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PA28R G-EGVA missing UK to Le Touquet (and AAIB discussion)

Peter wrote:

I’d say it depends on whether your passenger is your other half and whether you would like her to fly with you ever again

If flying alone, slow right down and carry on, unless it is going to be icing conditions in which case go elsewhere (unless ice protected). But it depends on the detail.

In UK airspace, the IMCR covers it legally.

@Peter, what about the embedded convective clouds?

EGTR

embedded convective clouds?

This one did not have a single lightning strike nor sit on 40C deg dew point at the surface !

Call me reckless but alone I would fly through with zero hesitation, wing level throttle back on speed, worst case exit laterally, I would not fly through under 2500ft LTMA at 2300ft though !

As Peter mentioned you never do that with pax, they would never fly with you ever again but I suppose any current IMCR pilot “can cope” with inadvertent or conscious choice into convective clouds you find in Northern Europe

The biggest risk is getting cornered into airspace, some of it happened in this, you should never be in that situation, especially in the s***y airspace we have in UKSE…

Last Edited by Ibra at 12 Apr 21:06
Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

what about the embedded convective clouds?

If you are flying along, it all looks just plain grey, if solid IMC You can tell what’s in it. It is only by preflight action (or Golze ADL) that you might know what to expect.

Most IMC is convective to some extent, and that stuff definitely would have been.

If the TCUs are spaced out, and usually they are, then you may see thinner bits and obviously aim for those.

At well below Va it should be safe structurally, so long as you are sure you won’t lose control. An autopilot is very likely to disconnect so you need to be able to fly by hand.

In a PA28, I would not risk it. The structure is very uninspiring when you see one opened up – compared to the tank-like spar of a TB20. But not everyone has a TB20…

I would have climbed to FL150+ but in the UK that’s impossible unless already with London Control and “in the system”. Otherwise, forget it; it will take so long to get cleared you will be in Germany before they help you.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

In a PA28, I would not risk it. The structure is very uninspiring when you see one opened up – compared to the tank-like spar of a TB20. But not everyone has a TB20…

Is it really weaker? Both are certified for 4.4g. Only because one looks stronger it does not mean that it’s really stronger. The C172 can only handle 3.8g but its struts make it look like it would take a lot more to fold its wings up. While I can see that one wants to make something especially strong I can’t see why one would spend precious payload on something that doesn’t translate into customer value. That customer value could be a parachute or a visible piece of the structure or a big fat 6g in the data sheet.

EDQH, Germany

If we judge airframe strength based on in flight structural failure, the PA28 compares favourably despite the eddy current spar AD resulting from the PA28R spar failure in Florida. In fact the PA28-161/181 remain amongst the safest types in the GA fleet. The Cessnas with wing struts also have an excellent record for structural integrity in flight.

Oxford (EGTK), United Kingdom

That customer value could be a parachute or a visible piece of the structure or a big fat 6g in the data sheet.

Why not keep it simple? Stormscope + ADL? 5k€ + 40€/month or just VMC & Avgas

On the PA28, I mostly flew an Archer2 even in nastier weather than the Mooney or the Cirrus, they never get anywhere near 3G as long as the speed stays in the green and attitude stays in the blue, that Arrow seems to be way more stable and capable than Archer2? of course, the TB20 has the highest wing loading by far and it will sit better in turbulences but it’s marginal difference in a case of loss of control (didn’t one TB20 break in weather after flying all over the place in a thunderstorm?)

On the loss of control, this is likely to happen in instructor/student L2K flight scenario: LHS likely not qualified for IFR, RHS likely IFR rated but was not actually planning the flight? or flying aircraft? or never flown it into clouds or storms from RHS? or likely in this case never flown that aircraft ever before as it was a private IFR aircraft but not flown by it’s owner, the RHS/LHS seemed to rent it for that L2K flyout and likely no idea how “to use it”?

These things are not trivial as they seem, anyone who rented an unfamiliar aircraft and flew it straight into difficult weather or complex airspace would have had one or two brain farts, unless it’s the standard 6 packs layout with IFD/GTN or the standard G1000 glass cockpit…usually, you tend to need few hours in an aircraft to get used to it before flying it safely in weather, especially, convective clouds or system minima sitting in RHS when LHS is knackered !

You won’t get anywhere near this tricky situation when flying own or familiar aircraft with plenty of class & instrument currency, the risk profile is very different

Last Edited by Ibra at 12 Apr 23:35
Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

What I find a bit surprising is that the tracking was lost suddenly at ~7000ft. This is possible but the sudden disappearance might indicate a structural failure. Of course the radar track (every 5 secs or so) will confirm that or not, but we won’t get that for years.

Probably some of the private individuals who run the FR24/FA receivers will have more data than the website publishes. Whether this will ever get out I don’t know. I would expect them to be prohibited from publication, but it may leak out – like flight plan and other data sometimes leaks out via ATC.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Every flight to LFAT that morning disappeared from FR24 and FA in roughly the same place, so quite possible that’s not where the flight ended.

Nb
United Kingdom

Yes many FR & FA disappear mid-channel while VFR

The pilots have been named by the police now

Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

Ibra wrote:

Yes many FR & FA disappear mid-channel while VFR

I disappeared after what appears to be when Lille changed my Squawk.

Qualified PPL with IR SP/SE PBN
EGSG, United Kingdom
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