Norway is well isolated from this whole thing. Sparse and very affluent population, few travellers.
The UK is now mandating a PCR test for everyone entering from anywhere, and isolation until you get a positive result back. Back to the old days 
At least until they know for a fact what this new variant really does
They haven’t got a clue. It may be infectious but there is no hospital data, which is all (well, most) what actually matters for public policy.
The main thing which interests me is whether I can go skiing I am very happy to wear an FFP3 mask on the plane (with Justine, can’t use the TB20…) and especially so on the buses. And enclosed ski lifts.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
We know where it is coming from
No, we don’t. We know it was first discovered in South Africa. They’re better at sequencing the virus so they are likely to discover new variants first, That doesn’t mean it “came from” South Africa.
What’s the collective opinion on Christmas lockdowns?
Witty is expecting vaccine escape, I suspect we’re going to be wash, rinse and repeating.
Pfizer say 100 days for the new variant jab, which is pretty speedy service.
I think the situation varies by country. The UK public are unlikely to tolerate another lockdown and I suspect the government has (without saying it) abandoned lockdowns as a tool. If they tried to impose another one I believe there would be widespread refusal to comply.
Off_Field wrote:
What’s the collective opinion on Christmas lockdowns?
Probably inevitable seeing that several countries are already under a massive 4th wave anyhow. Add the new threat and I don’t see an alternative. But for it to work it has to happen fast.
Airborne_Again wrote:
That doesn’t mean it “came from” South Africa.
Southern Africa as an origin is a pretty good bet at the moment. That does not only include South Africa as a country.
Interesting to see the different viewpoints,
I must admit I tend to think more like Graham for the UK but no one has ever accused me of having a finger on the pulse of the country.
Do we think most of mainland Europe in lockdown and the UK just threatening it in the hopes that some people will comply?
It seems to me like there’s only so many times you can get compliance with the same narrative.
Peter wrote:
Norway is well isolated from this whole thing
We were perhaps, until 3-4 months ago. Right now the situation is higher rates than anytime, and it’s pointing straight up. People with double vaccines are getting infected left and right. Clearly the vaccines are doing very little to stop the spread.
The question now is why bother anymore? The vaccines clearly help each individual (getting less sick, harder to get sick), even though they don’t do much with the spread of the virus. The only slightly relevant answer would be to help a rather inadequate health system from getting overloaded. But I mean, this is completely insane. You don’t stop the society because the health care system is getting overloaded, you inject resources into it, enabling it to deal with the situation.
LeSving wrote:
The question now is why bother anymore?
First of all we have a potentially very dangerous new mutation. Unfortunately again it is too late already, it is there and will spread like wildfire. If it really can break through the current vaccines, we have a potential disaster on our hands yet again.
The health systems in Europe are not usually inadequate, though it varies from country to country. It is easy to say to inject ressources into health system on short notice, which btw has been done in quite a few places. However, you can not really keep the health system on a level to deal with a catastrophic pandemic as this one for a long time, so last year when the figures went down, they closed those ressources back down again. Big mistake as we know now, but predictable.Unfortunately nobody listened to those who got it right and said there will be a 4,5,6,7th wave. Also many did not really believe in the total stupidity of people, generating tens of thousands of cases because they refuse to vaccinate.
LeSving wrote:
Clearly the vaccines are doing very little to stop the spread.
Ask 3 experts get 12 opinions. That has been and still is the main problem. No single official voice which sais what is true and what not. How do you want to plan with this kind of mess.
Most though claim that yes, the vaccines do influence the spread massively. I suppose looking at high vaccined countries where there are very few new cases despite basically most measures gone prove that point. The problem is unvaccinated spreading onto vaccinated, who then spread onto others. People with vaccinations are up to 40-60% less likely to spread and to get infected in the first place, depending whom you believe.
The new mutation is a massive problem, as it potentially can cancel out all the work we have done in the last 2 years. So until we know, there is only one way: Shutting down the airline industry, at least on long haul, impose strict quarantines (in guarded facilities, no self quarantine) and wait until we know more about it. Then it can be decided if measures are necessary or not.
Austria is in total lockdown also for vaccinated people. Lots of countries stop flights from affected countries, but as the new version has already reached almost everywhere, either they will simply drop those restrictions (or rather stop basing them on single cases) or they will have to lock down again.
Locking down is the only way to get infections down. Unfortunately there is no other way. But politicians will now bustle and hustle but not decide anything until it is again too late and we are overrun by the new variant.
The only way now to really make a difference would be to impose vaccinations on everyone. But that won’t happen. Europe has once again proven to be a weak and undisciplined to even consider something like this. Well, I suppose it is a human right to refuse help and die, but it is not to murder other people in the process. Sooner or later, the majority who has done everything to protect society will loose patience. The resulting conflict may well become bloody.
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