandemic and the potential to be back to the base because I am guessing the new vaccines would be required to go through the full approval process (but who knows maybe the regulators would agree to short circuit this).
Infact it is probable that human Covid probably arose from a recombination and zoonosis event, but of course no one really knows. Fortunately it seems that SARS- CoV-2 doesnt recombine with frequency, and indeed the event may be very rare, but it is one hell of a danger, and I guess the chances must be significantly higher given the number of events taking place with the virus being so widespread. I am also guessing that such a recombination would result in any reasonably successful new virus spreading very quickly for obvious reasons, especailly as the number of people vacccinated increased, because the vaccine is effectively eliminating competition, so a less effective virus would be given an artificial advantage, in a population that without the vaccine, would possible naturally be eliminated because it was less successful. I guess the problem is no one knows which way a recombinant might go, obvioulsy if it was a much more benign virus it wouldnt be an immediate problem, albeit it would just spread rapidly through the population.
At least this is my understanding – happy as ever to be corrected. I am afriad all down to a bit of virology at Uni. in my younger days, but I do try and keep up.
PS I should have said a recombination event doesnt necessarily mean the resultant virus would effectively be a shift. It also seems the mechanism that gives the virus access to human cells is reasonably stable even in shift and dirft events so there is hope the so referred “spike” would still look sufficiently the same.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
Also flu is suscpetible to antigen shift as opposed to antigen drift.
I guess we are saying kind of the same thing in different words. “Antigen Shift” while technically correct doesn’t happen often in flu – had to look it up but I think the last new Antigen in flu that was discovered (H18) is about 10 years ago. For the yearly flu shot (re)-combination of the already known surface proteins is a far bigger topic than a shift towards so far not know antigens.
That’s exactly why “the” Flu virus is a family and not a species from a systematic point of view …
Is the RNA in flu actually a different form of RNA from that in Covid-19? Not just different codons.
tRNA and Ribosomal RNA seem impossible candidates.
Malibuflyer wrote:
“Antigen Shift” while technically correct doesn’t happen often in flu
I agree, but the events we know about are a little more frequent than comfortable. There have been at least the four big events since and including Spanish Flu, which we think killed 100 million people. Drift is far far more common.
Maoraigh – you are correct. Influenza is a negative strand RNA virus. ssRNA viruses which are positive behave I think rather like mRNA and the cell can directly work with this, however in the negative form it must be first converted hence the difference between these two groups. Covid is in the former category, influenza in the other category. I think this is the best explanation of why they behave differently because of the additional steps involved. Of course it is in the replication that in a sense things go wrong and simplistically the more steps involved the more likely for inaccuracies in the replication to occur. It is at the points the RNA has effectively been unwound and converted that the copy may be inaccurate. Covid partially avoids this by cutting out the conversion step, while Influenza does not. So the direct answer is yes the positive and negative forms are different and charectorise these different types of viruses and presumably their evolutionary ancestory.
I think you obviously have a good knowledge of this subject? Is my explantion in a common sense way correct? I would be very interested.
Btw i think the trials with EIDD-2801 look very interesting.
Well, I and my wife had our vaccinations today, both sub-55, our GP practice is well ahead, apparently, when we got the SMS a few days ago we first thought it was a scam…
A very well organised operation. 10 minute slots were assigned when we made the booking on a web page, maybe 5 or so people were queueing ahead of us on the way in. temperature check a the door. Reception checked the names, and ushered us to one of five or six vaccination booths. Someone (in my case, an air force soldier normally based at Brize Norton) asked the necessary questions (e.g., allergies), asked for consent to go ahead and administered the jab. If couples come in together they go in the booth together because they only have to explain everything once. We each got a card with name, date and vaccine given.
After the injection, we sat down in a waiting area with an egg timer set to 15 minutes, and after that we were asked how we felt and were free to go.
Time taken – 25 minutes, maybe 3 of which were in the booth. So that site could do around 50-100 people per hour.
All very pragmatic. Absolutely no paperwork except for the card and some leaflets, btw, they keep electronic records, nothing to fill in or sign. A refreshing absence of bureaucracy.
