Vaccines may be widespread, but it is more likely they will not be. They are not a given.
30-40 years on from AIDS, we still do not have a vaccine.
Personally I’m becoming reasonably optimistic about a vaccine – early on I was not. But there are optimistic noises in the news reports.
It may be that we need frequent boosters or that the vaccine we end up with is less effective than hoped for, but still helpful.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
1. Considering a worse state scenario and this is rubbling on into next year, what are your thoughts on a really severe depression following? Companies like BA are already saying it may not be possible to save the airline in anything like the terms we know in this scenario. Each of our countries will have burnt through enormous amounts of cash. Possibly some countries will committ far more than others, which may mean they surface with very different economies. Australia may be a good example of one economy which, although already in recession, are substantially dependedent on mining and farming with a low population, so could well recover quickly, whereas the UK might suffer to a greater extent. Thoughts?
In Germany at least , I don’t think we will be in for a big depression. The latest economic data does not support fatalism, especially since the recovery seems to be led by domestic consumption rather than exports.
Very many middle class people in Germany actually enjoyed the “lockdown” somewhat, as they had more time for themselves, which in turn led to more consumption. A significant portion of people do not want to return to the pre-Covid economy. Rather, they want to work from home more, which worked much better than many employers and employees expected (although Germany is lagging behind in internet infrastructure).
Of course, if the world catches a severe depression, we will not be unaffected as a still quite export oriented nation.
I heard Germany export model will suffer as tensions with China arise. But don’t make the mistake we did, thinking domestic alone can make a economy work. We are slowly getting out of this nonsense.
Here we are back to listing daily plant closures, like in 2009. Aeronautics and car industry are taking a big hit, and without them thriving, I don’t know how we will recover. Don’t tell me putting solar panels and wind farms 
Jujupilote wrote:
I heard Germany export model will suffer as tensions with China arise. But don’t make the mistake we did, thinking domestic alone can make a economy work. We are slowly getting out of this nonsense.
We are still at the extreme other end of the import/export spectrum. Germany is exporting nearly as much as China, but with a fraction of the population.
I am all for rethinking our business with China. The Chinese are neither trustworthy nor fair business partners, both of which was apparent well before Covid-19.
vic wrote:
When China was neither trustworthy nor fair I wonder how can Mercedes , VW, Siemens and all rely on heavy imports from there to keep inland production running as it does since many years ?
Because China can deliver cheap and money does not smell. And due to that, a lot of production was given away to China as their cheap labour made it uneconomical to produce at home. The consequence was seen brutally when Covid first rose its ugly head…. masks and other medical protection material was simply unavailable anywhere else. So everyone had to send empty passenger planes to bring back the goods from the very place which is responsible for the pandemic. And I bet the prices were anything but right. Demand and availability.
Same goes for electronic base components and for lots of stuff allegedly Western companies sell under their lable. All made in China, on China’s terms and price. As long as they have people who work for eurocents per day, that will continue unless someone stops them. Trade balance needs to be sort of horizontal, not like the face of a steep mountain.
Graham wrote:
Vaccines may be widespread, but it is more likely they will not be. They are not a given.
For respiratory diseases, except flu, vaccines are really not given, on previous corona virus it’s not rosy picture neither: on MEARS no vaccine was developed even with intensive research & budget while for SARS1 there was a vaccine that worked on animal but never got tested on humans because the virus disappeared, so there is a high probability that we will never have one for SARS2 and the main exit route will treatments or mutations
Ibra wrote:
so there is a high probability that we will never have one for SARS2
You’re clearly watching different news and following different science stories than I am!
Most of what I read suggests that the vaccine trials have gone very well, and the scientists seem fairly sure that we will have not just one but multiple vaccines.
I don’t think there are too many still think we won’t have any.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
2. Hypothetically if the pandemic were a lot more serious (it is bad enough) with a mortality of say 20% across the agre range (and it could happen), so 160 million dead over say 18 months what would the world look like? It wouldnt constitute close to a serious threat to the human species, I think that is a given, but what would the consequences be short of that I wonder? To place it in perspective at the rate we are going there may well be up to 4 million dead if it rumbles on and of course with the majority in the older age range so arguably of less consequence to society. This scenario would be worse by a factor of 40. 85 million died in WW2, so it would be double that number, albeit perhaps in a shorter period of time. As a percentage of the world population perhaps a similiar scenario. Each one of us that survived would know several people who would not.
A more dangerous virus would wreak total havoc with humanity and civilisation as we know it.
SARS-CoV2 is our “trial pandemic”. It exposed a total lack of preparedness in almost all nations of the globe on how to deal with pandemic. It exposed how short-sightedness, anti-intellectualism and bad governance can conspire to cause significant damage to modern societies.
What is certainly needed before the next pandemic occurs is closer international cooperation, immediate and uncensored surveillance of new infectious diseases, rapid quarantine measures wherever a new virus breaks out, strategic stockpiles of medicines and medical equipment.
Also, the public hygiene measures that we undertake now need to be common knowledge, learned from an early age. I could even see washing ones hands being replaced by disinfecting ones hands, which is more hygienic unless the hands are visibly contaminated.
Events where humans are packed tightly together will remain to be seen with suspicion even after the current pandemic is over. In case of a new pandemic, they will need to be suspended immediately, no questions asked.
