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TAFs

I have been told that the majority of TAFs for the UK are produced by someone at the Exeter Met Office, so are open to that persons interpretation at the time. I used to have a local Military field nearby that had their own forecaster and found it helpful on occasions.

Does anyone know what stations have their own forecaster?

How do the rest of Northern Europe work?

Thanks

Norman
United Kingdom

How do the rest of Northern Europe work?

The DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst --- German Weather Service) currently has dedicated staff at the these aerodromes. 16 offices is not bad and provides a good geographical coverage.

I find TAFs to be quite good most of the time. Much better than the danger reports like icing that are based on the cover-your-a** philosophy. Even more annoying are the 0900 telephone briefings. Usually the quality of the information and the personel is excellent but for the same CYA reason I hardly ever have a call where they don't insist on a disclaimer that they discourage me from flying -- admitted I don't usually call them on CAVOK days.

Belgium: civilian forecasts are made from below the EBBR control tower, but I don't know where the military forecasters are, or how many. Regional airports like EBAW and EBOS do have a met office, too. I was always told we G/A'ers should prefer the military TAF's because they are more aimed towards low-level flying.

EBZH Kiewit, Belgium

In the UK, all TAFs (AFAIK) come from the Met Office at Exeter.

The office waits till the airport in question has produced a METAR, before they do the TAF.

so are open to that persons interpretation at the time

That will be the case no matter where or who does it. France has recently moved to computer generated TAFs which French pilots who I know are very critical of (poor accuracy).

I am no weather specialist but I think weather forecasting is done mostly with 3D computer models and with data arriving from all over the place, especially satellite images on which the positions of fronts are readily visible. So it doesn't matter much where the forecaster is sitting - provided he has an idea of local factors affecting a particular airfield.

I've been flying for 12 years and find TAFs generally accurate, apart from

  • fog formation (always will be hard to forecast until it actually starts to form)

  • any weather pattern which is convective but has little discernible lateral movement

  • If in doubt you throw in a PROB30 TEMPO and that CYA for all purposes

  • the shorthand for "I think it will happen" is PROB40

  • the recent French ones

Nowadays, virtually all free weather websites (English language ones) use data from the freely accessible US-run GFS 3D model. This is true in the UK too because the UK Met Office does not give non-commercial access to its 3D model. However METARs & TAFs always come from national weather offices, regardless of which website they were downloaded from.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Yes, a TAF doesn't really depend upon being able to see out the window although an ATIS does.

EGTK Oxford

Yes, a TAF doesn't really depend upon being able to see out the window although an ATIS does.

Looking out of the window gives you a METAR, or the ATIS info

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

I always love the 'the machine is not reporting any cloud overhead' reports. Perhaps you could just look? Even at night there are either stars, or not.

EGTK Oxford

•fog formation (always will be hard to forecast until it actually starts to form)

I don't know for UK but I noticed that in last two-three years fog was quite often correctly forcasted in my area. I guess that predicting temperature and due point based on trends as well as corect forcasting the wind highly increases the accuracy of fog prediction.

LDZA LDVA, Croatia

Peter,

France has recently moved to computer generated TAFs which French pilots who I know are very critical of (poor accuracy).

Probably because computers don't strike. However, if they still depend on the METAR's for the initial TAF.... If they do this without human supervision, I imagine their TAF's must be horrible. I'll have a look, as this was news to me.

What I personally regard as much more dangerous is that in several countries METARS are produced remotely. There is no replacement at all for an observer in any European airport, yet it is done in some places (Netherlands I believe and some others). Obviously as a consequence, TAF quality will deteriorate as well.

Switzerland: Up to now, TAF's were issued in Zürich, Geneva and Locarno for the regions concerned. This will now be centralized to Zürich. Major airports (ZRH/GVA) still have observers, most minor airports have automatic METARS motitored by the ATCO in charge at the spot.

It is correct that in order to issue a TAF, the forecaster needs two METARS by the airport in question. Thereafter and with the use of model data and experience, TAFs are produced.

LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland
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