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Corona / Covid-19 Virus - General Discussion (politics go to the Off Topic / Politics thread)

Do these graphs really show the number people dying out of 100,000 people who have tested positive for coronavirus? The case-fatality rate is very low.

To be plausible, they show how the number of people dying who who have tested positive for coronavirus out of 100,000 people.

Last Edited by Cobalt at 20 Nov 14:32
Biggin Hill

There are tables containing the raw data in the link above. I think the deaths are per 100,000 vaccinated or unvaccinated people. Not per 100,000 vaccinated/unvaccinated people who have tested positive. Slept badly last night so won’t be surprised if someone points out that I’m misreading something here.

Last Edited by kwlf at 20 Nov 14:46

The most recent version is on the ONS website.

For week 46, Table 6 on page 23 shows the data.
The note just below it says:

1
Comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness
against COVID-19 infection. Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is
summarised on pages 5 to 8 in this report.
The case rates in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are unadjusted crude rates that do not take into account underlying
statistical biases in the data and there are likely to be systematic differences between these 2 population groups. For example:
• people who are fully vaccinated may be more health conscious and therefore more likely to get tested for COVID-19 and so
more likely to be identified as a case (based on the data provided by the NHS Test and Trace)
• many of those who were at the head of the queue for vaccination are those at higher risk from COVID-19 due to their age,
their occupation, their family circumstances or because of underlying health issues
• people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to social
interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19
• people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period
of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus for a few months which may have
contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks

Pages 5 to 8 quote (with medium confidence) that fully vaccinated people are at worst half as vulnerable to infection compared to the unvaccinated. The “medium confidence” presumably comes from incomplete correction for the points above, but at least they tried.

So although fully vaccinated people may be just as infectious as the unvaccinated, once infected, they are less likely to get infected.

So fully vaccinated people as a group are less likely to transmit the disease. This is not the first time somebody has made that point in this long thread, yet we still get posts saying that vaccination does nothing to reduce transmission.

Last Edited by DavidS at 20 Nov 14:55
Booker EGTB, White Waltham EGLM

The second note to the same table addresses the issue of which 100,000 is which.

2 Case rates are calculated using NIMS – a database of named individuals from which the numerator and the denominator come
from the same source and there is a record of each individuals vaccination status. Further information on the use of NIMS as the
source of denominator data is presented on page 15 of this report and in the further resources below.

My reading of that is that they have the data to estimate rates per 100,000 for each group separately, and so that is what they report.

Last Edited by DavidS at 20 Nov 15:02
Booker EGTB, White Waltham EGLM

I have read the logic from the ONS posted above. Some of that “logic” seems be really scraping the barrel there.

Look at the third one. Whilst Peter’s example might work for some terrified older people living in the county keeping their distance, you can’t have it both ways. Let’s assume they are all thick and going to the German rally (photo above) or cramming into “Spoons” (translation for our European members – “Spoons” is a derogatory term used by the left wing press for those people who visit the Wetherspoons pub chain – large pubs with cheap beer/food/lots of Covid etc). If the thick unclean non-vaxxed are putting everybody at risk, whey are their case numbers not ballistic?

Look at the last one. It’s saying the unvaxxed are not catching Covid as they have natural immunity due to an infection. Well isn’t that how the human race has dealt with mild respiratory viruses for the last few million years. The immune system?

I would expect the unvaxxed rates to be far higher. I am open to some of David’s arguments however.

United Kingdom

Malibuflyer wrote:

Those German numbers look exactly as expected given the general level of stupidity in Germany – one week ago in Germany …

Yeah, lets all hide away and not have any fun eh?? Sorry, but looking at the average age of the those in that photo and remembering that vaccination is available to prevent serious illness, please explain the problem you seem to have with anyone doing anything remotely enjoyable??

I really cannot understand the constant cry by some to impose martial law on others.
If you want to shut yourself away, you go ahead. Some of us want to live out lives normally.

Archer-181 wrote:

“Spoons” is a derogatory term used by the left wing press

No it’s not, pretty much everyone calls it Spoons, it’s the common slang name for the place, nothing to do with the press, left or right wing. It is a completely neutral nickname for the place. Wetherspoons also were pretty good at trying to reduce transmission in their premesis, no ordering at the bar, ordering via the app only (so no need to handle money), screens between each table, etc.

Last Edited by alioth at 20 Nov 20:15
Andreas IOM

Yes you are right Alioth. I call it Spoons too! I think I was recently triggered by the Guardian calling it “Spoons” – and the Guardian really hates Tim Martin which makes me want to go even more often!

Last Edited by Archer-181 at 20 Nov 20:49
United Kingdom

A quick Google confirms that the Telegraph and the Daily Express call it ‘spoons’ so its not a left wing thing, though disliking the boss may well be.

Archer-181 wrote:

I have read the logic from the ONS posted above. Some of that “logic” seems be really scraping the barrel there.

I think they are professional statisticians pointing out that the data is biased, and warning against jumping to “the obvious” conclusion. It’s also worth noting that they did not draw any opposite conclusion. Putting raw data out there is part of their job. Warning about its quality is an essential part of that.

Archer-181 wrote:

Look at the third one.

• people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to social
interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19

A lot of the unvaccinated are school children and young adults. It is reasonable to suspect that they behave very differently from the significantly older vaccinated population. It’s less obvious which way that biases the data.

Archer-181 wrote:

Look at the last one

• people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period
of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus for a few months which may have
contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks

Again, a lot of the younger unvaccinated will have had asymptomatic infections, and are very likely to have some immunity.

Archer-181 wrote:

I am open to some of David’s arguments however.

And I hope I am open to yours! For me the bottom line is that it’s very hard to draw conclusions now, apart from a couple of obvious (IMHO) points:
1) Vaccination means fewer people die, and so we have more choices than we did before.
2) We have to find a better way of living with this virus, we can’t just lockdown forever.

…and to end on a more positive note, agreeing with you :-)
Archer-181 wrote:

It’s saying the unvaxxed are not catching Covid as they have natural immunity due to an infection. Well isn’t that how the human race has dealt with mild respiratory viruses for the last few million years. The immune system?

Absolutely! The only good thing about this virus is that young people are (relatively) unaffected and will acquire immunity. 60 years from now, this should all be a distant memory.

Let’s hope the “next” virus is as “kind”!

Last Edited by DavidS at 20 Nov 21:46
Booker EGTB, White Waltham EGLM
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